EX INVEST 94L Thread

[hurricanetrack]

This also fits well in to the recent trend of weak, short-lived, sheared and no-go systems since Felix. Why should the trend reverse now? In other words, why SHOULD we see development? Just because it is October and this region is favored over history, does not mean it has to happen.

At this point, my instincts tell me that very little will happen here and October will not live up to the CSU forecast. Why would it?

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A BROAD 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N82W. THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS N OF 12N W OF 78W. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS
JUST E OF BELIZE WITHIN 60 NM OF 16.5N87W. THE SURROUNDING
BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE INDICATED ABOUT A 2-3 MB DROP IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION REMAINS RATHER ILL DEFINED AND THE SFC WINDS REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. NONETHELESS...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.

$$
WILLIS


http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Cyclenall]

yes, recurve

the atmosphere is unfavorable for development as there is not anything to develop

So if a tropical wave were to come by (which was stated there won't be), then there would have been a high chance at tropical cyclone formation?

[jinftl]

yes, recurve

the atmosphere is unfavorable for development as there is not anything to develop

So if a tropical wave were to come by (which was stated there won't be), then there would have been a high chance at tropical cyclone formation?

My question is, if the convection persists, pressures continue to fall, and organization improves, is there still a 'tropical wave' needed to seal the deal on development?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Two things to why I think this is the next storm. The CMC does nothing with this and Floater 2 still says "not active".

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF Animation

It does have it as a storm.Track is from NW Caribbean to Florida Straits.

[Cyclenall]

My question is, if the convection persists, pressures continue to fall, and organization improves, is there still a 'tropical wave' needed to seal the deal on development?

I don't think so, it just would have been a lot better and faster if a TW came by and merged like Wilma I think. It takes longer plus you need more convergence (to make of for lack of a TW?) for that to form. That's how I'm viewing this.

[RL3AO]

if the Canadian is not developing a TC, then it is likely not going to develop. It forms almost any surface vortex into a hurricane with the downgrades they made to their model. Thus, if they cannot form anything, it probably not going to form

The fact that no other model forms a TC should also be quite telling. This is a broad system; thus, the models can resolve it

Now that is logic.

[cycloneye]

And the next wave is 5 days away.The one that is labled as invest 91L at 54w.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 071839
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC SUN OCT 7 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071007 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071007 1800 071008 0600 071008 1800 071009 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 82.3W 18.1N 82.9W 19.1N 83.9W 20.0N 84.9W
BAMD 17.3N 82.3W 18.0N 82.8W 19.0N 83.5W 20.0N 84.3W
BAMM 17.3N 82.3W 18.2N 82.9W 19.3N 83.7W 20.3N 84.7W
LBAR 17.3N 82.3W 17.8N 82.5W 18.8N 82.9W 20.3N 83.2W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 45KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071009 1800 071010 1800 071011 1800 071012 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.6N 86.2W 20.8N 88.7W 19.8N 90.5W 18.2N 92.8W
BAMD 20.7N 84.8W 21.7N 84.8W 22.9N 82.6W 24.7N 76.9W
BAMM 20.9N 85.6W 21.3N 87.0W 21.4N 87.7W 21.1N 88.2W
LBAR 21.7N 83.1W 23.9N 81.2W 26.2N 77.1W 30.8N 69.7W
SHIP 66KTS 80KTS 80KTS 77KTS
DSHP 66KTS 69KTS 42KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 82.3W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

Seems some of the models are showing a loop over the Yucatan. The sterring currents must collapse once 94L makes near the Yucatan tip. Not comparing intensity at all w/ Wilma, but I remember the models collapsing/looping w/ Wilma once she reached the Yucatan tip. Wilma basically stalled for quite a while w/ some models going W into Yucatan and NE to SFL. Seems the steering currents are somewhat similiar w/ 94L. Basically 2 paths this time of year: W into Yucatan or NE between SFL and Cuba.

[Derek Ortt]

the invests have not been disappointing at all this year.

The invests have just been excessively hyped by some here (i.. comparing this invest to Wilma... when I am feeling down, I will remember that for some comedic relief).

Maybe what we all need to o is take a step back... realise that invests are areas that have a CHANCE at TC formation, and that most invests will not amount to anything

as for this invest, not a surprise that the convection has not really persisted. still lacking the surface convergence necessary for formation

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm not an expert so I don't know
enough to correctly compare something to wilma or not,
especially when other factors trick me into
thinking. What I was saying was based off
the few things I know, not off of any
desire to cause hype. Now when a Professional
corrects me it helps explain things better. But
I did not try to hype something, I just point
stuff out when to my little knowledge it seems
that some factors will result in some consequence.


Now when someone explains it it makes it
more understandable. So thank you Derek for
the explanation.

[HURRICANELONNY]

the invests have not been disappointing at all this year.

The invests have just been excessively hyped by some here (i.. comparing this invest to Wilma... when I am feeling down, I will remember that for some comedic relief).

Maybe what we all need to o is take a step back... realise that invests are areas that have a CHANCE at TC formation, and that most invests will not amount to anything

as for this invest, not a surprise that the convection has not really persisted. still lacking the surface convergence necessary for formation

If your talking about this invest. It sure is persisting.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS Animation

Distint from the past runs,at this 12z one,it shows a little bit more the system,although still is broad.

[Recurve]

No troughs, fairly high pressure over the whole US, while the low is broad and pretty far south. that wouldn't be a SFLA track even if it did get really going.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO keeps low pressure down in the Caribbean through the 10 day period.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7100712!!/

[Blown Away]

Kind of early to say that, 94L is likely to be drifting around in the NW Caribbean for the next 3-5 days. Trough will be moving in within that time, the question will be is it strong enough to pull 94L N.

[alan1961]

Almost the whole caribbean is popping with convection at the moment, you'd think something would have to give soon!

[cycloneye]

5:30 TWO

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN
BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE AREA...BUT THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA
ON MONDAY...IF NECESSARY.