Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Normandy]

From what we know, Wilma should have been the most intense to fly through (Most rapid rate of deepening, most intense convection, etc)....but Recon flough through it as it bottomed out.

In contrast, a storm with much higher pressure, a slower rate of deepening, and less intense convection had turbulence too intense for recon.

Recon just hit an intense updraft or downdraft while in the eyewall that one mission. They aborted for precautionary measures in case there was damage to the structure of the aircraft, not because the turbulence itself "scared" recon away. That's why the aircraft has been inoperable since then because they are likely still examining it for structural damage.

My goodness you are just so argumentative arent ya?
Recon left Felix because the turbulence PREVENTED them from safely completing their mission. I don't see what you are getting at with that post. And im not saying Recon was scared to go into the storm or something silly like that....they did the right thing and left the storm because of the turbulence. They had the same issue with Dean in his southern eyewall but to a lesser extent. Im done, I'm about to fall asleep as I type this.

I just find it interesting that the the most intense storm recorded in the ATL with the most intense deepeing rate recorded in the Atlantic produced less turbulence than Felix.

[Swimdude]

I know one-liners are usually inappropriate, but, here I go:

Holy crap, guys.

[hial2]

Well, time for bed. Second hurricane, second late night watching history occur.

Land is taking its toll on Felix now and it should fall apart pretty fast....nevertheless, DEVESTATING hit on Nicaragua.

Prolly the last time will see Felix.

Yep, 165-175 sustained plus 16 traveling speed..I'd say 200 mph sustained winds in the north quadrant is not out of the question..

[Coredesat]

I just find it interesting that the the most intense storm recorded in the ATL with the most intense deepeing rate recorded in the Atlantic produced less turbulence than Felix.

Fairly sure that was due to the fact that Wilma had essentially completed its RI phase by the time recon extrapolated the 884 hPa pressure (which was confirmed by sonde and reduced to 882 using the "1 hPa for every 10 kt" rule).

[superfly]

From what we know, Wilma should have been the most intense to fly through (Most rapid rate of deepening, most intense convection, etc)....but Recon flough through it as it bottomed out.

In contrast, a storm with much higher pressure, a slower rate of deepening, and less intense convection had turbulence too intense for recon.

Recon just hit an intense updraft or downdraft while in the eyewall that one mission. They aborted for precautionary measures in case there was damage to the structure of the aircraft, not because the turbulence itself "scared" recon away. That's why the aircraft has been inoperable since then because they are likely still examining it for structural damage.

My goodness you are just so argumentative arent ya?
Recon left Felix because the turbulence PREVENTED them from safely completing their mission. I don't see what you are getting at with that post. And im not saying Recon was scared to go into the storm or something silly like that....they did the right thing and left the storm because of the turbulence. They had the same issue with Dean in his southern eyewall but to a lesser extent. Im done, I'm about to fall asleep as I type this.

Dude, extreme turbulence is caused by updrafts and downdrafts in the eyewall. They are random and recon during that one mission must have hit a really bad one (4 G's according to Jeff Masters in his blog). That doesn't mean Wilma didn't have updrafts and downdrafts just as intense or more intense, it just means that recon didn't come across them because it is RANDOM. It's obvious they aborted due to possible structural damage to the aircraft because that aircraft hasn't flown since that mission.

[Category 5]

This landfall is historic.

This will be the first time in the atlantic basin since records began that 2 category 5 Hurricanes have made landfall in the same year.

[Normandy]

Well, time for bed. Second hurricane, second late night watching history occur.

Land is taking its toll on Felix now and it should fall apart pretty fast....nevertheless, DEVESTATING hit on Nicaragua.

Prolly the last time will see Felix.

Yep, 165-175 sustained plus 16 traveling speed..I'd say 200 mph sustained winds in the north quadrant is not out of the question..

No, no, no.
Not the case.
Felix prolly has AT MOST 175 mph sustained winds (and thats prolly high) in his northern quad...NHC has him at 160. No where near 200 sustained....but gusts are prolly pushing 210 or so. The advisory wind speed takes into accound forward motion....So ideally these would be the winds in Felix's N and S quad:

N QUAD: 160 mph (Operational intensity)
S QUAD: 120 mph


Thats not necesarilly the rule though....Hurricanes Celia and Katrina (FL Landfall) both had the most intense weather in their SW quads.

[Normandy]

I just find it interesting that the the most intense storm recorded in the ATL with the most intense deepeing rate recorded in the Atlantic produced less turbulence than Felix.

Fairly sure that was due to the fact that Wilma had essentially completed its RI phase by the time recon extrapolated the 884 hPa pressure (which was confirmed by sonde and reduced to 882 using the "1 hPa for every 10 kt" rule).

Very true....they did manage to catch Wilma at peak intensity....pretty lucky.
Were they not in the storm prior to their 884 measurement (Was that the first eye pass?)

[KBBOCA]

Normandy & Superfly, maybe you can start a thread in Talking Tropics to continue your argument? Somehow it seems out of place here at the moment when we've got a catastrophic landfalling hurricane in an impoverished country that didn't have a lot of time to prepare since most predicted a more northerly track.

Can it please!

[jrod]

This has been a terrible seasons. 2 cat 5's making landfall is a historic event. I cant imagine how bad it is for the people stuck in Felix's path.

[Normandy]

Normandy & Superfly, maybe you can start a thread in Talking Tropics to continue your argument? Somehow it seems out of place here at the moment when we've got a catastrophic landfalling hurricane in an impoverished country that didn't have a lot of time to prepare since most predicted a more northerly track.

Can it please!

I really don't understand what his deal is....thus I am not responding again....hes clearly just posting to argue.

I fully agree.

[hial2]

Well, time for bed. Second hurricane, second late night watching history occur.

Land is taking its toll on Felix now and it should fall apart pretty fast....nevertheless, DEVESTATING hit on Nicaragua.

Prolly the last time will see Felix.

Yep, 165-175 sustained plus 16 traveling speed..I'd say 200 mph sustained winds in the north quadrant is not out of the question..

No, no, no.
Not the case.
Felix prolly has AT MOST 175 mph sustained winds (and thats prolly high) in his northern quad...NHC has him at 160. No where near 200 sustained....but gusts are prolly pushing 210 or so. The advisory wind speed takes into accound forward motion....So ideally these would be the winds in Felix's N and S quad:

N QUAD: 160 mph (Operational intensity)
S QUAD: 120 mph


Thats not necesarilly the rule though....Hurricanes Celia and Katrina (FL Landfall) both had the most intense weather in their SW quads.

I did not know that the advisory wind speed took into account forward motion..thanks for the info..

[Coredesat]

I just find it interesting that the the most intense storm recorded in the ATL with the most intense deepeing rate recorded in the Atlantic produced less turbulence than Felix.

Fairly sure that was due to the fact that Wilma had essentially completed its RI phase by the time recon extrapolated the 884 hPa pressure (which was confirmed by sonde and reduced to 882 using the "1 hPa for every 10 kt" rule).

Very true....they did manage to catch Wilma at peak intensity....pretty lucky.
Were they not in the storm prior to their 884 measurement (Was that the first eye pass?)

Not sure, I wish there were a recon archive somewhere.

[Zardoz]

MSNBC story:

Felix, a monster Cat 5 storm, makes landfall

Hurricane Felix made landfall early Tuesday as a fearsome Category 5 storm _ the first time in recorded history that two top-scale storms have come ashore in the same season. The storm hit near the swampy Nicaragua-Honduras border, home to thousands of stranded Miskito Indians dependent on canoes to make their way to safety.

Twenty fishermen were missing, and communication to the area was cut off...

...Felix's top winds were just under 155 mph as it headed west; after landfall along the Miskito Coast, it is projected to rake northern Honduras, slam into southern Belize on Wednesday and then cut across northern Guatemala and southern Mexico, well south of Texas.

Its massive storm surge could devastate Indian communities along the Miskito Coast, an isolated region straddling the Honduras-Nicaragua border where Miskito Indians live in wooden shacks, get around on canoes and subsist on fish, beans, rice, cassava and plantains. Thousands were stranded along the coast late Monday.

The only path to safety is up rivers and across lakes that are too shallow for regular boats, but many lack gasoline for long journeys. Provincial health official Efrain Burgos estimated that 18,000 people must find their own way to higher ground.

All we can do is hope for the best for those people. So many of them are apparently going to be at the total mercy of this monstrous storm. A terrible tragedy may be unfolding.

[wxman57]

Yep, 165-175 sustained plus 16 traveling speed..I'd say 200 mph sustained winds in the north quadrant is not out of the question..

That's incorrect. You do not add forward speed onto the max sustained winds. Max sustained winds are just that, the max. Any storm motion is already taken into account.

[Fego]

Landfall, between Dakura and Augstara.

[storms in NC]

I will pray for those people.
May God be with each and everyone and give them safety today.

[KBBOCA]

Still intense reds in the AVN IR Sat pic. even after landfall. Wow.

[Sanibel]

I was telling people last night that this was intensifying.

Go Derek! I have new respect for you. This DID slow down.

This is yet another time I sign on with Felix and he makes my jaw drop!

Felix: Landfall at Category 5 - 160mph

I hope nobody was on Mosquito Key offshore from landfall where the eye passed directly over the low-lying key at category 5. Most likely people were there.

[KBBOCA]

4 Sep 2007 12:15 UTC [1 km resolution]