TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Vortex]

Latest 12Z GFS at 120 HR is just north of the islands and just NE of PR but as an open wave..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[CrazyC83]

Kinda look at the NHC as "The professor" and Accuweather as "The Fraternity House"

And what are we?

The nut house!

Even though our accuracy is often lower than theirs, we were the ones that got Humberto right...someone posted that they used this information and alerted people in the store they went to for supplies that a hurricane was coming and they didn't even think it was a storm...

[seaswing]

what are they doing giving a TEN DAY cone?

Maybe a bit of an attempt to out-do NHC?

[jhamps10]

Latest 12Z GFS at 120 HR is just north of the islands and just NE of PR but as an open wave..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

yeah BUUUTTTTTT GFS also had Dean, and felix as open waves when they were cat 5's.

so the position seems right, but who knows what it will be.

[mightyerick]

Last time I was wrong.
I know, I tell "90L is a dead system, and 91L gonna be Humberto".
90L surprised me, what can i say???

Now I dare to write "90% chances for 91L becoming Hurricane Ingrid".

Yes, I do. I know it is crazy, but I am thinking in a Cat 2 Ingrid over Georgia or Carolines. I think that Ingrid would survive to wind shear.

[CrazyC83]

Last time I was wrong.
I know, I tell "90L is a dead system, and 91L gonna be Humberto".
90L surprised me, what can i say???

Now I dare to write "90% chances for 91L becoming Hurricane Ingrid".

Yes, I do. I know it is crazy, but I am thinking in a Cat 2 Ingrid over Georgia or Carolines. I think that Ingrid would survive to wind shear.

Same here, although the ultimate intensity is hard to predict due to potential changes over the Gulf Stream. The area has intensified even strong storms and developed hurricanes out of nothing at all...

Anyway, I don't see it getting much above 40 kt through 72 hours unless the shear abates and the dry air weakens.

[x-y-no]

As of right now and overall forcasted conditions in td8's future i cant see this happening.

Well at least they slowed it down a little ... yesterday they had it past Puerto Rico on Saturday.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I beg to differ. IF the storm survives the shear to continue on to become a hurricane, the approaching/return of the ridge will block future Ingrid from being able to get to the Carolinas in my opinion. -Unless the guidance is all wrong about the returning ridge, which I don't believe it is.

[hurricanetrack]

That is absolutely a shock. Show me the meteorology that will allow that map to happen and I'll buy it. Otherwise, that is very bad in my opinion. The meterology I am looking at shows quite a different scenario panning out for TD8. They both can't be right....

but

time will tell...

[KWT]

I'd take a guess right now and say its very much 50-50 as to whether TD8 evensurvives the next 48hrs, at the moment its still trying to fire-up convection which should give it a little longer in thise high shear set-up but I'm not sure how long that LLC will hold together as that strong shear will probably be getting quite a way down the atmosphere as well.

[CourierPR]

This is really one tenacious system.

[ciclonson]

Well, the convection is still following our LLC from the SSE...

[mightyerick]

Anyway, I don't see it getting much above 40 kt through 72 hours unless the shear abates and the dry air weakens.

It must prevent any improvement of the organization of the system this weekend.

Epsilon was a weird exception... usually wind shear wins the assault.

[apocalypt-flyer]

I'm sorry but the Accuweather forecast is a bit ridiculous. Looks like an attempt to gain more subscribers/clicks/whatever. And a 7 days cone path? Give me a BREAK.

I'm not writing TD8 OFF, not by any means. It happened too often that a TD/TS travelled through hostile conditions only to bomb once it's dealt with them. Still, putting this at a Hurricane on Sunday, when there's a possibility for windshear to be 30/40 knots or higher over the whole weekend, is REALLY ODD. It might strengthen to a strong Tropical Storm until Saturday morning or maybe even reach Hurricane strength for a short time, based on how quickly systems intensified this year but I wonder how it's supposed to maintain/gain strength after that. Anyways it still needs to be watched.

*prepares to eat his own words early next week*

[miamicanes177]

Convection firing again...what happened to all the "it's dead, Jim" "Poof" "next" posts? HMMMMMMM.....

[CrazyC83]

Anyway, I don't see it getting much above 40 kt through 72 hours unless the shear abates and the dry air weakens.

It must prevent any improvement of the organization of the system this weekend.

Epsilon was a weird exception... usually wind shear wins the assault.

Epsilon was annular though and was able to fight off almost anything...

Why 40 kt? Sudden convection could fluctuate the intensity, just as a loss could bring it back to 20-25 kt.

[canegrl04]

Latest 12Z GFS at 120 HR is just north of the islands and just NE of PR but as an open wave..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

yeah BUUUTTTTTT GFS also had Dean, and felix as open waves when they were cat 5's.

so the position seems right, but who knows what it will be.

I learned along time ago never to trust in the models' forecast for intensity.The GFS was a glaring example why.If this thing survies,theres no telling how strong it could get

[CourierPR]

Convection firing again...what happened to all the "it's dead, Jim" "Poof" "next" posts? HMMMMMMM.....

They've moved to the "time will tell camp."

[canegrl04]

Convection firing again...what happened to all the "it's dead, Jim" "Poof" "next" posts? HMMMMMMM.....

I was one who had written future Ingrid off.I'm eating my bowl full of crow right now.Not bad with milk

[CrazyC83]

Latest 12Z GFS at 120 HR is just north of the islands and just NE of PR but as an open wave..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

yeah BUUUTTTTTT GFS also had Dean, and felix as open waves when they were cat 5's.

so the position seems right, but who knows what it will be.

I learned along time ago never to trust in the models' forecast for intensity.The GFS was a glaring example why.If this thing survies,theres no telling how strong it could get

One thing to admit this year: the models have been consistent. Consistently wrong. Even the NHC has admitted failure in some of them.