Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I just looked at a loop of this system...In it appears that a tropical storm is forming at near 29 north/84.5 west. The northern low is taking over big time, and banding is starting to form, with convection forming right over it. So maybe 12-18 hours before landfall. The southern one it appears is getting sucked into it.

[miamicanes177]

but I would not issue emergency for anything before hand; that is for when something really does happen. At least it should be.

You can't wait for something like this because if it gets serious people will not have time to get out. It is less than 2 days before landfall so you have to take extra precautions. Intensity forecasting has very little skill so officials are being careful and getting the word out.

[marcane_1973]

NEXT....That is all I have to say about this horrible looking invest. The Atlantic seems to have shut down for business this September.

[tolakram]

I just looked at a loop of this system...In it appears that a tropical storm is forming at near 29 north/84.5 west. The northern low is taking over big time, and banding is starting to form, with convection forming right over it. So maybe 12-18 hours before landfall. The southern one it appears is getting sucked into it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Shortwave shows that up pretty well. If nothing else it looks less insane.

[JabNOLA]

Matt... I do agree with you. Finally, everything is coming together in the very hot NE gulf. For New Orleans I can only pray and hope that this doesn't follow 29N degrees to 90W. Elena comes to mind because it has the same look. Pro's is there anything that can pull this inland sooner.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The high to the north is not that strong, this system is already moving northwest or north-northwest slowly. Maybe 4-5 mph least. The models show a trough coming out of the midwest breaking it down and forming a southly flow to force this system inland, if it is not already in the next 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Tornado warning for Lake County - devastated on February 2...

[Ed Mahmoud]

NEXT....That is all I have to say about this horrible looking invest. The Atlantic seems to have shut down for business this September.

Don't be so glum. The 0Z NAM takes something from the Caribbean into the Bay of Campeche in 84 hours, and at 42 hours the new GFS has almost closed an isobar around the disturbance, at that time crossing the Yucatan. So the SW Caribbean thread should get going.

Looking at the TLH radar, whether it is ever named a TD or sub-TD or storm, looks like the main show is starting to go much further North, and should probably be in near Pensacola in less than a day, ending the life of 93L. I suspect the Southern low just spins out and dies.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think they are checking out the northern low now. 32 knots so far at .8=near 29.44 mph at the surface.

[sevenleft]

I think they are checking out the northern low now. 32 knots so far at .8=near 29.44 mph at the surface.

What are you talking about?

[brunota2003]

I think they are checking out the northern low now. 32 knots so far at .8=near 29.44 mph at the surface.

Nope, the obs you posted are from a training flight I believe, hence the "WXWXA".

[Steve]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Looks like a really nasty band setting up across central Florida (+/- Ocala) with some watches or warnings popping up. Whatever we end up with, 93L will be remembered for pumping lots of rainfall into the SE US Atlantic Coast.

It doesn't appear that 93L will have enough time to resolve the multiple centers before landfall. But there still should be some tightening up tomorrow. Regardless of classification, expect TS conditions around from the Peninsula migrating across the NE and NC Gulf Coasts (including the possibility of some rotating cells within bands). I'm sure this is pretty obvious to anyone in the way.

Steve

[americanrebel]

I still believe there are 2 separate systems in the gulf. The one by the panhandle which is mostly the ULL, which is why the recon is getting higher wind speeds at flight level. And the one that is almost due south of Mobile right now, starting to get covection going, and getting a spin, and this will be the system that becomes a storm and make land fall West of New Orleans. The recon from that part of the system shows the pressure at 1005k, and winds right about 30-35 mph.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Looks like a really nasty band setting up across central Florida (+/- Ocala) with some watches or warnings popping up. Whatever we end up with, 93L will be remembered for pumping lots of rainfall into the SE US Atlantic Coast.

It doesn't appear that 93L will have enough time to resolve the multiple centers before landfall. But there still should be some tightening up tomorrow. Regardless of classification, expect TS conditions around from the Peninsula migrating across the NE and NC Gulf Coasts (including the possibility of some rotating cells within bands). I'm sure this is pretty obvious to anyone in the way.

Steve

You heading to the other thread? GFS has Caribbean system into Lousiana in 3 days.

[Sanibel]

Almost like the original Low from Canaveral took root.

[BigA]

It's wondrous hard to tell where a developing tropical center is, if anywhere, but my eyes seem to indicate that it is about 28, maybe 28.3 North, 85.5 West. NRL imagery shows continue convection building on the north side of the center; the long range radar out of Tallhassee could show turning, but I'm not totally convinced one way or the other.

[Steve]

>>You heading to the other thread? GFS has Caribbean system into Lousiana in 3 days.

I've been watching that a few runs. I don't know, maybe if 93L would move north, I could buy a Louisiana solution for a second low. But you gotta think that it would be more of a western gulf threat depending on what 93L does. If it skirts the coast, the surface high builds in from the E and NE. And you would think that wherever its western periphery is would potentially take that hit.

Speaking of 93L, despite people giving up, it's got lots of associated tropical weather. Tomorrow is pretty much the day we've been waiting for since Tuesday, and we will see if it tightens up closer to landfall.

Steve

[Acral]

True, Friday has been the day all week.

Now we are NOT going to see a RI cycle or my name is piznat. But prolly will see a TS out of this mess.

[HeeBGBz]

According to this, MS coastal evacuation order could come as early as noon Friday. I think it would be mostly people in trailers and low areas though.

http://www.wlox.com/global/story.asp?s=7104309

In Hancock county there are 4000 people in FEMA trailers and only one shelter.

[BigA]

. But prolly will see a TS out of this mess.

I agree. On NRL Satellite, bandinglike convection is increasing. 34 mph sustained south of Panhandle on surface obs...possibly apparent circulation on weather.com loop. Looks like we may have a storm tomorrow.

If it becomes Jerry, it may well be another less than 1 ACE system.