Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[NcentralFlaguy]

The NHC does adjust the track during intermediate advisories.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

uugghhh! I knew it ej I withdraw my apology..lol

[Ed Mahmoud]

Maybe this was already answered on page 52 or something, but lack of recon due to proximity to Cuba?

[CourierPR]

Folks,

This time of year modeling of tropical systems can be challenging. Just look at the difference in NHC variance from 24 hours ago. The 00z runs should be interesting..

Vortex, you are correct. I will continue to monitor satellite imagery to see if the projections verify... or not.

[RL3AO]

230utc indicates a burst right over the center...Becoming better organized on satellite and radar. I will not be surprised if we have a minimal hurricane tomorrow morning

I don't know about tomorrow morning, but I think by afternoon we could very easily be looking at a hurricane. But if we do get a large burst of convection soon, I wonder how long the Bahamas will wait to issue a hurricane watch or warning?

[hiflyer]

Interesting that Cuba has issued Trop Storm warnings farther west that originally...also seems the system is slowing as closest approach to SoFla during the day was around 2pm Weds and now backed out to 8pm. Models sure are tightly wrapped together which means they are all gonna look great or all bomb...grin. I agree that SoFla may get some 'stuff' as far as wind, surf, and such....maybe some spot power deals....and lots of 'specials updates' on the local tv. Discussion still not up as of 2255edt....may be writing "war and peace".

[Chris_in_Tampa]

No obs from mission 5 have come across yet.

No one ever did post obs from mission 4, the NOAA high altitude mission, so here are a few dropsonde messages that had some of the highest winds:

UZNT13 KWBC 292120
XXAA 79212 99211 70681 07918 99012 28432 ///// 00110 27428 13026
92797 22020 13530 85527 17234 14531 70158 07803 17521 50587 06710
13023 40758 15719 17516 30969 30331 20023 25096 40140 22540 20244
537// 23544 88999 77999
31313 09608 82101
51515 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 12
62626 SPL 2119N06809W 2115 LST WND 014 MBL WND 13027 AEV 20704 DL
M WND 18021 011169 WL150 13026 088 =
XXBB 79218 99211 70681 07918 00012 28432 11850 17234 22703 08003
33536 02706 44478 09113 55410 14321 66341 23526 77287 32532 88252
39539 99210 50760 11162 645//
21212 00012 ///// 11011 13024 22985 13028 33850 14531 44729 15522
55710 17523 66679 17519 77457 11528 88406 17514 99309 19517 11265
21546 22175 24038 33162 23051
31313 09608 82101
51515 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 12
62626 SPL 2119N06809W 2115 LST WND 014 MBL WND 13027 AEV 20704 DL
M WND 18021 011169 WL150 13026 088 =

UZNT13 KWBC 292207
XXAA 79222 99216 70708 08010 99010 27423 13034 00084 26417 12540
92769 21400 13040 85501 17800 14046 70140 08405 17521 50585 05519
17013 40757 15118 18021 30969 29930 18528 25096 40713 18029 20244
531// 19036 88999 77999
31313 09608 82146
51515 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 16
62626 SPL 2171N07084W 2200 MBL WND 13040 AEV 20704 DLM WND 16525
009161 WL150 12539 079 =
XXBB 79228 99216 70708 08010 00010 27423 11967 23200 22850 17800
33804 16038 44695 08000 55639 04218 66561 00903 77504 05310 88491
06539 99477 07707 11413 13318 22299 30130 33251 40512 44203 52359
55154 657//
21212 00010 13034 11993 13043 22918 13537 33872 14044 44858 14041
55850 14046 66822 13044 77759 14532 88678 18023 99650 16516 11638
17514 22623 19518 33583 19521 44546 15512 55501 17013 66481 20012
77461 19012 88455 17514 99433 19019 11379 17518 22350 19022 33281
18022 44199 19036 55161 21030 66154 19026
31313 09608 82146
51515 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 16
62626 SPL 2171N07084W 2200 MBL WND 13040 AEV 20704 DLM WND 16525
009161 WL150 12539 079 =

UZNT13 KWBC 292218
XXAA 79222 99204 70705 08000 99009 27234 14533 00080 26431 14537
92764 20410 15045 85495 19457 15538 70137 08607 19532 50585 05907
20020 40757 15116 19520 30969 29928 17522 25096 40333 18528 20244
537// 19026 88999 77999
31313 09608 82158
51515 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 17
62626 SPL 2046N07048W 2212 MBL WND 14539 AEV 20704 DLM WND 17527
009162 WL150 14536 075 =
XXBB 79228 99204 70705 08000 00009 27234 11914 19812 22893 20449
33850 19457 44780 13613 55760 13833 66693 08205 77670 07621 88587
00600 99421 12714 11340 23123 22288 32129 33251 40133 44202 53359
55154 657//
21212 00009 14533 11983 14542 22971 15044 33960 15041 44930 15048
55920 15046 66909 15550 77898 15548 88892 15554 99850 15538 11714
19021 22680 19531 33673 17530 44667 19531 55655 19532 66639 19517
77605 19516 88581 17011 99471 20518 11440 18019 22392 20020 33314
17018 44291 18030 55287 17520 66284 18517 77185 18533 88162 21528
99154 19521
31313 09608 82158
51515 10190 15423
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 17
62626 SPL 2046N07048W 2212 MBL WND 14539 AEV 20704 DLM WND 17527
009162 WL150 14536 075 =

UZNT13 KWBC 292324
XXAA 79231 99175 70717 04471 99008 25014 14037 00075 24412 14038
92757 21620 17027 85488 17412 19027 70127 09430 19030 50585 05108
21020 40757 14916 20513 30969 29527 21012 25096 39934 20512 20244
53360 18507 15423 677// 20014 88999 77999
31313 09608 82303
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 22
62626 SPL 1760N07171W 2318 MBL WND 14535 AEV 20704 DLM WND 19019
008154 WL150 14037 075 =
XXBB 79238 99175 70717 04471 00008 25014 11850 17412 22698 09232
33676 07400 44653 06415 55552 02304 66541 01902 77491 05708 88421
12515 99379 17318 11303 28927 22257 38332 33226 45948 44195 54562
55147 683//
21212 00008 14037 11984 14038 22937 16026 33906 18025 44850 19027
55716 19531 66673 18527 77593 20023 88570 21521 99540 20521 11518
22016 22493 20518 33480 22519 44379 20015 55356 22513 66328 21513
77318 22512 88305 21011 99286 21511 11258 19513 22236 21012 33213
17510 44198 18006 55187 22010 66179 20010 77164 20514 88154 11009
99147 21525
31313 09608 82303
61616 NOAA9 0416A NOEL OB 22
62626 SPL 1760N07171W 2318 MBL WND 14535 AEV 20704 DLM WND 19019
008154 WL150 14037 075 =

[destruction92]

Are any new model runs coming out? This is the models thread...would be nice if someone posted a link or two to the new GFS, UKMET, Euro, etc. Thanks.

[Evil Jeremy]

THe next set of model runs dont begin for about another hour and a half.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300306
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 01 20071030
025400 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0121 +270 +245 360000 000 999 999 23
025430 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0121 +270 +243 360000 000 999 999 23
025500 1742N 06448W 0134 00000 0124 +270 +242 360000 000 999 999 23
025530 1742N 06448W 0132 00003 0138 +270 +241 360000 000 999 999 03
025600 1742N 06448W 0130 00003 0136 +270 +241 360000 000 999 999 03
025630 1742N 06448W 0128 00005 0136 +269 +241 360000 000 999 999 03
025700 1742N 06448W 0126 00010 0139 +265 +241 360000 000 999 999 03
025730 1742N 06448W 0123 00014 0141 +265 +241 360000 000 999 999 03
025800 1742N 06449W 0120 00016 0142 +265 +241 360000 000 999 999 03
025830 1742N 06449W 0119 00019 0142 +265 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
025900 1742N 06449W 0117 00020 0142 +265 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
025930 1742N 06449W 0116 00022 0143 +265 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
030000 1742N 06449W 0116 00022 0141 +268 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
030030 1742N 06449W 0116 00021 0141 +265 +240 360000 000 999 999 03
030100 1742N 06449W 0116 00020 0141 +265 +239 360000 000 999 999 03
030130 1742N 06449W 0115 00020 0141 +265 +246 098005 009 999 999 03
030200 1742N 06448W 0004 00102 0116 +261 +242 102016 017 999 999 03
030230 1743N 06447W 9741 00337 0122 +243 +231 106021 022 999 999 03
030300 1744N 06446W 9404 00647 0132 +222 +205 112026 028 999 999 03
030330 1746N 06446W 8976 01060 0136 +200 +180 116025 027 999 999 03
$$
;

Flight is in the air.

[destruction92]

Note a couple of things on the 03Z track - it's almost exactly the same as the OFCI track I posted earlier (no big surprise with that much model consensus). Note also that there are no TS-force winds in SW or NW of the center as it approaches Florida. This would be due to increasing SW wind shear and dry air intrusion. Finally (ok, 3 things), note the weakening as it approaches Florida (dry air/wind shear).

So the NHC is forecasting all TS-force winds to be east of the center across the Bahamas - at least all the 39+ mph winds directly associated with the circulation around Noel's center. Like I've said for days, with such a strong pressure gradient behind that front due to the large high pressure to the north, the entire FL east coast will likely see 35-45 mph sustained wind regardless of Noel's presence over the next 3-4 days. Winds might actually increase as Noel moves off to the NE and transitions to extratropical, as that'll help to pump more cool, dry air southward off the SE U.S. Coast and down toward Florida.

Once again, more evidence from Wxman57 that Florida is in the clear. Praise the lord!

I won't be able to 100% guarantee you're "in the clear' for another 48-72 hrs. Until then, prepare for minimal TS force winds lasting for 2-3 days, whatever that entails (as far as preparations). Wax your surf board?

Along with that strong onshore flow will come tides 2-3 feet above normal and lots of beach erosion. So even though you may not get a true TS there (more of a hybrid storm), it could still cause some damage, maybe even knock power out for a short time in spots. But then, I don't think you have any weak trees to fall on power lines over there any more after the 2004/2005 seasons.

From the pictures I saw, there were by no means "weak" trees that fell on power lines during the 2004/2005 seasons in South Florida...60 foot Banyan trees, 70 foot Coconut Trees, Melaleuca trees, towering oak trees, and 100 foot Australian pine trees. Like Derek Ortt said, Miami has rightfully earned its name to have its university's name/logo to be the "hurricanes". From the people I have talked to that live down there and have damaged properties and Wilma being the 3rd most costly hurricane, I have learned to not downplay the 2004/2005 hurricane seasons of South Florida.

[destruction92]

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

That's an interesting change from the previous WNW motion. It looks like my NW movement on radar was correct. Additionally, the new positions match wxman57's 0Z path (center of cone). It has been shifted further east.

Well, the 5PM and 8PM advisories also said that Noel was moving NW also....so no change in direction of movement yet.

If Noel moved WNW, it would eventually make landfall in Cuba and die in the rugged terrain.

[Rainband]

Oh my god! wxman is a great met, but he isnt god! You have to consider that anything can still happen, especially in a season where the rules don't matter!

Actually, didn't someone here claim I was God during Felix or some other storm?

Ok, enough of this. I have to be at work by 6am.

Nite!

Actually from what i have seen Everyone has been uncertain about this storm. The tracks and forecasts I have seen have been adjusted as the NHC adjusts them. This is weather and it's unpredictable and No one has been right thus far

[NcentralFlaguy]

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL.......


Well this settles an argument from 1 1/2 hours ago...its the 2nd trough.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300316
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 02 20071030
030400 1747N 06447W 8647 01395 0151 +181 +157 121025 025 043 000 03
030430 1747N 06449W 8439 01599 0145 +169 +140 121024 025 040 000 03
030500 1747N 06451W 8095 01955 0144 +152 +114 117024 024 999 999 03
030530 1747N 06453W 7804 02269 0144 +139 +068 117024 025 999 999 03
030600 1747N 06455W 7572 02515 0137 +126 +040 118022 024 999 999 03
030630 1747N 06456W 7351 02764 0135 +109 +045 109019 020 026 000 03
030700 1748N 06458W 7146 02980 0114 +096 +036 111019 019 012 002 03
030730 1748N 06500W 6948 03228 0127 +082 +030 118018 019 016 002 03
030800 1749N 06502W 6750 03465 0122 +070 +021 113016 017 009 003 03
030830 1749N 06504W 6570 03690 0125 +055 +016 119014 016 020 001 03
030900 1750N 06506W 6388 03920 0121 +045 +000 135011 011 019 002 03
030930 1751N 06508W 6250 04093 0119 +034 -005 127010 011 021 001 03
031000 1751N 06510W 6100 04294 0112 +027 -040 144009 010 019 002 00
031030 1752N 06512W 5957 04456 0098 +014 -036 155009 010 022 000 00
031100 1753N 06514W 5835 04648 0108 +004 -047 160011 012 018 002 00
031130 1753N 06516W 5712 04820 0098 -003 -031 172011 011 028 000 00
031200 1754N 06518W 5603 04966 0091 -011 -042 163009 010 020 001 00
031230 1755N 06520W 5499 05123 0260 -020 -059 153009 009 027 000 00
031300 1756N 06522W 5407 05260 0270 -028 -075 149009 009 020 002 00
031330 1756N 06524W 5294 05426 0279 -039 -076 163009 009 035 000 00
$$
;

[destruction92]

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL.......


Well this settles an argument from 1 1/2 hours ago...its the 2nd trough.

Is it the trough originating from the Pacific Northwest???
Which trough is it on the surface analysis page from the Weather Channel? http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

Of course the trough is going to be coming from the northwest direction when approaching Florida. That is a known.

[AJC3]

Once again, more evidence from Wxman57 that Florida is in the clear. Praise the lord!

[semi-rant]

Exactly what is your definition of "in the clear"? Because of the gradient winds well northwest of Noel, northeast and east central Florida, including the adjacent Atlantic are, and have been under one or more the following advisories:

Coastal Flood Watch
High Surf Advisory
Wind and Lake Wind Advisories
Gale Warning (for the Atlantic)
Flood Watches

Irrespective of Noel's track and intensity, the simple fact that there was just a broad area of low pressure over the Caribbean was enough to make this a significantly impacting event for the Florida east coast. 10 or 20 knots of additional wind speed in the inner core of Noel is not going to make a whole lot of difference, considering what's already been going on here. Winds are already running at or close to 30 knots offshore, and seas are 10 to 15 feet within 20 miles of the coast. I can only imagine what the breakers are doing, and how the walkovers, dune line, etc. look around and after the high tides.

By the end of the week, when residents, beach patrol, EM folks, etc - and anyone else along the east coast of Florida go down to the beach to see what 3 days worth of gale/near gale conditions have wrought, I assure you that "in the clear" will be pretty far from their minds.

[/semi-rant]

[Vortex]

Because recon can't fly in cuban air space are they going in at 2?

[RL3AO]

Is it the trough originating from the Pacific Northwest???
Which trough is it on the surface analysis page from the Weather Channel? http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

Of course the trough is going to be coming from the northwest direction when approaching Florida. That is a known.

I think it is a developing area in Southern Manitoba, but I could be wrong.

[NcentralFlaguy]

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL.......


Well this settles an argument from 1 1/2 hours ago...its the 2nd trough.

Is it the trough originating from the Pacific Northwest???
Which trough is it on the surface analysis page from the Weather Channel? http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

Of course the trough is going to be coming from the northwest direction when approaching Florida. That is a known.

I still think its energy pushing to the se from the great lakes, but there is no such shortwave on that map..just look at the wv loop you will see it diving down ...rather quickly i might add.

[cycloneye]

You have to refresh it to get the latest radar image.It updates every 15 minutes.