TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[KWT]

Also with Epsilon it was a shallow system and at the time of year it formed the jet stream runs a little high in altitude and probably missed the shallow system as it ran above IMO.

Convection is firing still quite nicely on the southern/SE side of the LLC but you can't fail to notice its still getting beaten the hell out of by the shear.
note by the way the reason why GFS fails so often is probably because its not al lthat good at forecasting shear, Derek showed a good number of times when thats the case and I can think of more then what he's mentioned as well.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I finally learned something important about the GFS...thanks to all our ProMets here...that must be remembered. The GFS is to be looked at only for synoptic set up around the storm, but never for storm intensity.

As we saw with our Cat 5's, amongst many other systems, the GFS is usually initialized with weak storms throughout its career of predicting the movement of that storm. What the GFS is really good at showing is not the strength of a system, but of the highs, lows, ridges and fronts AROUND the system and how the system moves as it reacts to those.

The GFS data is absorbed into other models to get a good handle on the surrounding synoptics, and then those other models are better at establishing storm strength.

-at least that was how I finally learned how to appreciate the model. It has its purpose, and is pretty good at doing what it does.

[mightyerick]

i dont wonder if TD8 becomes TS Ingrid today... but it must remains for a couple of days as a minimal TS due wind shear.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Convection is starting to build in a band leading into the center on the south side.

[gatorcane]

One thing to watch for. As some have mentioned the fact that the system is not organizing into a hurricane now is not necessarily good down the road, especially for the CONUS (e.g. Florida).

Many times we have seen sheared systems just hang on long enough until conditions became right and then exploded. They may be sheared but the overall structure is in tact.

With that said hear me out. A weak sheared system will probably go WNW and stay with the easterly low-level flow. A deep system now would almost certainly be going off to the NW and maybe into fishland.

If this system can hang on and end up going through the Herbert box. It does look like a big ridge is going to develop off the EC of the US after this front passes...and that will open up the door for Ingrid to finally rise and head towards the CONUS.

Still, that is about a 10% chance of happening but still not out of the realm of possibility.

We'll know by the end of this weekend.

[gerrit]

Click pic for a larger version.

[hurricanetrack]

No one has said it's dead, just on $100,000 a day life support. And even worse for its prognosis: MORE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD for the next 10 days or more.

The westerlies are dipping down in to the fringes of the tropics- what the heck is that? Oh- as Frank2 said earlier somewhere else in a post long ago, signs of an early fall. Sure looks like that on the ole GFS 200mb maps from day 5 until day 10-16.

[windstorm99]

Exposed LLC.....

[skysummit]

No one has said it's dead, just on $100,000 a day life support. And even worse for its prognosis: MORE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD for the next 10 days or more.

The westerlies are dipping down in to the fringes of the tropics- what the heck is that? Oh- as Frank2 said earlier somewhere else in a post long ago, signs of an early fall. Sure looks like that on the ole GFS 200mb maps from day 5 until day 10-16.

What??? There's been countless posts saying "poof" or "stick a fork in it". You've said it yourself...."the writing's on the wall".

Yea, it's a naked swirl right now, but it's surely a vigorous one.

[KWT]

Yeah hurricanetrack, the shear does look like its staying strong, though note that there may be periods of 6-12hrs where the shear does ease off which would allow the convection to re-build again before being blown off. If this does occur it should be able to keep itself sustained for a fair time. Its when that convection stops forming that the system is in real trouble, its not quite on life-support yet...

It'll be interesting to see whether shear is quite as high further west as the models forecasted, I can't help but not really trust the models shear forecasts as they have managed to miss really strong shear levels at close range.

[mightyerick]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 131433
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

A 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT.

it was Ingrid!!!!!!!!!

[JonathanBelles]

I still think a hurricane may be possible, but over time. I think it will take a while to develop.

[KWT]

mightyerick, IF this system dies off then that data that is in that quote will probably be enough to riase this to a tropical storm, indeed even if it does develop the NHC may up this to a TS for 6hrs before weakening it back to a TD post season.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Let's say this does open back up when faced with a few days of shear. Does it look lik eit would have a chance to regenerate at all down the road? With waters as warm as they are, maybe a storm could really whip up quick from just a wave. At what point does it look like the environment will be favorable again? (looking for a longitude watch point)

[windstorm99]

Along with strong upper level winds impacting the system here is one the reasons why this is being choked...

[KWT]

Yep some dry air out there tohugh the main issue really does seem to be the very strong shearing right now. The convection is firing but its being constantly displaced t othe south of the center and so I don't think the atmosphere is too stable to allow convection to occur.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Blown Away]

Click pic for a larger version.

Does Accuweather's JB think TD8 will be a Cat 1 hurricane by 5pm tomorrow? That map is only 3 hours old.

[curtadams]

Shear isn't high, only about 10-15 knots. You can see the outflow from the thunderstorms in the north band go over the LLC, and they're moving rather slowly. The main problem is probably dry air - it perked up noticeably when said outflow (which will be moist) started passing over the center.

In spite of the life support posts, it's strengthening noticeably. You can seen the boundary layer getting whipped up around the LLC, d-min notwithstanding.

One thing this tells you is how off the shear maps can be, even for current conditions. The shear maps say this is under light westerly shear but it's very obviously under moderate northwesterly shear.

[CrazyC83]

This is diurnal minimum right now, correct?