Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Vortex]

AJC,

Well said. I think the Florida East coast will remember this as the Halloween storm for years to come better known as the "GRADIENT" storm or "NOEL" leaves its mark. Major beach erosion and coastal flooding likely..

Also, scattered power outages likely up and down the east coast with ocassional squalls increasing Tuesday night...

[Blown Away]

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL.......
Well this settles an argument from 1 1/2 hours ago...its the 2nd trough.

Forward speed is the key, at 75W Noel is about 360 miles from WPB, Noel could easily be near the coast in less than 48 hours. Even at 10mph Noel will be at the coast in about 36 hours. Noel is going to have to slow to a crawl to meet the 48 hour window.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300326
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 03 20071030
031400 1757N 06526W 5197 05569 0286 -049 -079 146009 010 024 002 03
031430 1758N 06528W 5056 05780 0291 -058 -094 164011 011 029 002 03
031500 1758N 06529W 4939 05966 0301 -064 -117 176012 013 024 001 00
031530 1759N 06531W 4845 06124 0321 -073 -095 167010 011 037 000 01
031600 1800N 06533W 4752 06275 0332 -083 +999 160009 010 022 001 01
031630 1800N 06535W 4669 06418 0343 -089 +999 156010 011 035 000 01
031700 1801N 06537W 4580 06569 0355 -092 +999 171011 012 025 000 01
031730 1802N 06539W 4485 06726 0362 -100 -100 187012 012 042 000 01
031800 1802N 06541W 4416 06845 0368 -108 -171 184012 012 024 000 00
031830 1803N 06543W 4361 06946 0378 -116 -175 177013 013 040 000 00
031900 1804N 06546W 4305 07059 0393 -125 -182 171014 014 055 000 00
031930 1805N 06548W 4245 07155 0393 -132 -188 169015 015 120 000 03
032000 1805N 06550W 4184 07263 0400 -140 -193 169015 015 999 999 03
032030 1806N 06552W 4130 07360 0404 -149 -194 165016 016 999 999 03
032100 1807N 06554W 4079 07455 0405 -155 -202 156015 015 999 999 03
032130 1808N 06556W 4032 07530 0406 -155 -221 148016 018 999 999 03
032200 1808N 06558W 3989 07610 0408 -160 -238 145017 018 999 999 03
032230 1809N 06601W 3942 07679 0399 -168 -246 143018 018 999 999 03
032300 1810N 06603W 3924 07711 0393 -170 -256 140018 018 999 999 03
032330 1811N 06605W 3925 07724 0408 -170 -259 142019 020 999 999 03
$$
;

[Bgator]

Looks like the storm is hugging the Cuban coast with radar, but hard to tell...

[Vortex]

BGator,


noticed the same. Satellite presentation is improving. Radar will likely follow suite as long as it doesnt move inland.

[Bgator]

Yeah radar presentation is still pretty poor, so its hard to tell exactly where centre is.

[CourierPR]

I just saw a post on another sight that said the GFDL has Noel at category 3 and 960 mb on Wednesday.

[umguy1]

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL.......
Well this settles an argument from 1 1/2 hours ago...its the 2nd trough.

Forward speed is the key, at 75W Noel is about 360 miles from WPB, Noel could easily be near the coast in less than 48 hours. Even at 10mph Noel will be at the coast in about 36 hours. Noel is going to have to slow to a crawl to meet the 48 hour window.

I was thinking the same thing. The math doesn't add up.

[RL3AO]

I just saw a post on another sight that said the GFDL has Noel at category 3 and 960 mb on Wednesday.

The 18z run got it to a strong cat 2/960mb.

[Vortex]

If you run a loop of the past 8 hours..What a difference in organization.

[Vortex]

00Z GFS rolling in...

BTW EXCELLENT initialization..

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300336
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 04 20071030
032400 1812N 06608W 3925 07692 0390 -174 -249 142018 019 999 999 03
032430 1812N 06610W 3924 07714 0413 -175 -243 144018 019 999 999 03
032500 1813N 06613W 3926 07766 0456 -171 -254 149019 020 999 999 03
032530 1814N 06615W 3928 07756 0447 -167 -263 153019 019 999 999 03
032600 1815N 06618W 3924 07797 0454 -169 -263 151019 019 999 999 03
032630 1816N 06620W 3926 07791 0440 -170 -260 148019 019 999 999 03
032700 1817N 06623W 3924 07749 0430 -170 -258 148018 019 999 999 03
032730 1818N 06626W 3922 07752 0431 -173 -246 145015 017 999 999 03
032800 1819N 06628W 3925 07745 0430 -176 -222 144015 015 999 999 03
032830 1820N 06631W 3925 07745 0428 -177 -219 145016 017 999 999 03
032900 1821N 06633W 3923 07747 0427 -175 -221 147017 017 999 999 03
032930 1821N 06636W 3923 07747 0427 -176 -219 151017 018 999 999 03
033000 1822N 06638W 3923 07746 0427 -175 -216 150018 019 999 999 03
033030 1823N 06641W 3923 07746 0427 -175 -219 149018 019 999 999 03
033100 1824N 06644W 3926 07743 0427 -175 -216 149019 019 999 999 03
033130 1825N 06646W 3924 07744 0427 -173 -215 145018 018 999 999 03
033200 1826N 06649W 3923 07744 0425 -175 -211 145019 019 999 999 03
033230 1827N 06652W 3924 07741 0423 -175 -209 146019 019 999 999 03
033300 1828N 06654W 3924 07739 0421 -175 -207 152019 019 999 999 23
033330 1829N 06657W 3924 07739 0999 -175 -211 157019 020 999 999 23
$$
;

[Blown Away]

IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL
NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL.......
Well this settles an argument from 1 1/2 hours ago...its the 2nd trough.

Forward speed is the key, at 75W Noel is about 360 miles from WPB, Noel could easily be near the coast in less than 48 hours. Even at 10mph Noel will be at the coast in about 36 hours. Noel is going to have to slow to a crawl to meet the 48 hour window.

I was thinking the same thing. The math doesn't add up.

Noel is 1.3 degrees (@78 miles) farther W than predicted at 11am.

[CourierPR]

I just saw a post on another sight that said the GFDL has Noel at category 3 and 960 mb on Wednesday.

The 18z run got it to a strong cat 2/960mb.

Thank you for that info. These fall storms sure provide drama.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

Inland over cuba...Humm

[Vortex]

First 12 hours of RUN and GFS has it due west into Cuba..That ridge to the north is very strong...

[destruction92]

First 12 hours of RUN and GFS has it due west into Cuba..That ridge to the north is very strong...

Well, I wouldn't be surprised. This has been the year of the RIDGE....Westward has been the direction of choice...for past systems this year, a lot of the global consensus models overestimated the strength of approaching troughs. Mexico and Central America have had their fare share. Cuba's turn now?

[Vortex]

H+24 GFS

Back over water..S of Adros. That ridge means business!!


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300346
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 05 20071030
033400 1829N 06659W 3924 07733 0417 -173 -212 159019 020 087 000 03
033430 1830N 06702W 3926 07735 0419 -170 -211 163020 020 155 000 00
033500 1831N 06704W 3926 07738 0420 -170 -216 163021 021 128 000 00
033530 1832N 06707W 3926 07716 0402 -167 -218 163021 022 072 000 00
033600 1833N 06710W 3926 07728 0414 -169 -219 161022 023 026 000 00
033630 1834N 06712W 3926 07773 0458 -165 -226 159023 024 019 001 00
033700 1835N 06715W 3926 07751 0442 -166 -228 160025 025 014 002 00
033730 1836N 06717W 3926 07743 0428 -165 -225 159026 026 010 002 00
033800 1837N 06720W 3926 07738 0423 -166 -220 158026 026 010 002 00
033830 1837N 06723W 3926 07738 0419 -167 -217 158025 025 011 003 00
033900 1838N 06725W 3926 07728 0415 -170 -210 160023 024 014 002 00
033930 1839N 06728W 3926 07732 0416 -170 -183 162023 023 012 003 00
034000 1840N 06730W 3926 07731 0416 -170 -193 161023 024 013 003 00
034030 1841N 06733W 3926 07733 0419 -170 -197 160023 023 012 003 00
034100 1842N 06736W 3926 07733 0418 -168 -193 163021 021 012 002 00
034130 1843N 06738W 3926 07730 0415 -170 -196 159020 020 009 003 00
034200 1844N 06741W 3926 07727 0413 -166 -196 157018 018 015 002 00
034230 1844N 06743W 3926 07730 0414 -165 -193 156015 016 009 003 00
034300 1845N 06746W 3926 07730 0414 -165 -191 155014 015 006 003 00
034330 1846N 06749W 3926 07727 0412 -165 -194 147014 014 008 003 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

I'm calling it now. The GFS takes it into the GOM.

EDIT: Nevermind, it brings it north at 42 hours