TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[dswink]

S

per the discussion:

"AFTERWARD THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH"

reminds me of TD10/11 in 2005

[chrisnnavarre]

I have to say this system is fighting hard to hold on.

In fact it would appear it is blowing up some good convection despite the DMIN.

Maybe still something to keep an eye on and not stick a fork in yet...

So you go from "stick a fork in it" and "poof" to what you just said? This is why people should stop calling for poofage and tankage while there is still a LLC. You can declare it dead if it loses the LLC, but not before. I thought Dean, Felix, Humberto, Gabrielle taught people a lesson but I guess not. Maybe Ingrid will teach them.

and on the other side of the spectrum, you have those thing that every wave, invest, depression will be a Felix or Dean, no ifs ands or buts....

Me, I"m kinda in the middle......

I heard on the radio today that Humberto broke some sort of record as being the only Hurricane in history to intensify so quickly as it made landfall. Me personally, I thought that record belonged to Charlie. Especially since there were many surprised people that were blown through mobile home walls down there in Punta Gorda, FL. I guess after the number of records past seasons and this season is setting including back to back CAT 5's it's a little easy for everyone to expect the worst from each invest.

[skysummit]

Chris...he broke the record in terms of strengthening to a hurricane. It only took 18 hours to go from an Invest to an 85mph hurricane.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

Clip...
MON-THU...THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE RIDING BEHIND THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SO FAR TO THE N...ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS WILL BE FORCED UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE S WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THE RESULT WILL BE A DOMINANT ERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ERLIES COULD PUSH A T-WAVE ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.

I wonder if the T-Wave is TD8? Sounds like the ridge merges? Maybe somebody can explain this better.

[DESTRUCTION5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
254 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007

Clip...
MON-THU...THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE RIDING BEHIND THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SO FAR TO THE N...ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS WILL BE FORCED UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE S WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THE RESULT WILL BE A DOMINANT ERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THESE ERLIES COULD PUSH A T-WAVE ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.

I wonder if the T-Wave is TD8? Sounds like the ridge merges? Maybe somebody can explain this better.

There is your Tropical Wave North of TD 8...JB shows interest in this when it reaches the Fl Straights..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[skysummit]

There is your Tropical Wave North of TD 8...JB shows interest in this when it reaches the Fl Straights..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Anyway you could elaborate a little on that comment without going over boundaries?

[KWT]

Sat.loops are showing that convection is still blowing up on the southern side, esp the SE side however it still looks like its being fairly badly sheared as of this moment.

[DESTRUCTION5]

There is your Tropical Wave North of TD 8...JB shows interest in this when it reaches the Fl Straights..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

Anyway you could elaborate a little on that comment without going over boundaries?

Yesterday he mentioned it..longshot in the stable...No direction just Fl straights for now..Im begining to think JB likes the horse races..LOL

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can't believe that recon is going out to check pathetic TD 8. It is clearly disorganized and poses no threat to land for a couple of days. With the shear out ahead of it TD 8 will be lucky to become a modest TS. One it gets north of the islands condition could improve a bit provided it survives till then......MGC

Mr. Ortt previously mentioned that NOAA is flying out to this to test, IIRC, the ability to gather data with doppler radar and then use that to initialize the HWRF model.

[miamicanes177]

new burst of very deep convection firing near the center. If current trends continue, TS formation will be imminent.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Personally I believe TD8 is getting reorganized again as deep convection is getting closer and closer to covering the exposed center and the rotation is tighter and faster then yesterday.

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Personally I believe TD8 is getting reorganized again as deep convection is getting closer and closer to covering the exposed center and the rotation is tighter and faster then yesterday.

it's looking like it is to me too. Maybe this time we'll get Ingrid.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

Personally I believe TD8 is getting reorganized again as deep convection is getting closer and closer to covering the exposed center and the rotation is tighter and faster then yesterday.

I do agree..I think there is a pretty good shot the will find Ingrid tonight albeit a week Ingrid..

[KWT]

Does seem like the shear is easing off just a touch and the convection is starting to get pulled slowly back towards the LLC. Hard to say whether this is just a breif weakening of the shear whichcan happen at times or whether its something a little longer then that.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the more destructive mid level shear may be lessening, while the high level shear is increasing

[KWT]

Yeah Derek i think the mid-level shear is easing a little as well. Just a quick question, could increasing high leel shear help the outflow of this system or would it be a hinderence still as the convective tops would get sheared away?

[Derek Ortt]

the high level shear definately won't be favorable; however, we should not see the same level of decoupling that we saw last night

[curtadams]

curtadams, how can it be strengthening when the convection is being shunted to the south constantly, its pretty much close to being a naked swirl right now and the sheared convection to the south is the only area of noteable convection within the entire system. Indeed that convection is probably just about strong enough to keep the system at 30kts. At least the LLc is getting any weaker and its probably holding steady i'd guess right now.

To be perfectly honest, I don't understand the mechanism of these sheared storms. But, nonetheless, they can strengthen quite a bit even when the convection is some distance away. You can get a quite respectable tropical storm with a completely exposed LLC (e.g. Alberto 2006). Somehow the pull from the convection is transmitted horizontally through the tilted updraft column. Look on RGB and you can see the boundary layer clouds getting whipped up and picking up speed in arcs around the center.

edit: if you look for the center on vis or RGB you can see it's noticeably north of the forecast points. It took a jump north when it was strengthening earlier. Looks to be heading WNW again although it's getting hard to tell as convection starts to cover the LLC.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Chris...he broke the record in terms of strengthening to a hurricane. It only took 18 hours to go from an Invest to an 85mph hurricane.

Here's the text from NHC's 8am TWD:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO
STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT
HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18
HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY
AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL.

[Ixolib]

reminds me of TD10/11 in 2005

You mean the TD10 that eventually became TD12 that eventaully became Katrina?

Although somewhat off topic, and just for grins, here's what Stewart had to say back in August of 2005 about that situation...

From August 2005:
THE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY THAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A PREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY INCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A REVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE DESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS SITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE THAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.