CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[whereverwx]

Anyway...now he's back on track... as you can see by this new burst of convection.

[Wx_Warrior]

Probably not...

72

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_072m.gif

[destruction92]

tropical storm Dean looks awful on IR!!! Now I see why some models actually dissipate Dean...At this time tomorrow, we may not even be talking about Dean if this wind shear and dry air entrainment continues to mercilessly stab Dean.

[fci]

Edited out post as it repeats what other posts said (happens when you answer a post from 2 pages ago!).

Sorry...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[EyELeSs1]

I need the next QS pass... I am having some trouble even locating this thing, even on nighttime visible. Does look like we were tracking the MLC earlier today and that is again displaced from the circulation at the surface

completely agree!

[Scorpion]

Exactly what models dissipate Dean?

[storms in NC]

Hispanola kills hurricanes,Haiti DOES NOT . It would only take a few hours for the eye to pass over Haiti .

Haiti IS part of the island of Hispaniola. Hispaniola is divided between Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Here's a topographical map of Haiti. Unfortunately it doesn't note elevations.
http://209.15.138.224/haiti_maps/m_haiti_rel99x.htm

Sorry I went to wash dishes. now I was talking about haiti not Hispaniola or DR. just haiti a lone.

[RL3AO]

In a few hours, there will be a burst over the LLC and I will bump all these people that are saying Dean will dissipate.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

90 Hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[storms in NC]

To me it looks like it is regroup stage to me.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

90 hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

I dont speculate on landfalls this far in advance... except maybe by saying I favor from Martinique south

Kudos to Derek for mentioning yesterday that the GFDL tracking model was crap that was taking this out to sea. I actually thought it had fish written on it for sure as I looked at some previous storms in the same area and based on the weakness in the ridge the NHC writeups were mentioning. I'm eating crow big time now. While I"m not saying "out to sea" is still not a possibilty, it seems to be looking less and less likely with each model run. This is tough as the models have done some pretty drastic swinging over the last 24 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

well... I stand to lose money in a futures market if Dean dissipates... really the only way I can lose money after today's trading

[clfenwi]

I believe the hwrf model is supposed to be the #1 intensity model of them all. However, the NHC says they are relying on the gfdl beyond 72 hours. The likely reason is because they do not trust the hwrf showing 900mb. Although it seems unreasonable to them that tropical storm Dean can reach category 5 status in 126 hours, it is not impossible. For all the talk about how they are not where they would like to be on intensity forecast, it might serve them well if they wouldn't be afraid of trusting their best model when it shows rapid intensification. HWRF says cat 5, NHC says cat 2. We'll see who was right in 126 hours.

The HWRF is the latest in modeling guidance, but it isn't necessarily the greatest. While a comparision from 2004-2006 showed that it outperformed the GFDL in the 48-60 hr period, GFDL did beat it out at in the 60-120 timeframe and just about everything beat the HWRF in the short term forecast (source , last page of the PDF.)

That, combined with the general unwiseness of going with a single model and discarding the others, and possibly memories of overblown forecasts from 2006 are why the NHC didn't rely solely on the HWRF.
.

[destruction92]

To me it looks like it is regroup stage to me.

91 in the GOM looks better than Dean!
I'm telling you, whatever it may be (SAL, dry air, wind sheer, etc.), opposing forces are really doing a number on Dean. Maybe that is why some models have shown temporary and/or even permanent dissipation. Regarding the models, I am pretty sure that GFDL, NOGAPS, and/or Euro models have Dean temporarily weakening if not disappearing altogether.

Remember, if there is one thing that the NHC has the most trouble forecasting, it is intensity.

[KBBOCA]

So far this looks very close to the 5 p.m. NHC track

[KFDM Meteorologist]

102 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[storms in NC]

You will not see that much different till they run 2-3 runs JIMO

[Wx_Warrior]

All in on the same track with a Texas strike as the earlier run...