Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[vegastar]

There is a missing data set...

000
URNT15 KNHC 300738
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 28 20071030
072400 2056N 07337W 6707 03432 0015 +070 +062 170032 033 999 999 03
072430 2056N 07335W 6431 03791 0017 +051 +044 175031 032 041 003 00
072500 2055N 07334W 6190 04108 0020 +035 +021 179030 031 038 003 00
072530 2054N 07332W 5969 04391 0021 +015 +006 181030 031 038 003 03
072600 2054N 07330W 5746 04708 0021 -002 -014 185032 033 999 999 03
072630 2054N 07328W 5561 04973 0014 -012 -030 184033 035 040 002 00
072700 2053N 07326W 5391 05215 0204 -023 -032 178028 029 039 002 00
072730 2053N 07324W 5239 05444 0220 -036 -041 182025 026 038 001 00
072800 2053N 07322W 5162 05567 0232 -040 -049 184024 025 037 002 00
072830 2053N 07320W 5073 05710 0241 -046 -062 179022 023 037 001 00
072900 2053N 07318W 4991 05836 0251 -053 -070 175021 022 037 001 00
072930 2053N 07316W 4918 05958 0265 -059 -078 178022 022 036 001 00
073000 2052N 07314W 4864 06045 0271 -062 -083 184022 023 035 000 00
073030 2052N 07312W 4801 06148 0278 -070 -089 187020 021 035 001 00
073100 2052N 07309W 4748 06238 0287 -076 -096 194020 020 035 002 00
073130 2052N 07307W 4686 06340 0294 -082 -109 197019 020 033 002 00
073200 2052N 07305W 4630 06424 0293 -090 -108 194018 018 034 001 00
073230 2051N 07303W 4539 06580 0302 -097 -111 173022 026 033 002 00
073300 2051N 07301W 4471 06691 0305 -102 -116 167024 026 034 002 00
073330 2051N 07259W 4432 06760 0310 -105 -125 165020 021 033 003 00
$$
;
Plane ascending, mission over.

[Thunder44]

Interesting 55 mph winds. I dont think I've ever seen a system with 55 mph winds. Seems always that it is 50 or 60. I think that is because of the knots conversion.

55mph can be used for intermediate advisories. But not the full advisories. The winds are set to 60mph at the 5am Advisory.

[vegastar]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300842
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE CUBAN
WEATHER STATION 78365...PUNTA LUCRECIA... REPORTED A WIND SHIFT AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1000 MB AS THE CENTER MOVED NEARBY. THE
RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE U.S AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 52
KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KNOTS. NOEL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN
A LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS
WHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY AND THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD
RECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 3
DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL TRACK
GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS NOEL SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AWAY FROM FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY
IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS
EXPAND.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0900Z 21.3N 76.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 22.2N 77.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 31/0600Z 23.3N 78.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/1800Z 24.5N 78.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 02/0600Z 31.0N 72.4W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/0600Z 37.0N 66.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/0600Z 45.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[vegastar]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300841
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...AND
GUANTANAMO.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

INTEREST IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER
TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...RADAR DATA FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TOWN OF GIBARA ON THE
NORTH COAST OF CUBA...AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
HOWEVER...NOEL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SAME FORWARD
SPEED LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY NEAR AND PARALLEL TO THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THESE
RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

Mitch used 55 mph on the intermediate. They just use 45KT if they keep the winds at 55 mph on the advisories

[Evil Jeremy]

Todays the big day! The turn to the north should happen today, but it is a matter of when. Will it continue westward before turning north, or will it form into a hurricane and chug north and east? So many questions!

Also, if the storm continues on its westward streak further than anticipated, is it possible that Florida might be put under a Hurricane Watch?

HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY
IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS
EXPAND.

[Cookiely]

With the frontal boundary stationary, wouldn't that suggest a more westward movement for Noel and more of a threat for South Florida?

[caneman]

This is why the NHC says it will turn. From the NHC 5:00AM update

AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD
RECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM
THE UNITED STATES.

[Vortex]

6Z GFS rolling in...

H+36 Just SE of SFL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Thunder44]

Todays the big day! The turn to the north should happen today, but it is a matter of when. Will it continue westward before turning north, or will it form into a hurricane and chug north and east? So many questions!

Also, if the storm continues on its westward streak further than anticipated, is it possible that Florida might be put under a Hurricane Watch?

HOWEVER...A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY
IF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS
EXPAND.

The turn to the north shouldn't start happening until this evening, according to the latest NHC forecast. The forecast track is very close to the 0z GFS.

[Bgator]

Does anyone see the center in Cuba? looks at cuban radar, it seems to be in Cuba, weird.

[Thunder44]

Does anyone see the center in Cuba? looks at cuban radar, it seems to be in Cuba, weird.

I was just looking at their radar. It looks like the radar at Holguin is having technical problems. Although the center appeared to be on the coast a few hours ago.

[cycloneye]

[Bgator]

the Cuban radars seem to be at least 2 hours behind for some reason, i guess it doesnt update fast enough. Weird what it looks like though.

[caneman]

yeah it looks like it is at 21 and 77, moving West. Could the NHC have been that far off on the 5:00 update?

[Evil Jeremy]

wow, a cuban landfall! This is really going to affect the eventual path of Noel!

[Bgator]

You can see some banding features on cuban radar, but its gonne get beat up by thos e mountains if it doesnt get off soon.

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone see the center in Cuba? looks at cuban radar, it seems to be in Cuba, weird.

I see it too, lets wait an hour or so and see what happens before we call it inland and if it is than it probably wobbled southwest, this sytem wont like the eastern part of cuba at all. Wouldnt it be something if it continues on this track and comes in under cuba.

[Evil Jeremy]

This changes the entire story now. Those mountains are gonna rip 'er up, and that, coupled with the SW wobbles, is going to send this towards Florida, although it should be weak by then if that were to happen.

The post above is not official or endorsed by Storm2k, it is just my prediction. Refer to all products from the NHC for storm information.

[caneman]

Remember early on folks, some models had it sliding down into the NW Caribb. Perhpas they should have stuck to their guns.