Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

114 hours

A repeat of landfall area from the 18z run,Belize/Mexico (Yucatan) border.

[skysummit]

Troughiness to the north still so I still think it's going to come down to intensity and timing.

[cycloneye]

126 hours

Low is not there inside Yucatan.

[cycloneye]

Now,the attention will be to see if the 00z long range GFS is similar or close about the scenario of a hurricane hitting South Florida.For that go to long range models thread in Talking Tropics forum.

[vaffie]

126 hours

Low is not there inside Yucatan.

More importantly look at the shape of the isobars in the Gulf at 126 hours. Most of them are to the northwest or north. Something to keep in mind should it's track actually go through the Yucatan Channel.

[skysummit]

This run is also still persistent with a trough coming down at day 5. That's a difference from what it was showing with Dean.

[vaffie]

This run is also still persistent with a trough coming down at day 5. That's a difference from what it was showing with Dean.

Yes. The pattern is very different from the one that existed with Dean. I hope everyone understands this. There is a lot of "it's just like with Dean" being said. It's not. The reason why the models have it taking the same path as Dean is because it's rather far to the south in the Caribbean, but if current trends continue, it's going to be north of the model consensus in three days, and a track through the Yucatan Channel based on the gradual breakdown of the ridge in the Gulf seems quite likely.

[HouTXmetro]

This run is also still persistent with a trough coming down at day 5. That's a difference from what it was showing with Dean.

Yes. The pattern is very different from the one that existed with Dean. I hope everyone understands this. There is a lot of "it's just like with Dean" being said. It's not. The reason why the models have it taking the same path as Dean is because it's rather far to the south in the Caribbean, but if current trends continue, it's going to be north of the model consensus in three days, and a track through the Yucatan Channel based on the gradual breakdown of the ridge in the Gulf seems quite likely.

I keep seeing people posting images of a Monster High sitting in the Gulf. To me the path seams to be more certain than Dean that this will be a west runner.

[fox13weather]

This run is also still persistent with a trough coming down at day 5. That's a difference from what it was showing with Dean.

Yes. The pattern is very different from the one that existed with Dean. I hope everyone understands this. There is a lot of "it's just like with Dean" being said. It's not. The reason why the models have it taking the same path as Dean is because it's rather far to the south in the Caribbean, but if current trends continue, it's going to be north of the model consensus in three days, and a track through the Yucatan Channel based on the gradual breakdown of the ridge in the Gulf seems quite likely.

It is not very different, it is very similar!

Here is a nugget from the TD6 NHC discussion tonight.


<<THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
HURRICANE DEAN...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. >>

[Ed Mahmoud]

This run is also still persistent with a trough coming down at day 5. That's a difference from what it was showing with Dean.

Yes. The pattern is very different from the one that existed with Dean. I hope everyone understands this. There is a lot of "it's just like with Dean" being said. It's not. The reason why the models have it taking the same path as Dean is because it's rather far to the south in the Caribbean, but if current trends continue, it's going to be north of the model consensus in three days, and a track through the Yucatan Channel based on the gradual breakdown of the ridge in the Gulf seems quite likely.

I keep seeing people posting images of a Monster High sitting in the Gulf. To me the path seams to be more certain than Dean that this will be a west runner.

I agree. But looking at the GFS 500 mb heights between 144 and 168 hours, if Felix to be can get further North than predicted, to around 20ºN before hitting the Yucatan, it would encounter weak steering to the Northwest or North.


But it is never supposed to get that far North.

[skysummit]

This run is also still persistent with a trough coming down at day 5. That's a difference from what it was showing with Dean.

Yes. The pattern is very different from the one that existed with Dean. I hope everyone understands this. There is a lot of "it's just like with Dean" being said. It's not. The reason why the models have it taking the same path as Dean is because it's rather far to the south in the Caribbean, but if current trends continue, it's going to be north of the model consensus in three days, and a track through the Yucatan Channel based on the gradual breakdown of the ridge in the Gulf seems quite likely.

It is not very different, it is very similar!

Here is a nugget from the TD6 NHC discussion tonight.


<<THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. THE DEPRESSION
IS CURRENTLY IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF
HURRICANE DEAN...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. >>

Yes, I know...I read the discussion. It is similar for the next few days. It's at day 5 - 7 it's different. For Dean, the GFS was NOT showing any troughiness to the north. The GFS simply kept building the ridge west in parallel with Dean. For a few runs now, the GFS has built the ridge west, however, begins to weaken it by days 5 - 7 in response to a trof digging down.

Now, will TD6 be slowing down like the GFDL is suggesting? Will the EURO still show a super ridge at 00z? A lot of questions to be answered, but this is a different set up than for Dean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Canadian well South of Jamaica

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian has landfall near Nicaragua/Honduras border[*], and sees the 'rabbit out of a hat' East Coast threat Joe Bastardi has been toting.


About the second part, yes, I know, the Canadian is cyclone happy.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW... GFS is really underestimating the strength of this cyclone... even at 12 hr.

Compare 12Z 12 hr forecast and 0Z initialization.

[Blown Away]

Now,the attention will be to see if the 00z long range GFS is similar or close about the scenario of a hurricane hitting South Florida.For that go to long range models thread in Talking Tropics forum.

What scenario has a hurricane hitting SFL?

[skysummit]

Now,the attention will be to see if the 00z long range GFS is similar or close about the scenario of a hurricane hitting South Florida.For that go to long range models thread in Talking Tropics forum.

What scenario has a hurricane hitting SFL?

The 18z GFS had a super cane hitting SFL at 384 hours. Nothing on the 00z.

[wxmann_91]

Forums are quiet today, interesting.

Let's see how that error at 12 hr compounds into something much more significant.






I suspect GFS is still keeping future Felix weak as it develops convection over land that could shear Felix. Well, if Felix intensifies quickly enough (tonight's trends say that it will likely), it won't be affected.

[skysummit]

Yucatan again, but a little further north than the 18z, and still slows it down in the Western Caribbean.


WHXX04 KWBC 010522
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX 06L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 1

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.7 59.8 280./13.0
6 12.4 61.3 294./16.8
12 12.7 62.6 284./12.7
18 13.0 64.1 282./14.3
24 12.9 65.2 266./11.6
30 13.5 66.4 295./12.9
36 13.9 68.1 287./16.6
42 14.6 69.8 292./17.7
48 14.8 71.7 274./18.6
54 15.3 73.4 287./17.0
60 15.6 75.3 281./18.7
66 16.0 76.8 282./14.9
72 16.2 78.1 281./12.8
78 16.5 79.4 280./12.7
84 16.8 80.8 286./13.9
90 17.0 81.9 276./10.9
96 17.2 82.9 285./ 9.7
102 17.5 83.7 285./ 8.2
108 17.8 84.6 292./ 9.0
114 18.1 85.4 292./ 8.4
120 18.6 86.1 302./ 8.0
126 19.1 87.2 296./11.2

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFDL (available at AccuWeather PPV site) has a Cat 3 Felix about to make landfall on the Yucatan exactly where Dean did, pretty much. I'd post an image, but it wouldn't work.

[Scorpion]

I have a feeling that this will end up heading more poleward than expected. Also, I don't think we should use the globals to gauge the strength of this system, but rather the upper air pattern. I recall the GFS constantly underestimating Dean and keeping it as a TS/weak cane across the Caribbean.