INVEST 90L: Gulf of Mexico : Gone from NRL

[Derek Ortt]

CLIPER tends to be somewhat reliable in slow moving storms wher ethe guidance is spread (was good for Mitch and Keith)

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB is really amped on possible weekend or early week action for South Florida, cut a video. He thinks this does become a TS or STS, landfall extreme Upper Texas or Louisiana, but admits with cold core start, shear and dry air, it won't be spectacular.

[boca]

JB is really amped on possible weekend or early week action for South Florida, cut a video. He thinks this does become a TS or STS, landfall extreme Upper Texas or Louisiana, but admits with cold core start, shear and dry air, it won't be spectacular.

Do you have a link to his article or video?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Off to bed, and I think it was a good idea for NHC to request recon on standby for tomorrow. Better safe than sorry. But unless something really unusual happens overnight, based on satellite and radar, tomorrow's tasking will have language about all tasking for SE GOMEX invest being canx.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB is really amped on possible weekend or early week action for South Florida, cut a video. He thinks this does become a TS or STS, landfall extreme Upper Texas or Louisiana, but admits with cold core start, shear and dry air, it won't be spectacular.

Do you have a link to his article or video?

pay per view


I was one of the first to sign up, locked in about $100 per year, but I think prices are higher now.

proa.accuweather.com if you're so inclined.

Still don't know anyplace else for snow accumulation maps on internet.

Sleepy time...

[cycloneye]

00z NAM Loop



In case anyone is interested,here is the 00z NAM.

[ROCK]

Dr. Lyons from TWC just said the low was near the Keys and was moving W, he said there is alot of dry air in the Gulf and maybe a Subtropical system will form or dissipation due to the dry air. He seemed alot more interested in the weak low down in the SW Caribbean that was forecast to move into the Gulf in a few days.

Yep, Maybe the NAM and CMC were not doing drugs today..... We shall see...judging by the WV loop of the GOM the dry air does not seem as dry as earlier today.....

No, the CMC is definitely on drugs. If you'll notice, the Canadian model develops most upper-level lows into TCs. There are two upper low centers in the Gulf predicted, thus, 2 TCs. Just garbage. Never use the Canadian or NAM for tropics.

Yes, I am well aware of that WX57 thus my smilie face. If anything I look at the consensus of the models with formation and the EURO for track.

BTW- you sure didnt look 57 during the seminar. Maybe 40ish but not 57.....

[ROCK]

OK, call me a slave to climatology (some of you already have) but the two October hurricanes in 60 years rule looks like it will hold for Texas again. I guess we might be due again around 2019, but I don't operate that far into the future. Hmmm, with luck, my two oldest will be done with college by then.

yep your a climo hugger....... Once the westerlies kick in its over for the GOM...I will agree with that....

[ROCK]

0Z GFS rolling in.....


42hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif


54hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif


72hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif


84hrs...sort of weakens it as it moves into either Upper TX coast or LA.....hard to tell

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[robert_88]

0Z GFS rolling in.....


42hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif


54hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif


72hrs...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif


84hrs...sort of weakens it as it moves into either Upper TX coast or LA.....hard to tell

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

On the 84hrs graph is that a strong low on the N.C. coast?

[Steve]

>>Will this really be the last time you say that

One would hope so (also thanks to Rock for pointing it out earlier). Nothing like the internet equivalent of Chinese water torture.

Anyway, I'm more observing 90L right now. TD #10 provided a lot of discussion but not much of a storm. I see points leading in favor of a limited chance of anything forming as well as points that would show some potential for mid-grade development. It looks to me like the more time over water and the farther west, the more likely stronger it could get (shot for pattern reversal). We could see another tightening at landfall situation under those circumstances assuming a tropical low was present. But I don't have a strong feeling either way. There is ample energy but poor upper conditions. Looks like the immediate concern would be rain potential for Florida and then whether or not a secondary low was to form in the wake of 90L or coming up from the Caribbean. That's a for now.

Steve

[Ptarmigan]

I think this disturbance will probably form into a subtropical depression and storm at worst. More than likely, it will probably end up as a subtropical depression.

[Sanibel]

The upper level swirl seems to be organized to the west of the Keys.

[fci]

Casting one vote here for wxman57's forecast.
Has been on the money for most of these and I also am a firm member of the "climatology club".

[Derek Ortt]

any significant development should come from the area east of 90L... that mass in the Bahamas

[BigA]

any significant development should come from the area east of 90L... that mass in the Bahamas

My agreement doesnt mean much, but this may be what the CMC and GFS are trying to spin up in a few days.

For what its worth, a ship at 24.7N 80.6 W reported a pressure of 1007 mb. (29.74 in)

[robert_88]

any significant development should come from the area east of 90L... that mass in the Bahamas

Looks like this area of convection east of the Bahamas is looking better than 90L. Could become an invest in the next couple of days.

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020914
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA...ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EASTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[skysummit]

I'm going to agree with Derek.

My thoughts....90L in conjunction with the ULL near western Cuba will moisten up the gulf to pave the way. The area east of the Bahamas will have a fairly good environment with a 200mb high riding with it toward south Florida and the Gulf, and that will give it a much better chance at development than 90L. If we can get a surface low to develop near the convection east of the Bahamas, I think all systems are "go" for it.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 020719
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
319 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS RIDGING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ALOFT A LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CUBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TODAY...DRAGGING THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. OVERRUNNING RAINS NORTHWEST OF THE
BOUNDARY ARE EVIDENT ON 88D RETURNS THIS MORNING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDARY...AND THESE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE. THAT THREAT SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...INTO THE NATURE COAST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN
OUTLOOK PRODUCTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SOUPY AIR MASS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ALONG
WITH A VORTMIN CROSSING THE REGION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE TO
SCATTERED SHOWER(S) AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. EVEN WITH THIS
LIMIT...CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS/FUNNEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE SOUPY AIR MASS REMAINS...AND MORE MOIST AIR ALOFT
SHOULD HELP TO BRING BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE. ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE
FORECAST BY ECMWF AND GFS TO BE OFF THE EAST COAST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF
EXTENDED CLOUD COVER. WITH WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...EXPECT READINGS TO GO BACK ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. FROM WHAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN A FALL "TEASER" OF A WEAK BUT
DRYING AND COOLING FRONT BY NEXT MONDAY HAS SNAPPED BACK TO THE
REALITY OF THE GENERAL PATTERN WE`VE BEEN IN. LATEST GFS AND
CANADIAN ARE DEJA VU...WITH YET ANOTHER BROAD THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAK
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) SLIPPING UNDER WHAT HAS
BECOME A FAIRLY ROBUST AND PERSISTENT EASTERN U.S. RIDGE. SURFACE
REFLECTION SHOWS A 1005-1008 MB LOW DEEPENING A BIT OVER THE BAHAMAS
EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE STRAITS AND OUT INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF...AGAIN...SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

WHILE I NORMALLY WILL ONLY TWEAK THE EXTENDED FORECAST...I HAVE
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE LATEST TWO GFS RUNS (18Z AND 00Z) AS
WELL AS OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...WILL BEAR
SOME FRUIT. ADD TO THIS THE PERSISTENT POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) WHICH HAS BEEN DOMINANT FOR ABOUT THE
SAME PERIOD AS THIS CURRENT PATTERN OF AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE (AND GENERALLY WARM WEATHER) WHICH WILL REMAIN SO FOR A BIT
LONGER...AND SEE NO REASON TO INDICATE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR US...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL
AS WELL.

SO...FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER: THE ONCE DRY PUNCH OF AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER BRIDGING HIGH HAS NOW BEEN REPLACED BY FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND HIGH SURFACE-850 MB THICKNESSES
ALONG WITH SOME MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL PUNCH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...FAVORING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALSO
ADDED BACK THUNDER AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...AT OR
ABOVE 70.

SHOULD THE GFS/CANADIAN FORECAST PAN OUT...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
WILL PASS THROUGH THE STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
FAVORABLE EAST SIDE OF TUTT WILL FOLLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES...EVEN AT NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED AT 50 PERCENT EACH DAY AND
HELD ISOLATED ALL NIGHT...THOUGH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT WE`LL
CERTAINLY ADJUST AS WE`VE HAD TO DO FOR THE PRESENT ACTIVITY.

HOT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S (AT BEST) SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...AND
ULTIMATELY SHOULD A WET DAY BE IN THE OFFING THE HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
STILL. DEW POINTS WILL DROP A LITTLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FROM THE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY SWELTER...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FROM NEARING 100. CLOSING OUT THE PERIOD...DEEP
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE SOUPY MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIXED BAG OF A DAY...BUT OVERALL E