INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[Derek Ortt]

again, Karen PLAYED NO ROLE IN THIS DISTURBANCE

[Derek Ortt]

it is not fighting anything in the GOM

Model NCEP has shear over the system currently... while WV shows uppe ridging over the system. It is fighting something in the model now, not the GOM

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

boca,this morning you saw the position of low more north (27n) than what the 12:00 UTC models had.Guess what,at the 18:00 UTC iniciation point they have it at 26.9n so you saw it right this morning.Now we have to see how the more north position affects if any the future track.

[Weatherboy1]

I think (based on high-res visible satellite) there might even be a "center" further north -- around 28/71.3. At the very least, there apperas to be a "naked swirl" that has maintained itself for several frames in that vicinity. It appears that a bit of NW-erly shear is displacing the convection south of its locale. On the other hand, it could just fizzle out, with a real center forming further south. But it is worth noting, in my view ...

Go to this link, then click in that general vicinity with "high" selected as the zoom factor to see what I'm talking about ...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[hurricanetrack]

My take: wait until this thing gets a real center and is an actual tropical cyclone- not just an invest on a map. Then we can see what the intensity models do with it.

Until then, go out and play- there's little to see here.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 19:15 UTC

[x-y-no]

So the deeper the system, the more southerly the track ...

[Weatherboy1]

I'm more worried about what I'll jokingly call the "angle of attack." IF a center forms farther north (in the 28N vicinity), then even a WSW motion (which is what the models are forecasting) could mean a direct impact for South Florida, vs. a move farther south (which would result in Cuba or the Straits bearing the brunt of any possible hit). Of course, at this stage we don't even have a TD, much less something more powerful. So this is all idle speculation. But that's what is on my mind at this hour.

[hurricanetrack]

Oh yeah- it is definitely a swirl there with nice spiral arms. Not large but there and moving northwest it appears:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Add the lat/lon and speed up the animation. Near 28 and 71.3 as mentioned above.

[GeneratorPower]

Many of the models showed Dean as a 999mb low when it was a Cat 5. Intensity off these models is the funniest joke of them all.

Please stop using the intensity data from the GFS. It's embarrassing.

[jlauderdal]

12z GFDL Animation

GFDL Predicts a very weak joke of a storm..

Yes it does which means it will be fighting something in the GOM.
The GFS also shows the same with it's lastest run. In my opinion
all great news if this comes to pass.

it couldnt fight off a bad run, look its real early in the game and we will see funky model runs so dont start calling it until you see consistency.

[Stormcenter]

Many of the models showed Dean as a 999mb low when it was a Cat 5. Intensity off these models is the funniest joke of them all.

Please stop using the intensity data from the GFS. It's embarrassing.

What about the GFDL? It shows it as a pretty tame system too and I think it's
a better model when it comes to intensity.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL also has 993mb... not exactly a weak cyclone

[Stormcenter]

Well the bottom line is that most if not all of the models
don't show this as a U.S. mainland threat except for maybe
skirting or coming over lower Fl. but that would before it strenghthen significantly (if it did). Most of the models agree on a track which takes 92L westward across the Yucatan or into the BOC. That in my opinion is saying a lot when models agree this early.

[cpdaman]

it seems as though conditions thankfully (for those in fl and keys) are not in a hurry to become conductive for this to do anything fast

Promet's any idea when the upper air shear will relax over this invest

[Cyclenall]

GFDL also has 993mb... not exactly a weak cyclone

That's what I thought but it seems that is the new "very weak" type of tropical cyclone among everyone. Next we'll start hearing how a category 3 hurricane wasn't strong enough.

['CaneFreak]

Shear is not a problem and has not been a problem for this disturbance or invest if you will since about this time yesterday. The problem right now is developing a tight core. As the promets have said already, if you will go back and read, it will take a couple of days in order for this to develop a tight LLC and until it does that, it will remain a rather poorly organized tropical wave. But once it gets a core going, its anybody's guess what happens then.

[Blown Away]

So the deeper the system, the more southerly the track ...

I thought shallow systems tend to move more west and deeper systems tend to move poleward?

['CaneFreak]

Vortex, hard to argue w/ you. Looks like a cyclonic spin near 27.6N/71W w/ convection building around that area. I'm basing that observation on the NHC visible floater. Wxman57 has better resources to determine LLC locations. That being said, I can't imagine there is high confidence on the LLC location at this point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

There isn't a significant LLC at this point, just a small low-level eddy well north of the convection. May not have a well-defined LLC for another day or two.