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Opal storm

Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1801 Postby Opal storm » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:40 pm

Hopefully this is just another crap shoot and not a trend.
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#1802 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:40 pm

174 500..New Orleans to Pensacola by looking at this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1803 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:41 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re:

#1804 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:41 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:174 hr back to FL Panhandle possibily

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif


I missed earlier GFS runs, is this end run E or W of the earlier runs?
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#1805 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:41 pm

East
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#1806 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:42 pm

174 500..New Orleans to Pensacola by looking at this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif
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Re:

#1807 Postby stormchazer » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:42 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:174 500..New Orleans to Pensacola by looking at this.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif



I look at it this way. The FL panhandle had not gotten their turn yet so the GFS wanted to oblige. It all seems to revolve around timing. How strong? How fast? How sharp a trough?
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1808 Postby sunnyday » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:42 pm

I must have heard the same weatherman in Jupiter tonight. He also said the mountains of the Dominican Republic will tear Dean apart. Good to know we're so safe, huh?
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Re: Re:

#1809 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:43 pm

Blown_away wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:174 hr back to FL Panhandle possibily

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif


I missed earlier GFS runs, is this end run E or W of the earlier runs?



the trend is your friend...if there is a trend.

Actually, this morning GFS predicted South Florida....then Texas...now possibly Panhandle
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1810 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:44 pm

Crap! Right over SW Louisiana!
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#1811 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:44 pm

126 hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
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Re:

#1812 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:44 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Cuba don't Kill storms DR does...
Dennis 2005 for one...Cuba will destroy a storm. It's possible it could come back like Dennis did, but nothing is certain.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1813 Postby flwxwatcher » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:44 pm

None of the models have really had a good handle on this storm yet. Even the EURO, while not having the track spray like the GFS has shown has had both speed and intensity problems. Alot of model runs to view the coming days so I have a feeling people better break out the Xanax:):). It looks like it will be a few days before the final destination starts to come in focus IMHO..
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1814 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:45 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Full run, but focuses on North America. Goes over LA.
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1815 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:45 pm

2 back 2 back GFS runs....I dont like the looks of this guys for SETX/SWLA
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean (pg.28) Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#1816 Postby shannon » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:45 pm

I am in Jupiter too, it must have been the same guy. I usually try and skip the news at his shift, as he annoys me even when it is not hurricane season. :lol:
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Re:

#1817 Postby Opal storm » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:45 pm


I know that this will change...but dang. :eek:
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1818 Postby Tenspeed » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:46 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Crap! Right over SW Louisiana!

Say it ain't so!
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#1819 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:46 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_228l.gif

Landfall Sabine River
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Re: Tropical Storm Dean - Global Models=18z GFS is being posted

#1820 Postby destruction92 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:46 pm

flwxwatcher wrote:None of the models have really had a good handle on this storm yet. Even the EURO, while not having the track spray like the GFS has shown has had both speed and intensity problems. Alot of model runs to view the coming days so I have a feeling people better break out the Xanax:):). It looks like it will be a few days before the final destination starts to come in focus IMHO..


best statement of today
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