Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

NHC dismissed the FL winds and SFMR data as being unrepresentative of the storms intensity and kept it at 35mph.

I guess that's what happened. I thought they were going to go with the RECON data.

[Wx_Warrior]

I love JB but he said this once was a western GOM storm and lookout Texas!

[MGC]

Rather quick transistion to tropical status....TS by 5pm?......MGC

[KWT]

Maybe, recon winds did seem to support tropical storm status though they may have used a rather low conversion given the lack of deep convection, and indeed the lack of deep convection doesn't help on the organisation front either.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely see convection wrapping the center now on radar or at least very close to it. It could deepen a bit before landfall. SST's out there are 85-86 and the water is shallow.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[BigA]

Definitely see convection wrapping the center now on radar or at least very close to it. .

Yeah, on radar it seems to be waxing a bit more organized. We should get the J name out of the way by the time we are done with this one, and yay for beneficial rain.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where the heck is the Special Report stating TS Jerry? Ive never seen so many RECON obs and no upgrade?

[Lowpressure]

I love JB but he said this once was a western GOM storm and lookout Texas!

That is a surprise!

[fci]

I love JB but he said this once was a western GOM storm and lookout Texas!

That is a surprise!

He also had Ingrid as a Cat 2 last weekend entering the Bahamas.
Just proves that NO ONE knows, including JB.

[HURAKAN]

I love JB but he said this once was a western GOM storm and lookout Texas!

That is a surprise!

He also had Ingrid as a Cat 2 last weekend entering the Bahamas.
Just proves that NO ONE knows, including JB.

And don't forget the sub-970 mb Gabrielle impacting North Carolina!!

Anyone with some understanding in tropical cyclone formation can guess as good as he does.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Brent]

That is a surprise!

He also had Ingrid as a Cat 2 last weekend entering the Bahamas.
Just proves that NO ONE knows, including JB.

And don't forget the sub-970 mb Gabrielle impacting North Carolina!!

Anyone with some understanding in tropical cyclone formation can guess as good as he does.

and a 988 mb TD 6...

[Ivanhater]

Unless this things blows up overnight...just some rain and wind...I think we can handle it

[southerngale]

Enough met bashing.... back on topic, please.

[fci]

[quote="Lowpressure

That is a surprise!

He also had Ingrid as a Cat 2 last weekend entering the Bahamas.
Just proves that NO ONE knows, including JB.

And don't forget the sub-970 mb Gabrielle impacting North Carolina!!

Anyone with some understanding in tropical cyclone formation can guess as good as he does.[/quote]

LOL, I forgot about the 970 monster!!!!!
But I did read that he is 4.5 out of 5 on homegrown gulf systems.
I guess this one does not count.

I agree, he has a whole lot more knowledge than I ever will but is not the Wizard of the Tropics as some may profess. I always am curious as to what he is predicting and thinking but also am of what the Pro Mets here have to say just as much (and in some cases maybe more)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is a lot of data supporting a upgrade to Jerry. 47 knot flight level winds I read in the recon thread. Thats 43 mph at the surface alone. 38-39 knot surface winds. I fully expect a upgrade and really so if convection fires.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Look at this close up satellite loop of TD #10 and points South.


While the influence of TD #10 is keeping the weak low at the end of that trough in check, the weak low is also interupting inflow into the Southern side of TD #10. Look at the low cloud lines.

[Ed Mahmoud]

In JB's defense, after calling a system of not purely tropical origin to threaten Texas this weekend, last weekend, he started pointing out how he could be wrong two days ago, and pretty much got on board with everyone else/the models last night.


So, as he puts it sometimes, he blew the end game, but he was days ahead of anyone in eve seeing that there was going to be a game to blow.

[Ptarmigan]

Alabama can take all the rain from this. They need it anyways. JB is not perfect, but he gets it right sometimes. No one is perfect.