TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[canegrl04]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

[fasterdisaster]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

Are you serious? That's simply ridiculous.

[jaxfladude]

Go! Shear, Go!

[canegrl04]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

Are you serious? That's simply ridiculous.

All I keep reading on this board tonight is that Ingrid doesn't stand a chance. No I'm not serious

[Brent]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

Are you serious? That's simply ridiculous.

All I keep reading on this board tonight is that Ingrid doesn't stand a chance. No I'm not serious

Just like 90L wasn't supposed to develop, eh?

Do I need to make a list of storms that were sheared to almost nothing, declared dead, and went on to become famous?

[RL3AO]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

Are you serious? That's simply ridiculous.

All I keep reading on this board tonight is that Ingrid doesn't stand a chance. No I'm not serious

There is a difference between not being a Cat 4 cane in 120hours and not standing a chance.

[chrisnnavarre]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

This morning there were probably a whole bunch of folks over on the Texas coast doing this:

[wxman57]

Though I defer to WXMAN57 knowledge and experience,I'm willing to bet that he'd agree that the forecast map he showed is not a done deal...

I think several others have posted earlier that the models have not done a very good job with predicted shear this year. Some shear over this storm would be bad I'm assuming because it will keep it weak enough, (i.e. not able to totally stack) to continue on a more westward track. I gets stuck under that ridge and CONUS could definently be threatened. I'm also concerned about the possiblity that something could spin up in the SW Carribean as well because some models are hinting now at that. If both of these situations pan out then living here on the Panhandle of Florida would sort of remind me of being caught between bases during a double play.

It's not just shear that all the models are predicting - it's a MASSIVE TUTT (upper low/trof) blocking Ingrid's path. That's far worse than just a pocket of shear if it develops. Nothing could survive such an environment if the models are correct in predicting it. With such a big feature and with all models predicting it, I'd say there's a high probability the TUTT will develop.

[skysummit]

Do I need to make a list of storms that were sheared to almost nothing, declared dead, and went on to become famous?

I have a list....I also have a list of the members and "esteemed members" who said it. Would you like me to send it to you

[canegrl04]

Okay ,since the pro mets say Ingrid's goose is about to be cooked,time to move on and look for the next one to form

This morning there were probably a whole bunch of folks over on the Texas coast doing this:

I don't think Ingrid will give up the ghost,but it seems there are alot who think it will from the shear

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Though I defer to WXMAN57 knowledge and experience,I'm willing to bet that he'd agree that the forecast map he showed is not a done deal...

I think several others have posted earlier that the models have not done a very good job with predicted shear this year. Some shear over this storm would be bad I'm assuming because it will keep it weak enough, (i.e. not able to totally stack) to continue on a more westward track. I gets stuck under that ridge and CONUS could definently be threatened. I'm also concerned about the possiblity that something could spin up in the SW Carribean as well because some models are hinting now at that. If both of these situations pan out then living here on the Panhandle of Florida would sort of remind me of being caught between bases during a double play.

It's not just shear that all the models are predicting - it's a MASSIVE TUTT (upper low/trof) blocking Ingrid's path. That's far worse than just a pocket of shear if it develops. Nothing could survive such an environment if the models are correct in predicting it. With such a big feature and with all models predicting it, I'd say there's a high probability the TUTT will develop.

I a million percent agree with what your saying wxman57. This tutt will kill this system if it does what the models think it will do. This is a 97 El nino like Tutt.

[fci]

Well until I see a Pro Met refute that wxman57 is saying (and I seriously DOUBT that will happen); I am just an amused bystander as Ingrid is born and then has an early demise.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Of course, in a similar vein to the floor cleaning product that is also a desert topping (who gets that reference), shear is so bad future Ingrid degenerates to a tropical wave, returns to being steered in the generally shallow flow, gets past the TUTT, enters lighter shear, and starts all over again. Then people can predict Cat 4 in 3 days hitting their city, or someone else's city, all over again.

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

Though I defer to WXMAN57 knowledge and experience,I'm willing to bet that he'd agree that the forecast map he showed is not a done deal...

I think several others have posted earlier that the models have not done a very good job with predicted shear this year. Some shear over this storm would be bad I'm assuming because it will keep it weak enough, (i.e. not able to totally stack) to continue on a more westward track. I gets stuck under that ridge and CONUS could definently be threatened. I'm also concerned about the possiblity that something could spin up in the SW Carribean as well because some models are hinting now at that. If both of these situations pan out then living here on the Panhandle of Florida would sort of remind me of being caught between bases during a double play.

It's not just shear that all the models are predicting - it's a MASSIVE TUTT (upper low/trof) blocking Ingrid's path. That's far worse than just a pocket of shear if it develops. Nothing could survive such an environment if the models are correct in predicting it. With such a big feature and with all models predicting it, I'd say there's a high probability the TUTT will develop.

I have to say Wxman I am skeptical. Big TUTT lows are common in June and July but September? Are you kidding me? The models did not get Gabrielle right and I don't think they have it right here. I do see a pocket of shear and the resemblance of a TUTT-low feature but most of the intense winds are in the Central Caribbean.

I think Ingrid moves WNW to W and stays at check or weakens to a TD and then pulls out of the area with strong UL winds and emerges north of the Greater Antilles strenghtening and moving WNW.

It's mid September not mid July.

Let the controversy continue.

[gatorcane]

and one other thing to notice.

You see that big Upper-Level Low spinning away a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico? That is the supposed shear maker that will crush Ingrid.

Take a look how it was stationary but is starting to push to the west. That opens the door for Ingrid. There is also a trough digging down in the central Atlantic. The NOGAPs thinks Ingrid may be sucked into it. I doubt that because Ingrid is too weak.

So if that ULL moves off to the west in tandem with this slow moving Ingrid...things could happen.

When you have a system moving as slow as Ingrid, the accuracy of the models clearly goes down as it did with slow moving Gabrielle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[deltadog03]

JB likes to talk about this being the full back running the gauntlett. sp. I havn't heard him say much about the system, but in the past he has said that if the storm can make it through there then glory is on the other side. I do agree with wxman in that the models do forecast a big TUTT to be out there. I still feel that if this can survive through there then the other side could mean some favorable conditions to go ahead and blow up.

['CaneFreak]

For those that are interested, the latest quickscat is in and it shows some uncontaminated 35 knot winds. This just confirms that we will have Ingrid at 11 pm.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[brunota2003]

What does not kill thy, only makes thy stronger.

[wxmann_91]

Here's a shear map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The TUTT axis extends from Bermuda, southwest to the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula.

That's pretty big. And of course that's the reason for the 50 kt westerly shear in the Caribbean.

I suspect the cutoff low in the north central Atlantic is the reason for this TUTT. Like what happened in 2006, though the low was carried off eventually by the jet stream, some vorticity remnants evaded being carried off, and drifted south-southwestward. These remnants are sorta clumping together with each other and with existing ULL's in the western Atlantic to form this massive TUTT.

It's definitely not something one would likely see in Sept preceding a La Nina winter, but it goes to show that climate indexes aren't everything, I guess.