Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

looks to me that the center is trying to reform right on the Cuban coast.

[CrazyC83]

From my view, the center appears to be back offshore on that shot...

[Vortex]

Surface reports from Cuba all support the centers location over Cuba as it nears the NW carribean sea..

[Sal Collaziano]

It seems funny to me that even though Noel has gone so much further west than originally thought, it's still predicted to take the same path far away from the Florida coast, northeast...

[HURAKAN]

516
NOUS42 KNHC 301500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 30 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z OCTOBER TO 01/1100Z NOVEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-155

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM NOEL
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 31/1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0816A NOEL
C. 31/1115Z
D. 22.8N 78.7W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 31/2100, 01/0000Z
B. NOAA3 0916A NOEL
C. 31/1900Z
D. 23.6N 78.7W
E 31/2030Z TO 01/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 70
A. 01/0300, 0600, 0900Z
B. AFXXX 1016A NOEL
C. 01/2345Z
D. 25.6N 78.0W
E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 01/1200Z IF SYSTEM STILL A THREAT.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
RAB

[HURAKAN]

761
WTNT41 KNHC 301500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL
REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS...
HOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE
ALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS
BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE NEXT AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE
THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE
AIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270
DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS
NOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS
DOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND
NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS
SLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.

THE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER
INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A
LITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER
WATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
BAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED. THE
CHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR. NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.1N 77.4W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 31/0000Z 21.4N 78.3W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 31/1200Z 22.5N 78.7W 40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
36HR VT 01/0000Z 24.0N 78.6W 50 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.2N 77.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 32.5N 71.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1200Z 39.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1200Z 46.5N 58.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Tropics Guy]

Though the old LLC is over Cuba (supported by wind observations), it appears that a new center may have reformed (or forming) just off the NE coast of Cuba, tracking WNW. It could just be a MLC, but it could work down to the surface IMHO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TG

[Vortex]

Late storms are notorious for unexpected twists and turns...However, given the fact this is weak and shallow at the moment with strong ridging to the north a track west into the NW carribean seems reasonable...

[DanKellFla]

How is this storm holding together with the center spending so much time over land?

[artist]

according to Derek there is a new center just north of Cuba

[Vortex]

Cayman Brac(Cayman islands) now has gusty N winds and Kingston WSW all supportive of the LLC nearing Carribean waters...

[umguy1]

It's over one of the flatter parts of Cuba I believe. So that would help.

[alienstorm]

I am more in line with the NAM model taking it into the NW carribbean and then turning it north eventually. However, there is a chance now that the trough will miss the storm and it may hang around in the carribbean for a few more days.

The Hurricane Center does not have a good handle on this and for the sake of the Bahamas and Florida lets hope that their forecast is correct. But I certainly have my doubts.

[HenkL]

The new POD for tomorrow starts with mission number 8. So I suppose three of the five missions for this afternoon / tomorrow morning have been cancelled, although the POD doesn't mention it ?

[Thunder44]

The new POD for tomorrow starts with mission number 8. So I suppose three of the five missions for this afternoon / tomorrow morning have been cancelled, although the POD doesn't mention it ?

The NHC said another flight won't go out to until late tonight, as long as the center is over land.

[ronjon]

The 12Z NAM scenario is an interesting one. It initializes the low off the NE Cuba coast this morning and then moves it SW into the NW caribbean and migrates it westward past 81W south of Cuba. It then looks like it slowly moves the main low into S FL and stalls it for about 24 hrs before shooting it NE. It keeps a piece of energy (broad low) behind in the NW Caribbean. The model is an outlier and it is the NAM but could be a plausible scenario that would really throw a curve in the forecast. Not sure it's likely - more likely a new LLC forms off the north coast if Cuba as of now (I think).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

[fci]

Last night I kidded that this was looking a lot like Ernesto with the center getting stuck over Cuba. Maybe these storms are sticking to the sugar cane??

Seriously, if this gets into the NW Carib and then makes the move
north; is there a chance that it hits South Florida from the SW?
Or would it re-cross Cuba on a beeline NE?

The first possibility seems to be the only way that we would get rain from this system.

I am NOT predicting this to occur but am simply asking if anyone else thinks this might happen.
Especially asking any Pro Mets who are reading this.

[wzrgirl1]

i do believe that almost anything is possible as far as the track goes....but i think the intensity forecast will be correct

[cpdaman]

folks check out this large view WV http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

note the abrupt cut off of any convection building westward past central cuba

perhaps this is an indication of strong shear soon