Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[deltadog03]

This think has plenty of time to get going in a very very quick moment

[Coredesat]

It looks like a 30 kt TD now.

Yes, i agree with you. TD-Seven is here!!!!! I am excited. But there is a lot of things to happen before Gabrielle. By sunday's morning I wait peak intensity.

TD7 is not here until the NHC says it is.

[PhillyWX]

Where would the NHC put up warnings? They think the storm is heading WNW but as soon as they upgrade it they are going to have to be more precise than that. The upper level winds are kind of complex with the trough and the ridge and maybe an ULL. It would really look bad if the NHC issued Storm warnings for the Carolinas and Gabrielle ended up rolling across Florida.

Unofficial opinion only: I would think watches from South Carolina up to Hatteras to start. Almost all model guidance suggests no Florida hit -- and that's looking at more than just where the L tracks on the map. The 500 mb pattern suggests a turn for 99L/Gabby more to the N in advance of the frontal boundary/trough.

[miamicanes177]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

[PhillyWX]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

An upgrade at 8 PM?

[Brent]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

I don't see how they can't start advisories by 11pm. Just need a VDM now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears to be mostly closed if not closed. They found west wind...Which is normally the weakest quad, so I assume that the thing is closed. We will see if the nhc upgrades it. 48 knots flight level at .8 reduce=44.16 mph at surface.

[CrazyC83]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

An upgrade at 8 PM?

They are in a pickle for sure now...there is only a broad circulation, but there is a circulation nonetheless. Once again I think there is heated debate amng NHC mets...

[ConvergenceZone]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

Well, like Derek said, tropical storm winds should't affect life and property like a hurricane would, of course if it were a slow mover, it would be different, no rush

[deltadog03]

Hey guys, do we have a llc near that cloud mass at 74w?? Or am I seeing the llc get ingested to that location.

[hurricanedude]

tell those in SE va that tropical storm winds dont effect life and property.....isabel ring a bell?

[cpdaman]

Maybe the NHC was actually considering the split scenario in the Maryland discussion? By 10 PM tonight we should know if the 74w LLC is going to dominate and what the longer term motion is. Could save a lot of people that pre storm shopping rush.

since that disco is from 4 1/2 hours ago and the upper low was forecast to close off (going way back to discussion from the last few days), i believe they are talking about the uLL that is now at 28 76 west and moving west (although it looks more and more defined) it is moving faster than the llC to the east but shear will probably be persist for a while from the south

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

the LLC is further east IMO appox 70-71 W

that mass blob to the west is the ULL (closed low)

[ConvergenceZone]

tell those in SE va that tropical storm winds dont effect life and property.....isabel ring a bell?

wasn't isabel moving much slower though?. Maybe flood watches would be good however.

[PhillyWX]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

An upgrade at 8 PM?

They are in a pickle for sure now...there is only a broad circulation, but there is a circulation nonetheless. Once again I think there is heated debate amng NHC mets...

I would not be surprised if they go subtropical until it gets its act together and consolidates.

[Coredesat]

tell those in SE va that tropical storm winds dont effect life and property.....isabel ring a bell?

Well, Isabel wasn't a weak system. I think it would be better to stick with a watch for weak TSes (since the winds usually begin to diminish shortly after landfall, and TS warnings are coastal), and upgrade to warnings if they strengthen.

[WindRunner]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

Well, like Derek said, tropical storm winds should't affect life and property like a hurricane would, of course if it were a slow mover, it would be different, no rush

No. You can't say that. ANY tropical system will put life and property at risk regardless of intensity. Heavy rainfall and even high wind gusts can cause major problems. Plus, this certainly has the potential to become a hurricane before hitting the coast . . . not necessarily likely, but a definate and real possibility.

[miamicanes177]

FL winds now stand at 48kts putting the NHC in a very tough situation. They do have a charge to protect life and property, and I suspect they will begin issuing advisories on TS Gabrielle to fulfill that ultimate mission.

Well, like Derek said, tropical storm winds should't affect life and property like a hurricane would, of course if it were a slow mover, it would be different, no rush

no but it does have 48 more hours over warm waters to strengthen. The question is not how strong it is now, but how strong it will be. That is why a forecast is required. A nowcast yields a 45mph TS.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see this has significantly organized since this morning, with a shield of clouds over the west side, but you have to admit...this is the worst looking 50mph (possible) TS there has been so far in the last few years. This thing is almost as ugly as grace right now, but is organizing fairly fast now. Organization will likely catch up with its strength overnight and tomorrow. To say my opinion, I could see a hurricane tomorrow night and an even stronger one on sunday before landfall, based on the way it has been organizing. Remember yesterday at this time? It was virtually dieing out and now look at it

[CrazyC83]

I see this has significantly organized since this morning, with a shield of clouds over the west side, but you have to admit...this is the worst looking 50mph (possible) TS there has been so far in the last few years. This thing is almost as ugly as grace right now, but is organizing fairly fast now. Organization will likely catch up with its strength overnight and tomorrow. To say my opinion, I could see a hurricane tomorrow night and an even stronger one on sunday before landfall, based on the way it has been organizing. Remember yesterday at this time? It was virtually dieing out and now look at it

Arlene was 70 mph and had no convection at all on its west side - same with Alberto...

[Brent]

I see this has significantly organized since this morning, with a shield of clouds over the west side, but you have to admit...this is the worst looking 50mph (possible) TS there has been so far in the last few years. This thing is almost as ugly as grace right now, but is organizing fairly fast now. Organization will likely catch up with its strength overnight and tomorrow. To say my opinion, I could see a hurricane tomorrow night and an even stronger one on sunday before landfall, based on the way it has been organizing. Remember yesterday at this time? It was virtually dieing out and now look at it

Oh I've seen several much worse looking storms just in the last 3 years.