TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[aguaviva]

and one other thing to notice.

You see that big Upper-Level Low spinning away a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico? That is the supposed shear maker that will crush Ingrid.

Take a look how it was stationary but is starting to push to the west. That opens the door for Ingrid. There is also a trough digging down in the central Atlantic. The NOGAPs thinks Ingrid may be sucked into it. I doubt that because Ingrid is too weak.

So if that ULL moves off to the west in tandem with this slow moving Ingrid...things could happen.

When you have a system moving as slow as Ingrid, the accuracy of the models clearly goes down as it did with slow moving Gabrielle.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Yes that feature is moving west perhaps west southwest

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I got a question, do you think I'm right to say this is a 1997 kind of TUTT?

[boca]

I guess this tutt should put a cap on the season for a week or so.

[jasons2k]

It's definitely not something one would likely see in Sept preceding a La Nina winter, but it goes to show that climate indexes aren't everything, I guess.

And that is the $1,000,000 answer my friend. Climatology is an aid but by no means the be all, end all.

[Brent]

It's officially Ingrid.

TROPICAL STORM INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.7W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.7W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.1N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.6N 50.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.2N 51.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.7N 52.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 56.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ed Mahmoud]

Does this thread get locked, or does the name just change?

[jhamps10]

Does this thread get locked, or does the name just change?

name changes, that's all. we keep the same thread till last advisory from NHC.

[hial2]

Of course, in a similar vein to the floor cleaning product that is also a desert topping (who gets that reference), shear is so bad future Ingrid degenerates to a tropical wave, returns to being steered in the generally shallow flow, gets past the TUTT, enters lighter shear, and starts all over again. Then people can predict Cat 4 in 3 days hitting their city, or someone else's city, all over again.

Well Mr Mahmoud,I get the reference...Saturday Night Live skit...who took over from The Midnight Special with The Wolfman..thanks for the memories..God,am I old..now,back on topic

[tolakram]

TUTT

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A10.html

[cycloneye]

The thread continues open until the end of the system.

[jhamps10]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2007

...THE NINTH STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST OR ABOUT 840
MILES...1355 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

humm, they must have disregarded the 998 reading.

[Brent]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess this tutt should put a cap on the season for a week or so.

Not per JB- he just posted again, pattern will be favorable for weak wave ( I think there may be a really weak feature getting sheared North of 20ºN near 60ºW) to rapidly develop when its gets closer to Florida, a SE or Gulf threat, and he still says remnants of Humberto (which a few models do show getting back into Gulf near Mobile, but non with development) has a chance to re-develop and hit Texas again.


I know he isn't a favorite, but you can't knock his Humberto call from last Friday.

[RL3AO]

Can't wait for the waste of name posts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If, on the odd chance JB is right, if Humberto does make a Gulf comeback, does a new thread start, or do you guys unlock the previous thread?

[fci]

Given the postion estimates from the 11:00 PM Discussion of:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/0300Z 14.7N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.1N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.6N 50.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 16.2N 51.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.7N 52.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 17.8N 56.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 58.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 20.5N 60.5W 30 KT

those of you who are "Hebert Box " devotees; Ingrid (if she is still even a named systme at 120 hours) just MISSES the box.

I have to concur that the Hebert Box gets way too much attention and as another member said before; a storm IN the box does not necessarily equal a Florida threat. But it still seems to be interpreted that way by some..

[Brent]

Can't wait for the waste of name posts.

I give it 30 minutes.

I also think this "hebert box" idea gets WAY too much attention.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I guess this tutt should put a cap on the season for a week or so.

Not per JB- he just posted again, pattern will be favorable for weak wave ( I think there may be a really weak feature getting sheared North of 20ºN near 60ºW) to rapidly develop when its gets closer to Florida, a SE or Gulf threat, and he still says remnants of Humberto (which a few models do show getting back into Gulf near Mobile, but non with development) has a chance to re-develop and hit Texas again.


I know he isn't a favorite, but you can't knock his Humberto call from last Friday.

WV loop, I think something is interacting with that ULL

[Category 5]

Can't wait for the waste of name posts.

I'm suprised they haven't started already.

we already have had them calling it a bust, the waste of name posts will come right behind them.

[boca]

I guess this tutt should put a cap on the season for a week or so.

Not per JB- he just posted again, pattern will be favorable for weak wave ( I think there may be a really weak feature getting sheared North of 20ºN near 60ºW) to rapidly develop when its gets closer to Florida, a SE or Gulf threat, and he still says remnants of Humberto (which a few models do show getting back into Gulf near Mobile, but non with development) has a chance to re-develop and hit Texas again.


I know he isn't a favorite, but you can't knock his Humberto call from last Friday.

Its like a reincarnated hurricane,it goes inland weakens heads south into the Gulf and hits Texas all over again. While we can't get a drop of water here in SE Florida.