Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[tolakram]

It looks pretty shabby at the moment. Confused even.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what happens when DMAX kicks in.

Note=Thread reached 100 pages but will remain open until it is upgraded if it ever does so.

[webke]

Cycloneye,
When does DMAX kick in.

[Brent]

Ugh! I am sick of this storm. TS but barely missing a closed circulation(just BARELY, I think it's debatable and it is rather close to land). I hate these type storms...

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye,
When does DMAX kick in.

In the overnight hours.

[webke]

Thanks,
I never was really sure.

[Coredesat]

Well, there's a ULL just to the left of it. That's probably going to cause some weirded-out measurements.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its going to get upgraded at 5am if recon finds the requirements, but at 11am most likely. I think it will like be initialized at 45-60mph tomorrow at that time, reaching hurricane tomorrow night. I think it will organize fairly quickly tonight, but a hinderance maybe the ULL to the west

[hurricanedude]

so why is the NHC saying conditions are more and more favorable if its obvious the ULL is bugging it?

[sunnyday]

Much ado about nothing.

[AJC3]

so why is the NHC saying conditions are more and more favorable if its obvious the ULL is bugging it?

Because... 1) the shear isn't as horrifically bad as was a couple days ago, and 2) convective development is not being inhibited nearly as much as it was earlier by mean layer dry air.

[Wthrman13]

so why is the NHC saying conditions are more and more favorable if its obvious the ULL is bugging it?

The relative position of the UL low is actually much more favorable today than on previous days. Now, divergence east of it is overspreading the low-level circulation and simultaneously lessening the shear. Hence, the increase in convection today all around the circulation. In short, upper-level conditions are improving, thanks in part to the UL low position relative to the surface low.

[hurricanedude]

thanks....very well put...and understandable...

[webke]

so why is the NHC saying conditions are more and more favorable if its obvious the ULL is bugging it?

The relative position of the UL low is actually much more favorable today than on previous days. Now, divergence east of it is overspreading the low-level circulation and simultaneously lessening the shear. Hence, the increase in convection today all around the circulation. In short, upper-level conditions are improving, thanks in part to the UL low position relative to the surface low.

So does this mean we may se it strengthen over night

[tolakram]

I think it should, especially after we get away from diurnal min (which is around sunset). I think shear is again the main factor to look out for.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Shortwave doesn't look too bad. Some convection dying out but new stuff starting near the apparent center.

[webke]

I think it should, especially after we get away from diurnal min (which is around sunset). I think shear is again the main factor to look out for.

Thanks for the response.

['CaneFreak]

Wxman57....please check your pms....thanks...sorry for wasting space for this...

[hurricanedude]

the man gets bomb-barted with PMS....give him time.....he is doing the best he can

[chadtm80]

the man gets bomb-barted with PMS....give him time.....he is doing the best he can

Then maybe we should send the poor guy some Midol

[hurricanedude]

lol...I was thinking a Pamprin...