Tropical Storm Barry

[brunota2003]

I dont know if they were down to operational altitude yet when they measured that...I'm not sure what the conversion rate will be today.

[cycloneye]

Thunder44,you are right.

[Thunder44]

42kts was taken when the plane just began to descend. Highest FL wind is just in is 38kts. They are flying at around 300m which is 80% reduction.

We know this is already producing sustained winds of at least 25kts mph from surface obs. The magic FL number for TS force at the surface winds is about 43kts.

I got out this afternoon. Later.

[tgenius]

I'll note it looks like the majority of the first chunk of rain associated with 92L will be past Miami in a few hours (at least off radar)

[windstorm99]

I'll note it looks like the majority of the first chunk of rain associated with 92L will be past Miami in a few hours (at least off radar)

Yea but look at all the deep reds to the south of cuba that mess will eventually clip south florida later tonight.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 011803
AF307 01BBA INVEST HDOB 13 KNHC
1754 2413N 08553W 00305 5066 028 034 192 192 036 00251 0000000000
1754. 2413N 08552W 00306 5068 025 036 192 192 037 00250 0000000000
1755 2413N 08550W 00304 5069 033 036 194 194 038 00247 0000000000
1755. 2413N 08549W 00305 5071 038 037 194 194 038 00247 0000000000
1756 2413N 08547W 00304 5071 045 037 196 196 039 00245 0000000000
1756. 2413N 08546W 00306 5073 050 035 192 633 037 00245 0000000100
1757 2413N 08544W 00305 5074 053 033 196 751 034 00243 0000000100
1757. 2413N 08543W 00305 5075 069 035 212 643 038 00242 0000000100
1758 2413N 08542W 00305 5073 081 037 218 751 039 00244 0000000100
1758. 2413N 08540W 00305 5072 088 036 220 751 037 00244 0000000100
1759 2413N 08539W 00306 5074 086 039 222 751 039 00245 0000000100
1759. 2413N 08538W 00302 5074 086 041 224 751 042 00240 0000000100
1800 2413N 08536W 00307 5074 088 040 220 751 041 00245 0000000100
1800. 2413N 08535W 00305 5074 089 040 220 751 041 00243 0000000100
1801 2413N 08534W 00305 5074 090 040 222 751 041 00243 0000000100
1801. 2413N 08532W 00304 5074 090 040 224 751 041 00243 0000000100
1802 2413N 08531W 00305 5074 092 040 220 751 041 00243 0000000100
1802. 2413N 08530W 00305 5073 095 040 226 537 040 00244 0000000100
1803 2413N 08528W 00305 5073 096 040 226 751 040 00244 0000000100
1803. 2413N 08527W 00305 5072 094 038 224 751 039 00246 0000000100

42kts at operational altitud.

[x-y-no]

Some decent SW winds ... lets see if they find any true west winds.

[cycloneye]

They clocked 42kts as the higest so far at operational altitud.Now the crew is trying to find a west wind and close the circulation.

[CrazyC83]

Southwest wind found, so it is at least 80% closed, but can they find the final piece to the puzzle? Do we have TD2/Barry?

[JonathanBelles]

wasnt there a recon decoder program last year?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011807
97779 18050 60242 85300 03100 11032 23//8 /0004
41025
RMK AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 06


1004 mbs.

[x-y-no]

I'll note it looks like the majority of the first chunk of rain associated with 92L will be past Miami in a few hours (at least off radar)

Yea but look at all the deep reds to the south of cuba that mess will eventually clip south florida later tonight.

Yes, we'll be getting that entrained moisture through tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 011813
AF307 01BBA INVEST HDOB 14 KNHC
1804 2413N 08526W 00305 5071 098 036 220 751 036 00247 0000000100
1804. 2413N 08524W 00305 5071 103 035 224 751 035 00246 0000000100
1805 2413N 08523W 00305 5069 107 034 226 751 034 00248 0000000100
1805. 2413N 08521W 00305 5069 110 033 228 751 033 00248 0000000100
1806 2413N 08520W 00304 5069 113 031 228 751 033 00248 0000000100
1806. 2413N 08519W 00306 5067 117 032 224 751 033 00252 0000000100
1807 2413N 08517W 00304 5067 115 032 218 751 034 00250 0000000100
1807. 2413N 08516W 00305 5067 113 035 218 751 037 00250 0000000100
1808 2413N 08514W 00305 5066 115 036 210 751 038 00251 0000000100
1808. 2413N 08513W 00305 5067 117 036 204 751 037 00251 0000000100
1809 2413N 08511W 00303 5065 118 039 212 751 039 00250 0000000100
1809. 2413N 08510W 00306 5065 117 040 226 751 041 00254 0000000100
1810 2413N 08509W 00305 5065 118 039 228 751 039 00253 0000000100
1810. 2413N 08507W 00304 5064 117 039 230 751 040 00252 0000000100
1811 2413N 08506W 00306 5063 118 038 228 751 039 00254 0000000100
1811. 2413N 08505W 00304 5063 116 040 230 751 041 00254 0000000100
1812 2413N 08503W 00306 5062 116 039 228 751 039 00256 0000000100
1812. 2413N 08502W 00305 5061 119 039 230 751 040 00255 0000000100
1813 2413N 08500W 00305 5061 118 039 230 751 040 00256 0000000100
1813. 2413N 08459W 00304 5060 119 038 230 751 039 00256 0000000100


Still the highest winds so far is 42kts.

[sevenleft]

The only thing that really matters right now is the temperature profile.

[tgenius]

So that means my going to the gym tonight will be a soggy one!

What's the conversion, 80 percent?

[Aric Dunn]

Southwest wind found, so it is at least 80% closed, but can they find the final piece to the puzzle? Do we have TD2/Barry?

they are going to sample more... we need vortex messsage....

temps and dew points look good... its probably at least sub trop.. 72 degrees is about for a TC though ..

[Chacor]

80% of 42 kt might just be enough for NHC to classify [sub]tropical storm if they find a closed circulation (33.6 kt)...

[windstorm99]

If your plans include going to the gym later this evening your going to get wet as the rain will proabably pick up across miami later.

[cycloneye]

UZNT13 KNHC 011757
XXAA 51185 99251 70868 08156 99011 23217 ///// 00093 22415 06532
92768 18202 08031 85492 15402 07518 70121 08036 36016 50583 05308
14529 88999 77999
31313 09608 81732
51515 10190 40755
61616 AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2510N08679W 1740 LST WND 013 MBL WND 07033 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 08514 009452 WL150 06532 088 =
XXBB 51188 99251 70868 08156 00011 23217 11946 19004 22850 15402
33703 08435 44528 03107 55467 077// 66417 135//
21212 00011 ///// 11009 07032 22932 08033 33870 09521 44850 07518
55751 02020 66714 02512 77699 36017 88663 34516 99654 33510 11636
27010 22619 22515 33592 19007 44566 15011 55531 14028 66452 15031
77417 17037
31313 09608 81732
51515 10190 40755
61616 AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2510N08679W 1740 LST WND 013 MBL WND 07033 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 08514 009452 WL150 06532 088 =


Another dropsonde observation.

[Aric Dunn]

latest recco

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 07
Time: 1819Z
Latitude: 24.2°N
Longitude: 84.7°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: ESE (120°) @ 43 mph
Temperature: 72°F
Dewpoint: N/A°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1005 mb
Surface Wind: SE (120°) @ 40 mph
Remarks: None