Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[cycloneye]

How big is this storm?

It's very big in area that it covers.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 AM GUAM LST SUN JUL 8 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
FARAULEP IN YAP STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AS OF 8 AM GUAM LST...A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND
ULITHI IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN
YAP STATE.

AT 7 AM GUAM LST..2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
220 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOROL
495 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
555 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
655 MILES EAST OF NGULU
510 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 04W
VERY CLOSE TO FARAULEP TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT GUAM LST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 7 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 6.4 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 146.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[Andrew92]

Man-yi is the next name in the EPAC if this indeed is a storm as indicated.

Bad joke: Is "yi" Chinese for law?

-Andrew92

[WindRunner]

Looks like a good setup for a Korea or Japan hit on the JTWC track . . . but I can't say that I agree with such a track. The ridge over the CPAC really isn't building that far west, hence the GFS track into China via Taiwan is relatively unlikely . . . especially with the beeline it puts it on to get it there. Never does the storm go sub 1003, though that may be a product of the initialization, however, which is around 1007mb. Compare it to the 12z NRL pressure of 1000mb (per ATCF-it's quite odd that the NRL page itself isn't updating?), and you can a slight problem. Regardless, a stronger system would probably drive further northward and through the little weak bit of ridging that exists to the north.

[WindRunner]

The NOGAPS model seems to handle it much better, though the Canadian is all over the JTWC track.

NOGAPS at 144hrs:


CMC at 120hrs (BTW I have no clue what the central pressure is on that):

[WindRunner]

WWJP25 RJTD 071800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 06.0N 148.2E WESTSOUTHWEST OF TRUKS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 08.5N 145.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
GALE WARNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
35N 145E 42N 162E 36N 162E 29N 145E 35N 145E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA NORTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 143E
51N 157E 60N 165E 60N 180E 33N 180E 34N 170E 34N 160E 32N 150E 32N
140E 35N 140E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 33N 139E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 36N 149E ENE 25 KT.
LOW 996 HPA AT 46N 156E NE 10 KT.
LOW 998 HPA AT 40N 158E ENE 30 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 121E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 58N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 27N 177E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 107E TO 34N 118E 34N 122E 31N 130E 31N 134E
33N 139E 33N 145E 36N 149E 37N 155E 40N 158E 43N 171E 38N 180E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

JMA even calling for some good-paced strengthening on this one. We should see Man-yi within 24 hours, and probably less than that . . .

[Chacor]

849
WTPQ20 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 06.3N 147.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 09.0N 144.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 080102
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM GUAM LST SUN JUL 8 2007

..TROPICAL STORM 04W MOVING NORTHWEST...

TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATAWAL AND WOLEAI IN
YAP STATE.

AT 10 AM GUAM LST..0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SATAWAL
195 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
195 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
440 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOROL
470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
615 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
635 MILES EAST OF NGULU
490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM
04W VERY CLOSE TO FARAULEP TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT GUAM LST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 6.6 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 146.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
5 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[Chacor]

WTPQ30 RJTD 080000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 06.3N 147.5E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[Coredesat]

JMA backing off a bit:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 06.9N 146.6E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 080600 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE.
TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[Coredesat]

WTPQ31 PGUM 080659
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 8 2007

..TROPICAL STORM 04W CONTINUES NORTHWEST TOWARD FARAULEP...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

AT 4 PM GUAM LST..0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 80 MILES WEST OF SATAWAL
135 MILES EAST OF WOLEAI
120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
380 MILES EAST OF SOROL
400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
575 MILES EAST OF NGULU
420 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH MONDAY. THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 04W VERY
CLOSE TO FARAULEP TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT GUAM LST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT.

REPEATING THE 4 PM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 7.5 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 145.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT
11 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[Chacor]

Still a TD, amazingly:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 07.1N 146.2E POOR
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 10.3N 142.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT

WTPQ31 PGUM 080930
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
730 PM GUAM LST SUN JUL 8 2007

..TROPICAL STORM 04W CONTINUES NORTHWEST TOWARD FARAULEP...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.

AT 7 PM GUAM LST..0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
115 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
365 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
520 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
550 MILES EAST OF NGULU
395 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS TRACK WOULD TAKE TROPICAL STORM 04W VERY CLOSE TO FARAULEP
TONIGHT JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT GUAM LST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 7 PM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 7.8 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 145.5 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 2 AM GUAM LST MONDAY.

$$

STANKO

[whereverwx]

The rainbands are now visible on Guam (GUA) radar.

(Composite Elevation Angle)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 005
WTPN31 PGTW 081500
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 8.1N 145.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 145.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 9.5N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 10.9N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.3N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.8N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.8N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.8N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.5N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 144.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 081540
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 04W ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
200 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 9 2007

..TROPICAL STORM 04W ALMOST RIGHT OVER FARAULEP...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR WOLEAI IS CANCELED AS OF 2 AM GUAM LST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 1 AM GUAM LST..1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 04W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
90 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOLEAI
305 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
465 MILES EAST OF YAP
500 MILES EAST OF NGULU
350 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM 04W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM 04W WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
FARAULEP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 04W IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 8.4 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 144.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 8 AM GUAM LST.

$$

STANKO

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
500 AM GUAM LST MON JUL 9 2007

...TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI PASSING JUST SOUTH OF FARAULEP...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP STATE.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 4 AM GUAM LST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 40 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FARAULEP
70 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
255 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
410 MILES EAST OF YAP
445 MILES EAST OF NGULU
350 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 4 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 8.4 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 144.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 11 AM GUAM LST.

$$

STANKO



Now it has a name (MAN-YI).

[RattleMan]

949
WTPQ20 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0704 MAN-YI (0704) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 07.5N 144.3E POOR
MOVE WSW 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 09.8N 139.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 101800UTC 12.4N 135.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 111800UTC 16.4N 130.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Coredesat]

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 8.4N 144.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.4N 144.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 9.9N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 11.2N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.6N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.0N 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 17.0N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.5N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 8.8N 143.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//

[windstorm99]

Wow the envelope that this system covers is pretty impressive...Looks like a monster in the making.



Very impressive infrared loop

[wxmann_91]

I don't know if this will get as strong as JT's advertising. It's just too big and there's competing convection everywhere. On the flip side though, the outflow pattern's nearly perfect, thermodynamics look good, and there's good upper diffluence and low level convergence. We'll see what happens.