Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[MWatkins]

Euro doesn't even see it in 72 hours (that I can tell anyway)...

In fact the Euro keeps the basin cyclone free for the entire run...

MW

[windstorm99]

The GFDL and EURO models both at one time dropped dean and we saw how that turned out.

[flwxwatcher]

The GFDL and EURO models both at one time dropped dean and we saw how that turned out.

The 12Z EURO doesn't develope 94L but like you pointed out Windstorm the EURO had problems initializing Dean in the early stages.

[Meso]

36 Hours out

[cycloneye]

36 hours

GFS hangs on a low pressure at 36 hours,distint from the 12z run when it had nothing.How long the low will be there?,we will find out as the 18z run rolls in.

[Derek Ortt]

just because a model did poorly with a previous storm does not mean anything for this storm, unless there was something glaringly wrong with the result (like a dynamically impossible solution)

[cycloneye]

54 hours

Lost the low.

[cycloneye]

The middle to long range run of the 18z GFS will be posted in the Long Range Runs thread in Talking Tropics Forum.

[cycloneye]

455
WHXX04 KWBC 282319
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.0 41.4 270./18.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 0 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

18z GFDL still dissipates 94L.

[Derek Ortt]

The GFDL is not exactly dissipating the system, Luis... there is no system in the initialization as there is nothing in the GFS

[cycloneye]

The GFDL is not exactly dissipating the system, Luis... there is no system in the initialization as there is nothing in the GFS

Thanks for the clarification.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS Loop at 108 hours

The 00z GFS does not show any low related to 94L in 108 hours.The rest of this 00z GFS run will be posted in the long range models thread in Talking Tropics forum.

[Meso]

The 00z NOGAPS now developing it.


GFS now closing off the low again,once again. How long will it last


GFDL fluctuates between intensity as it tracks WNW

[kranki]

I am new to this (ie ignorant) of a lot of this. What is the significance of estimating the winds at 35m vs sea-level? Sorry if this is off topic, but I am trying to understand the latest GFDL estimates.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, still nothing from the ole GFS at 12Z.

Oh, and nice outflow boundaries too. This thing is done, that is my opinion.

[windstorm99]

Well, still nothing from the ole GFS at 12Z.

Oh, and nice outflow boundaries too. This thing is done, that is my opinion.

Look behind 94L mark....Thats the one that might go ahead and develope.Adrian

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, it is quite large. Nice "S" shape too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea MW callthis one this morn the "one" to bet on..I agree..The "S" is there

[Meso]

Even the CMC has backed off on development on the 12z

[cycloneye]

160
WHXX04 KWBC 301725
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 30

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 51.2 275./12.0
6 12.1 52.6 308./16.4
12 12.4 54.5 280./18.9
18 12.8 56.4 281./19.5
24 13.3 58.3 284./18.8
30 13.6 60.1 280./17.5
36 13.8 62.2 275./20.6
42 14.4 63.9 289./18.2
48 14.6 65.6 278./16.0
54 15.5 67.7 291./21.7
60 15.7 69.6 278./18.3
66 15.7 71.2 268./16.0
72 15.9 73.1 278./18.1
78 16.3 74.9 280./18.1
84 16.5 76.4 279./14.8
90 16.6 78.1 274./15.7
96 16.9 79.5 279./13.9
102 17.2 80.9 284./13.4
108 17.3 82.2 275./12.8
114 17.4 83.4 276./11.7
120 17.5 84.4 274./ 9.4
126 17.8 85.3 287./ 8.9



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt

12z GFDL goes to Yucatan.