Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[jhamps10]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

sorry folks bout the link problems.

anyway it takes it although weak, to the Gulfport/Biloxi area

[cycloneye]

986
WHXX01 KWBC 040042
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0042 UTC TUE SEP 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070904 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 0000 070904 1200 070905 0000 070905 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.0N 77.5W 29.7N 77.3W 29.3N 77.5W 29.0N 78.2W
BAMD 30.0N 77.5W 29.1N 76.6W 28.7N 75.0W 29.1N 73.6W
BAMM 30.0N 77.5W 29.5N 77.0W 29.0N 76.4W 28.8N 76.5W
LBAR 30.0N 77.5W 29.6N 76.5W 29.7N 75.7W 30.3N 74.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 0000 070907 0000 070908 0000 070909 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 79.4W 29.4N 83.7W 31.5N 87.0W 33.2N 88.7W
BAMD 29.6N 72.7W 29.2N 73.3W 29.0N 75.6W 29.6N 78.1W
BAMM 28.7N 77.0W 28.2N 79.6W 28.3N 82.2W 28.5N 84.2W
LBAR 31.4N 74.0W 33.4N 70.5W 35.2N 64.9W 36.4N 60.8W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 56KTS 55KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.0N LONCUR = 77.5W DIRCUR = 110DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 104DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 80.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$



Tony,BAMM goes to where you are.

[jhamps10]

ok we got FSU, BAMM, and UKMET all three indicating a possible Florida threat, and the GFS, HWRF are either a fish, or a remake of hurricane bob. Here's my thoughts on this,

The below post is only the opinion of the poster, and not Storm2k or the national hurricane center.

We could see some wierd tracks on this, think of Jeanne with the loop, or Ophelia even, but everyone from Houston all across the Gulf, and the ENTIRE east coast including all of florida needs to pay attention to this, it's over the gulf stream right now, so it could fire up pretty quickly, now no where near as fast as Felix has, but we could see it develop quick after it starts. I don't expect to see major development till wed at the earliest, and that for one leads me to more of a east coast threat or a fish, but as I noted we have 3 different models showing a Florida hit, and not near Jacksonville, so I honestly won't make a prediction here, but everyone needs on guard.

[wzrgirl1]

anyone have any links as to what the upper air pattern will be like this week....i know someone mentioned a pretty strong trough later in the week but then also mentioned the high building back west....what's the scoop?

[destruction92]

When people say "East Coast" why do they exclude Florida? Florida has an "East Coast" bordering the Atlantic Ocean.

When people say "Gulf Coast" why do they exclude Florida? Florida has a west coast bordering the Gulf of Mexico.

[jhamps10]

When people say "East Coast" why do they exclude Florida? Florida has an "East Coast" bordering the Atlantic Ocean.

When people say "Gulf Coast" why do they exclude Florida? Florida has a west coast bordering the Gulf of Mexico.

I usually seprate the two, but in this case in my post I am including both coasts of florida, but lets not take this too far off track of the models please.

[destruction92]

Dr. Lyons said at 8:50 that 99L would head towards Bermuda and then go to the east coast of Florida.

[wzrgirl1]

Dr. Lyons said at 8:50 that 99L would head towards Bermuda and then go to the east coast of Florida.

bold of him this early on...ok back to the models now

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi agree's with Steve Lyons somewhat. He is not saying Bermuda, but he is saying that he thinks 99L will move east and then turn around and head toward FL or the SE U.S.

[windstorm99]

[destruction92]

Joe Bastardi agree's with Steve Lyons somewhat. He is not saying Bermuda, but he is saying that he thinks 99L will move east and then turn around and head toward FL or the SE U.S.

Isn't Florida part of the "SE U.S."? Sorry, but I can't help but notice people excluding Florida from the "Southeast", "East Coast", and "Gulf Coast".

These models really can't be trusted yet until 99L develops and is initialized accurately.

[LJR]

I used to hear the Gulfcoast of Fla, referred to as the "Gulfcoast" now all I hear is either The "Panhandle of Florida" (includes Pensacola) or "Northwest Fla."

[Vortex]

The 9/4 00Z Nam rolling in...

Here's the loop...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


99 moves SSE/S then SW to a position east of S/Central Florida..Strong Ridging to the north at end of run. Storm also stronger thru the end of run...This may get very interesting for Florida/E.US

[Recurve]

To a non-expert eye, caught under a ridge that could point it downward toward SFLa?

[LarryWx]

Here are some modeled longitudes as of 12Z Tue 9/4:

1) 12Z MON ECMWF: 77.5 W
2) 12Z MON GEM: 77.0 W
3) 12Z MON NOGAPS: 77.0 W
4) 12Z MON UKMET: 76.5 W
5) 0Z TUE NOGAPS: 76.5 W
6) 0Z TUE GEM: 76.0 W
7) 0Z UKMET: 76.0 W
8) 6Z GFS: 76.0 W
9) 0Z TUE GFS: 75.5 W
10) 18Z MON GFDL 75.5 W
11) 12Z MON GFS: 75.0 W
12) 18Z MON GFS: 75.0 W
13) 0Z TUE GFDL: 75.0 W

The low was initialized at 77.5 W as of the 0Z 9/4 tropical model runs. This seems to be near the current location based on my look at satellite photos. My point is that assuming some continued easterly component of motion between now and 12Z Tue, my feeling is that the 12Z Mon ECMWF/GEM/NOGAPS will very likely and the 12Z Mon UKMET/0Z NOGAPS will quite possibly verify too far west as of 12Z Tue. This would seem to give an early advantage to the further east last three GFS runs, which would appear to lessen the risk to the SE coast below the NC Outer banks at least for now.

Anyone else have any comments on this issue?

[hurricanetrack]

Well, the 00Z GFS misses all land as it skirts the system just offshore of the entire East Coast from Hatteras north. Lends credence to the work you put in there. Very nice analysis.

[Thunder44]

Well, this is going to be interesting to forecast. The 0z runs GFS and GFDL keep this system offshore, with maybe a close pass to New England:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The HWRF has direct hit on Long Island and New England as miminal hurricane or strong TS:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

While the runs ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, NOGAPS, MM5 have this hitting somewhere on the SE coast before moving NNE:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0zA/cmcloop.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation

[Meso]

Wow.. Never seen the NAM deepen a system that much

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 041119
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 29.6 76.6 115./ 7.0
6 29.3 75.8 108./ 7.3
12 29.2 74.4 95./12.3
18 29.6 72.8 74./14.7
24 30.1 71.7 66./ 9.9
30 31.0 70.7 47./12.7
36 31.6 70.2 42./ 7.1
42 31.6 69.7 86./ 4.4
48 31.7 69.5 67./ 2.0
54 31.7 69.1 90./ 3.7
60 31.7 68.9 85./ .9
66 31.6 69.0 196./ .7
72 31.6 69.4 262./ 4.1
78 31.6 69.6 277./ 1.5
84 32.0 69.9 320./ 4.9
90 32.4 70.4 309./ 5.9
96 33.1 71.0 318./ 8.2
102 33.6 71.8 305./ 8.8
108 34.3 72.2 333./ 7.0
114 35.1 72.4 348./ 8.3
120 36.0 72.3 1./ 8.8
126 36.8 71.9 29./ 9.3


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt
6z GFDL

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The 06z GFDL and HWRF graphics.

This looks to be the closest thing to a U.S hurricane hit so far this year if this thing gets going.