Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Recon Discussion

[cycloneye]

They are decending to operational altitud.

[JonathanBelles]

Whats the reduction and how do you know (so I can learn how to figure it my self)

[cycloneye]

Whats the reduction and how do you know (so I can learn how to figure it my self)

5th line from left to right.Reduction seems 80%.

940
URNT15 KNHC 051735
AF302 01GGA INVEST HDOB 20 20070905
172500 3002N 07321W 9762 00313 0116 +235 +232 029021 021 026 000 00
172530 3002N 07320W 9764 00309 9990 +235 +999 029020 021 026 000 01
172600 3002N 07318W 9767 00308 9990 +235 +999 026020 021 026 000 01
172630 3002N 07316W 9768 00304 9990 +234 +999 027020 021 025 000 01
172700 3002N 07315W 9771 00302 9990 +235 +999 028021 021 024 000 01
172730 3001N 07313W 9768 00304 0113 +233 +216 029021 021 027 000 00
172800 3001N 07311W 9772 00299 0112 +232 +219 030020 021 028 000 00
172830 3001N 07310W 9771 00299 0111 +234 +214 029020 020 029 000 00
172900 3001N 07308W 9773 00297 0111 +234 +216 030020 021 029 000 00
172930 3001N 07306W 9771 00300 0112 +233 +218 028020 020 028 000 00
173000 3001N 07304W 9769 00305 0115 +233 +217 029020 021 029 000 00
173030 3000N 07303W 9768 00306 0115 +233 +218 029019 020 028 000 00
173100 3000N 07301W 9770 00303 0114 +232 +219 029018 019 027 000 00
173130 3000N 07259W 9771 00301 0114 +232 +221 030017 017 027 000 00
173200 3000N 07258W 9770 00303 0114 +230 +220 030016 017 027 000 00
173230 3000N 07256W 9769 00303 0113 +230 +221 028016 016 027 000 00
173300 3000N 07254W 9771 00302 0114 +231 +214 029015 016 026 000 00
173330 2959N 07252W 9771 00301 0114 +230 +218 033014 015 027 000 00
173400 2959N 07251W 9762 00311 0114 +230 +219 027014 015 026 000 00
173430 2959N 07249W 9771 00301 0113 +234 +212 024013 014 025 000 00

[Chacor]

NHC says reduction is .85 for 1,000 ft INVEST flights.

[Lowpressure]

I am not used to seeing windspeeds without a 1 in front of them lately! Only 21 kts not 121 kts

[chris_fit]

Whats the reduction and how do you know (so I can learn how to figure it my self)

5th line from left to right.Reduction seems 80%.

940
URNT15 KNHC 051735
AF302 01GGA INVEST HDOB 20 20070905
172500 3002N 07321W 9762 00313 0116 +235 +232 029021 021 026 000 00

You mean from right to left? See the Bold Above. The underlined part is the flight level wind. The un-underlined part is the direction of the wind.

EDIT: NM, he was looking for the reduction not the actual wind... oops

[cycloneye]

I thought the question from fact was about how low they are flying.

[wxman57]

I doubt that the recon will tell us anything we don't already know in this case. Yes, there's an LLC, we can see that pretty clearly. Winds are probably in the 25-30 kt range east of the center, though likely only 15 kts or so west of the center. As to whether to upgrade it or not, the NHC takes a lot of factors into consideration. One of those factors is the threat to any land areas. They might not upgrade 99L if it was out in the eastern Atlantic. But I'm sure they're aware what the models are forecasting (potential serious threat to east U.S. Coast in 3 days) and they'll probably take that into consideration when deciding to call it TD 7 or wait for shear to diminish.

[JonathanBelles]

I thought the question from fact was about how low they are flying.

Nope, I wanted the reduction.

[CrazyC83]

So far all NNE winds for the most part. But they haven't hit the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The surface wind thing, the 3 one to the left side shows mid to upper 20 knot winds...But less for flight level. Only 21 knots has been found at flight level.

[CrazyC83]

1006mb pressure, 27kt FL and 34kt SFMR winds. Still no closed circulation found yet though...

[CrazyC83]

Closed circulation found near 29.3°N 70.3°W it appears. Looks like TD7 if trends continue - pressure 1005mb, winds 30 kt I would think.

[chadtm80]

there was no doubt it was a closed circualtion

[CrazyC83]

there was no doubt it was a closed circualtion

I agree, QuikSCAT showed one this morning. I think advisories at 5 pm for TD7 (or maybe TS Gabrielle if FL winds are around 40 or higher in later passes).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Surface wind thing is at 34 knots max. Felix was upgraded to cat5 its first time based on this....

[CrazyC83]

Surface wind thing is at 34 knots max. Felix was upgraded to cat5 its first time based on this....

That's true, so it may be TS Gabrielle immediately if anything higher is found.

[x-y-no]

Well, it's warm core (if only weakly so) ...

Between 22.5 and 23 degrees outside, 24 degrees in the core.

[CrazyC83]

Well, it's warm core (if only weakly so) ...

Between 22.5 and 23 degrees outside, 24 degrees in the core.

What is considered a "tropical" or "subtropical" core?

[x-y-no]

Well, it's warm core (if only weakly so) ...

Between 22.5 and 23 degrees outside, 24 degrees in the core.

What is considered a "tropical" or "subtropical" core?

That's one of those sort of ill-defined things ...

I'd say that since this is warm core and it appears to have detached from the trough, it's more tropical than subtropical (and the trend is towards purely tropical).