Invest 90L SE GOM: Discussions & Images

[hurricanedude]

and i put 0% faith in models right now..lol

[chadtm80]

well that is the direction it would head..

Also models have been doing pretty dang good this season

[srainhoutx]

Don't forget that we just watched Gabrielle take a week to somewhat pull it together. 90L will be convection loaded to the E and S for a while to come with effect of ULL just E of FL and pinching of ridge to the N. Persistence is the key in my humble opinion.

[njweather]

CMC is made to satisfy panic-prone people


Wind Shear map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Shear has decreased steadily for the past few hours (relative to the time of the shear map).

[Bane]

i was expecting the wave in the eatern atlantic as well. wow.

[shannon]

I don't get it. (If they declared it an invest because its proximety to land. ) In the direction the models have it, shows a good distance to land.

[canetracker]

Conditions slowly become favorable during the beginning of the week:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
However, we also have a trough of low pressure that is moving in:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
IMO, chances of development all come down to timing.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB has hyped it for about 3 days, but the wave East of the Lesser Antilles, and the monster that looks to be as big as Alaska out near 30ºW look like far more likely candidates.



Well, my yard in Houston needs the rain


/Big time sarc.

[ROCK]

cant wait for the GFDL to run on this mess.....all the globals have been showing either weakness or a closed low for some time now. The 12z CMC was alittle bullish in intensity but when is it not....


Srrain- I was thinking more south than 28N for consolidation more towards the channel.....we will see...


Ed- I have to mow my soggy yard twice a week...teach me to over fertilize....

[srainhoutx]

Conditions slowly become favorable during the beginning of the week:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
However, we also have a trough of low pressure that is moving in:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
IMO, chances of development all come down to timing.

I not sure the trough will dig as far S as Gulf Coast just yet. Still a bit early for a strong frontal passage as model have suggested in my humble opinion...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

[ROCK]

Conditions slowly become favorable during the beginning of the week:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
However, we also have a trough of low pressure that is moving in:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
IMO, chances of development all come down to timing.

I not sure the trough will dig as far S as Gulf Coast just yet. Still a bit early for a strong frontal passage as model have suggested in my humble opinion...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/satpix ... v_loop.php

yep, I don't think it will even be close. 0Z NAM (I know its the NAM) bring a 1008 Low into the mid-TX at 84hrs.....again more sniffing...

[jasons2k]

I'll be totally honest - I have no clue what to make of 90L yet. A few days ago, I thought anything that would develop had a good shot of moving this way. Then with the front dropping down I was pretty confident anything that formed may drift west, but then get swept NE before it hit the TX coast - similar to what the NWS-NOLA was thinking. Now I'm not so sure. Models should be interesting tomorrow, that's for certain. Until then, I don't know if anyone can make a real educated guess on where any potential system will go. As with all tropical systems, timing is everything, but especially so with this one. There are many possibilities on the table for 90L.

[srainhoutx]

cant wait for the GFDL to run on this mess.....all the globals have been showing either weakness or a closed low for some time now. The 12z CMC was alittle bullish in intensity but when is it not....


Srrain- I was thinking more south than 28N for consolidation more towards the channel.....we will see...


Ed- I have to mow my soggy yard twice a week...teach me to over fertilize....

Been mowing twice a week all summer lol. Should start to get folks attention tomorrow. Surface ridge is actually working with ULL to the E to get something going with 90L imho

[ROCK]

cant wait for the GFDL to run on this mess.....all the globals have been showing either weakness or a closed low for some time now. The 12z CMC was alittle bullish in intensity but when is it not....


Srrain- I was thinking more south than 28N for consolidation more towards the channel.....we will see...


Ed- I have to mow my soggy yard twice a week...teach me to over fertilize....

Been mowing twice a week all summer lol. Should start to get folks attention tomorrow. Surface ridge is actually working with ULL to the E to get something going with 90L imho

BTW- nice to see you on here and KHOU.....I am Paul on KHOU forum...yeah the ULL is enhancing the convection for sure.

[srainhoutx]

cant wait for the GFDL to run on this mess.....all the globals have been showing either weakness or a closed low for some time now. The 12z CMC was alittle bullish in intensity but when is it not....




Srrain- I was thinking more south than 28N for consolidation more towards the channel.....we will see...


Ed- I have to mow my soggy yard twice a week...teach me to over fertilize....

Been mowing twice a week all summer lol. Should start to get folks attention tomorrow. Surface ridge is actually working with ULL to the E to get something going with 90L imho

BTW- nice to see you on here and KHOU.....I am Paul on KHOU forum...yeah the ULL is enhancing the convection for sure.

Thanks Paul. Lot of dry air to the N, but thats about to change in the next 24-48 hours in my humble opinion..

Steve

[fasterdisaster]

This looks like absolute crap and there's little hope of it getting any better lol.

NEXT!

Frankly I'm just watching the thing north of the Leewards and the cluster that has survived the ITCZ longer than most waves this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

hmm, seems like lots of new developments with this system tonight. It will be very interesting to watch this tomorrow and early next week for possible development. Anything that forms looks like it might have Texas or Louisiana's name on it...so I will be monitoring it very closely.

[hriverajr]

I don't know faster disaster... it will have to be watched as i said in a previous post i think texas or lousiana in that order could be affected by this system if it develops... it does seem to have some cyclonic turning tonight at least in the mid levels.


Hector

[fasterdisaster]

I don't know faster disaster... it will have to be watched as i said in a previous post i think texas or lousiana in that order could be affected by this system if it develops... it does seem to have some cyclonic turning tonight at least in the mid levels.


Hector

Well I guess stranger things have happened, but the conditions are extremely hostile. And also lol I kind of this doesn't become a wimpy displaced pathetic TS which is all it has time for even if it does develop just because it would be a waste of a name and would soil the already feeble TS:Hurricane ratio of this season.

[Ptarmigan]

Color me not surprised that this got an invest. This one is closer to land than out in the Atlantic with those waves. Yes, I know they have a chance of developing. Computer models were unanimous with it.