Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[njweather]

I have a question...

The 00Z GFS (09/09) moves the large North-Atlantic low Northwest, and replaces it with a High Pressure system at around 60-84 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Wouldn't this development remove the pull Northwards?

[cycloneye]

KWBC 091849
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC SUN SEP 9 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070909 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070909 1800 070910 0600 070910 1800 070911 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 35.5W 9.8N 37.3W 9.9N 39.1W 10.0N 40.4W
BAMD 9.7N 35.5W 10.0N 37.7W 10.1N 40.1W 10.1N 42.4W
BAMM 9.7N 35.5W 9.9N 37.4W 10.1N 39.3W 10.1N 41.2W
LBAR 9.7N 35.5W 10.0N 38.3W 10.6N 41.6W 11.1N 44.9W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070911 1800 070912 1800 070913 1800 070914 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.2N 41.3W 11.4N 42.4W 13.7N 43.6W 16.5N 45.8W
BAMD 9.9N 44.4W 9.6N 48.6W 9.9N 52.1W 10.8N 55.3W
BAMM 10.2N 42.6W 10.6N 45.0W 11.3N 46.4W 11.8N 47.7W
LBAR 11.6N 48.1W 12.2N 53.7W 12.2N 57.4W 11.2N 59.1W
SHIP 48KTS 58KTS 63KTS 66KTS
DSHP 48KTS 58KTS 63KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 35.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 32.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 28.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ROCK]

westward ho....

[cycloneye]

Yes,no fish with this one.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[ROCK]

Yes,no fish with this one.

looks like a low runner ala Felix or more so Dean.....highly unlikely this pulls a MX or Nicar hit this time...someone will get nailed if this makes the carib....jmo

[windstorm99]

The invisible magnet pulls another one in.

[Meso]

[KWT]

One problem Meso...thats not 91L it shows, its probably the wave coming off Africa now, its 72hr postion is about 35W...about where 91L is already.

[flwxwatcher]

One problem Meso...thats not 91L it shows, its probably the wave coming off Africa now, its 72hr postion is about 35W...about where 91L is already.

You beat me to it. It does look like the EURO is developing the wave behind 91L.. One thing we have learned though is the Models struggle with Cyclogenesis . I have a feeling 91L will develop. Time will tell.

[Meso]

hah,yeah I have trouble with figuring out what the euro shows when :/ Due to the weird angle and interville

[ROCK]

One problem Meso...thats not 91L it shows, its probably the wave coming off Africa now, its 72hr postion is about 35W...about where 91L is already.

You beat me to it. It does look like the EURO is developing the wave behind 91L.. One thing we have learned though is the Models struggle with Cyclogenesis . I have a feeling 91L will develop. Time will tell.

yes it does but once it does developes its been pretty reliable in track....but it has to be intialized first.....

[flwxwatcher]

One problem Meso...thats not 91L it shows, its probably the wave coming off Africa now, its 72hr postion is about 35W...about where 91L is already.

You beat me to it. It does look like the EURO is developing the wave behind 91L.. One thing we have learned though is the Models struggle with Cyclogenesis . I have a feeling 91L will develop. Time will tell.

yes it does but once it does developes its been pretty reliable in track....but it has to be intialized first.....

Agreed and my comment about the Models was not just directed at the EURO . The GFS was late to the game developing Felix and never did have its intensity correct. Like you said, So far this year once a storm has been intialized the EURO has done well with the tracks overall.

[cycloneye]

54 hours

Lets see how this 18z GFS shows 91L.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes,no fish with this one.

looks like a low runner ala Felix or more so Dean.....highly unlikely this pulls a MX or Nicar hit this time...someone will get nailed if this makes the carib....jmo

I agree. IF this develops and gets into the caribbean, then I am willing to bet it will be the GOMs greatest threat so far this season. The trough late next week might be enough to get this to take on a more NW motion..something that Dean and Felix never did. I will be watching closely.

[cycloneye]

66 hours

Already goes fishing towards the ridge.

[srainhoutx]

westward ho....

Big wave and moving W. May be the largest system as far as geographical area affected this season. Doesn't seem to be a small system ala Dean/Felix in my humble opinion

[ROCK]

westward ho....

Big wave and moving W. May be the largest system as far as geographical area affected this season. Doesn't seem to be a small system ala Dean/Felix in my humble opinion

true...I was commenting on track wise...not size...this has a huge evelope more so then any other wave I have seen this year....

GFS takes it fishing it looks like in this run....

[Extremeweatherguy]

102 hrs..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

Strong high to the north: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 100110
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0110 UTC MON SEP 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070910 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070910 0000 070910 1200 070911 0000 070911 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 36.5W 10.3N 38.1W 10.6N 39.6W 10.7N 40.7W
BAMD 10.0N 36.5W 10.5N 38.6W 10.8N 40.6W 10.9N 42.5W
BAMM 10.0N 36.5W 10.4N 38.2W 10.7N 39.9W 10.9N 41.5W
LBAR 10.0N 36.5W 10.6N 39.2W 11.4N 42.1W 11.8N 45.1W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070912 0000 070913 0000 070914 0000 070915 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 41.5W 12.3N 43.1W 14.2N 44.9W 16.7N 47.6W
BAMD 11.1N 44.2W 11.5N 47.3W 12.0N 49.8W 12.5N 52.0W
BAMM 11.2N 42.7W 11.9N 44.8W 12.8N 46.3W 13.6N 48.0W
LBAR 12.3N 47.8W 12.7N 53.0W 12.9N 56.8W 11.5N 59.5W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 71KTS 74KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 71KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 36.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.7N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 31.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM