Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Trend today has been more of an eastward shift

[cycloneye]

Trend today has been more of an eastward shift

Including the EURO right?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone else find it odd that the GFDL and a few other models want to try to bring 93L north up the east coast of FL before crossing the state? That doesn't make much sense to me. It looks like 93L is currently tracking W or WSW..not north. Therefore, I think we can assume that if the initial motion from the models is incorrect, that the end location on the models is incorrect too. Hopefully we will see some better model runs tonight or tomorrow once the system becomes easier to focus on.

[Wx_Warrior]

Cyclon...just asked him and the answer was yes on your ques...

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone else find it odd that the GFDL and a few other models want to try to bring 93L north up the east coast of FL before crossing the state? That doesn't make much sense to me. It looks like 93L is currently tracking W or WSW..not north. Therefore, I think we can assume that if the initial motion from the models is incorrect, that the end location on the models is incorrect too. Hopefully we will see some better model runs tonight or tomorrow once the system becomes easier to focus on.

Actually, the GFDL motion seems possible to me... if you look at the water vapor, there is a ULL parked over FL... perhaps it thinks that a developing surface low would move N initially before moving more W across FL:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Trend today has been more of an eastward shift

Including the EURO right?

Yes the Euro went from Freeport to Sabine Pass in one run.

[Stratosphere747]

Gives some reasoning why the models are shifting....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
252 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MID/UPR RIDGE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A DRY/SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT
OVER SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AS A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT HUGS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PUSHES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA SUNDAY.

[z-bail]

i'm no expert but when i look at the miami radar offshore it appears it is definately drifting east right now.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 18 hours

[cycloneye]

18z GFS 200mb at 30 hours

30 kt shear in EGOM.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS 200mb at 42 hours

Still some 30 kt shear.Who wants to post the surface data?

[jhamps10]

18:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_018s.gif

30:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_030s.gif
42
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_042s.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know it is possible, but I really still do not believe we will see 93L jump north off the FL coast before it crosses the state. I could very well be wrong, but I think we will see a more westward crossing (may be slightly north or south of due west). This is JMO though.

[jhamps10]

cycloneye, I'll post surface info.


personally so far I have to agree with ya EWG, espically since it is moving more due west or just north of due west right now from what I've read. models are intilizing it is moving more WNW or NW. not right IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

jhamps10, on the higher resolution GFS graphics I actually see a due west motion between hour 30 and 42...not a NW motion:

hr 30 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

hr 42 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

[cycloneye]

18z GFS 200mb at 54 hours

Much less shear.

[Wx_Warrior]

Texas run...Not going to break thru ridge....

[jhamps10]

54, and now it's moving it more west, if not a bit wsw:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_054s.gif

[jhamps10]

jhamps10, on the higher resolution GFS graphics I actually see a due west motion between hour 30 and 42...not a NW motion:

ok EWG, I was posting the more corse images to make it easier for those on dial-up, but your right. I'll edit my post.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Remember early models can sometimes underestimate ridges-
i think Texas for 2nd arrival

over the next 48 hours it will be tropical storm force
gusts all over FL.

Tight pressure gradient indicates a building ridge.