Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 23/1630Z
D. 24.0N 91.0W
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 24/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 24/0500Z
D. 26.0N 93.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....BEGIN 3 HRLY FIXES 24/1500Z IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


On Sunday afternoon the first mission to 94L will depart at 12:30 PM EDT from Keesler Base.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It doesn't look the right shape to me. Hard to explain, but it looks too linear, not 'blobular' enough. In my unprofessional opinion, 60% chance tomorrows NOUS42 tasking will have language about scheduled flights being canx.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not any expert, but it doesn't have the right look. Too linear, not roundishly blobby.

I suspect just a surge of tropical moisture, I hope some makes it to Texas, we were on the drier side of Humberto, and didn't get any rain since the morning before landfall, and after about a 5 month hiatus, the sprinkler is being dragged out today after I mow.

[Brent]

Looks very disorganized to me, too linear and not focused. We'll see but right now I think a weaker system is more likely than a stronger one.

[sphelps8681]

GFS Model

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=048
48 hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=060
60 hr

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=072
72 hr

What kind of intensity are these models showing.

[dwg71]

I can see it being possible that we will see a sheared TS out of this before it finally makes landfall in Texas or SW Louisiana, but ATM I am not too worried about anything too strong or destructive. Will be interesting to monitor though..especially since the SHIPS models bring this up to 55-64 knots.

EWG you seem to say everything is TX/SWLA

This will not develop, imo.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 15:45 UTC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I may be misinterpreting the satellite picture, but it does seem that
some kind of circulation- blob is trying to form embedded in the
linear convection at 18 N and 86 W.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can see it being possible that we will see a sheared TS out of this before it finally makes landfall in Texas or SW Louisiana, but ATM I am not too worried about anything too strong or destructive. Will be interesting to monitor though..especially since the SHIPS models bring this up to 55-64 knots.

EWG you seem to say everything is TX/SWLA

This will not develop, imo.

well am I supposed to say it will hit FL or somewhere else when the models and mets are clearly saying TX/SWLA? That probably wouldn't make much sense. lol.

[sphelps8681]

From our Beaumont Pro Met Greg Boswick

I'm watching but have lots of work to do on the farm. Smile

This is the same system I was talking about yesterday and mentioned that I thought it had a chance to develop. In fact, this morning, it looks like a low level center is developing near 18.5 north and 86.0 west or just east of the southern Yucatan. Motion is to the northwest about 7 mph.

This system will likely not develop much in the next 24 hours as it will have to cross the land area of the Yucatan and should emerge into the southern Gulf Sunday night.

Notice on satellite images that the energy from this system is quite spread out all the way from the eastern Gulf to Honduras. This is actually a good thing and shows that the energy is not concentrated in one spot. One thing to look for will be if that situation changes and the activity becomes more consolidated around the Yucatan.

After entering the southern Gulf, it is likely that a northwest to north-northwest track will develop which will move this low towards the upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana coast Tuesday evening.

Some development appears likely to me once it is in the Gulf and I think that we should prepare for the possibility of a strong tropical storm or category one hurricane Tuesday evening.

Again, this is just a possibility not a certainty, but after Humberto, it would be wise to be prepared for a threat from this system.
_________________
Greg Bostwick
Chief Meteorologist
KFDM-TV

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Louisiana/Panhandle again to me:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

[beachbum_al]

I have one word! Not again! Let it go to TX/LA since they need the rain. I have to admit that the clouds looked pretty wild this morning when I pulled up the radar.

[hurrican19]

I have one word! Not again! Let it go to TX/LA since they need the rain. I have to admit that the clouds looked pretty wild this morning when I pulled up the radar.

We need the rain?

[RL3AO]

I have one word! Not again! Let it go to TX/LA since they need the rain. I have to admit that the clouds looked pretty wild this morning when I pulled up the radar.

They do?

[HouTXmetro]

We have had enough rain for the year.

[sphelps8681]

I have one word! Not again! Let it go to TX/LA since they need the rain. I have to admit that the clouds looked pretty wild this morning when I pulled up the radar.

They do?

They do what? I am in no way any kind of weather expert, novice. I just like to follow the storms that end up in the GOM. Since I live in Texas it is pretty important that I know exactly what is going to happen. Rita and Humberto prime examples of not enough time. Texas can not help the fact that these last couple of storms seem to want to come our way. The pro mets here that are from Texas have no way of controling when, where and how. We in no way want every Hurricane, TS, TD to come this way. Yes it does make it very exciting when they do. So why would you say and I quote (They do). Seems a little immature that grown people on this website would be so petty. It is almost like your mad it is not going somewhere else. Where would you like this storm to go?

It does not make it a pleasant experience when you get on this website and hear all the Texas bashing.

[swimaster20]

sphelps, I think RL3AO was talking about TX/LA needing the rain, not about the structure of 94L.

[Sanibel]

I see a Low coming together here and heading for Yucatan. GOM has already spawned an intensification record this year.

[sphelps8681]

I am sorry if I misunderstood the comment.

[southerngale]

I have one word! Not again! Let it go to TX/LA since they need the rain. I have to admit that the clouds looked pretty wild this morning when I pulled up the radar.

They do?

They do what? I am in no way any kind of weather expert, novice. I just like to follow the storms that end up in the GOM. Since I live in Texas it is pretty important that I know exactly what is going to happen. Rita and Humberto prime examples of not enough time. Texas can not help the fact that these last couple of storms seem to want to come our way. The pro mets here that are from Texas have no way of controling when, where and how. We in no way want every Hurricane, TS, TD to come this way. Yes it does make it very exciting when they do. So why would you say and I quote (They do). Seems a little immature that grown people on this website would be so petty. It is almost like your mad it is not going somewhere else. Where would you like this storm to go?

It does not make it a pleasant experience when you get on this website and hear all the Texas bashing.

Whoa... calm down. He was just saying "They do?" about us needing the rain.... saying that we don't need the rain, since we have had so much this year, plus a hurricane. Please read carefully or ask someone to clarify what they meant before jumping down their throat... RL3AO didn't do anything wrong.

Edit: I see you apologized, as we made our posts at the same time.