INVEST 98L: FL East Coast: Discussions & Images

[Bgator]

Yeah you can see the swirl in the radar as well, not well defined but its there. This will be a major rain maker, but at least near me, it only floods when it rains VERY hard.

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears to me based on the NWS Radar loop out of Miami that the center of the rotation is just east of Marathon and moving off to the NE towards Key Largo. Is anyone else seeing this.

SouthFLTropics

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it could be a tropical quasi-Nor'Easter...

[x-y-no]

It appears to me based on the NWS Radar loop out of Miami that the center of the rotation is just east of Marathon and moving off to the NE towards Key Largo. Is anyone else seeing this.

SouthFLTropics

Yeah, looks like middle keys somewhere, moving NE.

Wish we had Key West radar for a cross-check ...

[stormcrow]

With all the storms/areas of interest, do the models have difficulty handling this many potential cyclones (and cyclones) at one time? Is there one model that has a better record when it is this busy?

[hiflyer]

98L looks to be as far west as it is ever going to get....the whole CDO is just starting to lift NE from out of the straits....nice onshore mass of moisture going right up Biscayne Bay and using Base Velocity scans with GRLevel3 may be a slight twisting off upper keys halfway to the Bahamas....SST's are 29 near the peninsula and 30 in the islands...good fuel.

[eaglegirl]

FLUS42 KTBW 260942
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
542 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-261500-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
542 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
THEN DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

COLSON

[jasons2k]

By definition an Invest will not have a CDO

[SouthFLTropics]

Is there going to be a thread started with a sticky for the threat area for 98L, ie. South Florida?

[jasons2k]

Is there going to be a thread started with a sticky for the threat area for 98L, ie. South Florida?

We've decided to create threat area threads once it's designated as a cyclone, but not for Invests.

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh, ok...no problem

[deltadog03]

We do have a radar out of key west.....It does show some slight rotation. I have noticed a llc just north of key west.

[Sanibel]

NOAA GOM Satellite shows a surface spiral just north of Key West. There's a lot of rain on the east side of this. We, as usual, are on the dry side with a warm sunny day. We'll see if that swirl is the center and deepens.

[jasons2k]

Just to clarify the CDO comment:

(2). CDO developing:

Central dense overcast (CDO) occurs when TC wind speeds reach the 45-55 kt range (T number is in the range from 3.0 to 3.5), and is the precursor to the formation of an eye. The alternative to eye formation without a CDO is through the development of a banding type eye where the primary convective band curves around the center until it forms a closed convective ring. This also occurs at about T 3.5. The CDO frequently contains penetrative cumulonimbus that can be used to help locate the center. The CDO also has a circular temperature gradient with the coldest temperature near the center. As the CDO evolves, a warm spot appears. This is the first hint that subsidence is beginning to clear the cloud from the upper portions of the eye.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap6/ch6apd.htm

[storm4u]

From jeff masters I dont see how 98L could stall




Disturbed weather over Florida and the Bahamas
An area of disturbed weather has formed over South Florida and the western Bahama Islands, in association with an upper-level trough of low pressure. NHC has labeled this system "98L" this morning. The region is under about 15-20 knots of wind shear, which should keep any development slow today. This disturbance has brought rains of up to four inches to portions of the Florida Keys and the western Bahamas as seen on Miami radar. The thunderstorm activity associated with 98L is currently disorganized, as seen on long range radar out of Miami. The disturbance is expected to lift northeastward in response to a strong trough of low pressure swinging off the U.S. East Coast. On Thursday, when 98L will be over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream approaching North Carolina, the system has the potential to organize into a tropical depression, as wind shear is expected to fall to 10-20 knots. By Friday, the GFS model predicts 98L should be moving rapidly northeastward past Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and could bring heavy rain and high winds to Nantucket, Martha's Vinyard, and eastern Massachusetts. This would not give 98L much time to organize, and at worst 98L should become a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. However, the Canadian model predicts that the trough of low pressure pulling 98L northeast will not be strong enough to finish the job, and the storm will stall off the North Carolina coast. I'll have more on this possibility later.

[HURAKAN]

404
ABNT20 KNHC 261505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KAREN...LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN....LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAMPICO MEXICO.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE VICINITY OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL ACCOMPANIED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE LOCATED OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3 AND
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[x-y-no]

We do have a radar out of key west.....It does show some slight rotation. I have noticed a llc just north of key west.

Huh ...

Last image I'm getting from KBYX is from 11:05:55 PM last night.

[deltadog03]

Dang, I feel stupid!!! LOL your right it hasn't updated since 3z. Sorry bud!

[jasons2k]

I cannot get KBYX on GR3 via Allisonhouse, so something's up.

Also, their NWS homepage is down as well. Maybe there is a data outage.

[Flakeys]

FLC087-261645-
1048 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007

THE NATL WEATHER SVC IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR.
UPPER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY IN FL.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KEY LARGO.

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE UPPER KEYS.AND
THE ADJACENT NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS SO. FOR OVER 20
MILES.MOVING NW TO NO. NEAR 15 MPH. RADAR ESTIMATES AND
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN SOME
LOCATIONS SINCE MIDNIGHT. FURTHERMORE.AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS WIDESPREAD PONDING OF WATER & STREET
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT.LON 2522 8032 2515 8033 2510 8038 2508 8046
2518 8048 2525 8041 2523 8038 2525 8036
2529 8038 2537 8025 2534 8023
TIME.MOT.LOC 1448Z 180DEG 0KT 2524 8032