INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[mightyerick]

it looks very impressive in infrared. It is a son of Karen???

[Chacor]

Not 90 kts. SHIPS does *NOT* show a 90 kt cyclone.

[vacanechaser]

Not 90 kts. SHIPS does *NOT* show a 90 kt cyclone.

correct, shows 79kts... not 90kts... the 90kts was at weatherunderground model map and is incorrect


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ciclonson]

he must have meant 90 mph

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC MItch was supposed to come North towards the Gulf shortly after forming, and instead drifted down into Central America where it did all the damage.


It did make the Gulf eventually, but was just a shell of the monster it was.

Just my impression, South of the established Westerlies, steering can become weake and erratic in October.

[mightyerick]

This season mademe cry... july 96L, ago-sept 98L, Ingrid, Karen, sept 97L, Melissa... they all sheared to their destrution.

however, 92L looks like a little ray of hope

[wxman57]

This season mademe cry... july 96L, ago-sept 98L, Ingrid, Karen, sept 97L, Melissa... they all sheared to their destrution.

however, 92L looks like a little ray of hope

Hope for what? A number of us have been significantly impacted by hurricanes in the past 2-3 years. I don't want my mother's home to be flooded again.

You may be in the wrong forum.

[hurricanetrack]

As far as global models go now, it looks like the faster this gets in to the southern GOM, the more chance it has to just get caught under a developing ridge over the western GOM and heads in to MX.

However, yesterday's 18Z GFS showed the other possibility- that it gets caught between the two ridges and comes north a lot sooner and impacts the north-central Gulf Coast.

So, in my guess right now, the longer this takes to get to the southern GOM, the more chance it has to come back north or NE later down the road. Otherwise we are spared yet again with a Mexico landfall. This is not a forecast by a trained expert- just my thoughts looking at the various global models.

[Stormcenter]

This season mademe cry... july 96L, ago-sept 98L, Ingrid, Karen, sept 97L, Melissa... they all sheared to their destrution.

however, 92L looks like a little ray of hope

Hope for what? I would just be as happy to see 92L end up the same
way as those you mentioned above. If anything I believe that (the season so far) in itself is already working against 92L becoming anything significant.

[mightyerick]

This season mademe cry... july 96L, ago-sept 98L, Ingrid, Karen, sept 97L, Melissa... they all sheared to their destrution.

however, 92L looks like a little ray of hope

Hope for what? A number of us have been significantly impacted by hurricanes in the past 2-3 years. I don't want my mother's home to be flooded again.

You may be in the wrong forum.

Sorry, i was misunderstood.

I love hurricanes, i love to see those things spinning. I dont wanna see floodings and devastation. can be fine It if it just turns left and it gets "fish".

[Buck]

This could be a landmark storm if the models pan out. Interesting track... definitely one to watch.

[x-y-no]

What does everyone think of 25.0N 74.1W as the initialization point for the models? That's west of most of the convection, although a little bit is flaring up around there now.

[Buck]

What does everyone think of 25.0N 74.1W as the initialization point for the models? That's west of most of the convection, although a little bit is flaring up around there now.

I just noticed that too...

[flwxwatcher]

Agreed Hurricanetrack and I suspect we will see some different model solutions the coming days

[Cryomaniac]

mightyerick, There is nothing (at least to me...) wrong with wanting a storm to form, since we have pretty much no control at all over it, unless you believe in the whole positive thought business. The problem is wanting people to be hurt by something. Now there's nothing wrong with that, per se, but others may be offended by it if you say it publically.

In short I can see no problem at all with people 'wishcasting', unless it's done solely to offend someone / for political reasons.

[Vortex]

What's concerning is looking at the 200mb progs from the globals. This system will have a very favorable environment to work with and plenty of octane. If this doesn't go into Cuba and passes thru the straights of florida/Gulf stream there is nothing stopping it from becoming an intense hurricane upon entering the Gulf...

[Derek Ortt]

unfortunately... this is close to becoming a shoe-in hurricane. Not committing to that outcome yet though

[PTrackerLA]

unfortunately... this is close to becoming a shoe-in hurricane. Not committing to that outcome yet though

This one has my attention now. Looks like we might have to throw climatology out the window during the next week.

[cycloneye]

Derek,another one for Mexico?

[Portastorm]

Seeing that mets I hold in high regard -- Derek and Wxman57 -- are already expressing what I would call moderate concern, I am now officially worried!