SW Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression TWO (ex-ARIEL)

[CrazyC83]

Now an Aussie Cat 2 (70 kt gusts):

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/show_prod ... 60281.html

Should remain a fish though.

[WindRunner]

JTWC still at 35kt TS as of 18z . . . but I think that should be about 40kt by now. Either way, still weaker than BoM's 50kts.

[CrazyC83]

BOM's 50 kt is 10-min sustained, so it should be more like 55-60 kt.

[WindRunner]

Umm . . . is that what I think it is?



NRL/JTWC at 45kts now . . .

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0707UTC 15 NOVEMBER 2007

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600 UTC Tropical Cyclone Lee located within 20 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal nine south [10.9S]
longitude ninety decimal one east [90.1E]
Recent movement : south southwest at 7 knots.
Maximum winds : 50 knots near centre.
Central pressure: 984 hPa.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles of the centre, extending to within 100 nautical miles
of the centre in the southeast quadrant.

FORECAST
Sustained winds to 50 knots near centre increasing to 55 knots for a period from
1200 UTC to 0000 UTC 16 November 2007.

Within 35 nautical miles of centre : winds above 48 knots, with very rough to
high seas and moderate swell.

Within 80 nautical miles extending to within 100 nautical miles in the southeast
quadrant: winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

At 1800 UTC 15 November: Within 45 nautical miles of 11.7 south 89.4 east
Central pressure 976 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0600 UTC 16 November: Within 70 nautical miles of 12.0 south 88.5 east
Central pressure 984 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by at 1300 UTC by RSMC Reunion on headers WTIO20 [English]
and WTIO21 [French].


WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Fishy, fishy, fishy!!!

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2015NOV20 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 11:05:51 S Lon : 89:56:17 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.1 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -69.3C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Severe Tropical Storm Ariel is here.

[Chacor]

575
WTIO30 FMEE 151216

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 89.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/16 00 UTC: 11.7S/88.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/16 12 UTC: 11.8S/86.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/17 00 UTC: 11.9S/85.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/17 12 UTC: 12.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.2S/84.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.8S/84.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI = 3.5.
SEVERE TROPICAL STROM ARIEL EX-LEE HAS CROSSED THE 90E FROM AUSTRALIAN
RESPONSABILITY AREA TO RSMC LA REUNION'S ONE AROUND 0800 UTC TODAY AND
HAS BEEN RENAMED IN CONSEQUENCE.
SYSTEM HAS SHOWED SLIGHT SIGNS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(BEGINNING CIRRUS ARC) DUE TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 15S.
TRMM 0407UTC CONFIRMS IT AND SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE PATTERN IN 85GHZ
SLIGHTLY DEPHASED WITH THE LLCC IN 37GHZ.
LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER A NEW BURST OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKIN SOUTHWESTWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
WESTWARDS AT SHORT RANGE.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO LESS FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
BETWEEN 5S AND 13/14S.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2015NOV20 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 11:09:29 S Lon : 89:50:15 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 986.8mb/ 51.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -73.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2015NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 11:16:21 S Lon : 89:38:17 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -71.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Now is RSMC La Reunion responsibility. Remains a strong TS.

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 151829

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/2/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/15 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 88.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/16 06 UTC: 11.9S/87.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/16 18 UTC: 12.0S/86.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/17 06 UTC: 12.2S/85.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/17 18 UTC: 12.4S/84.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 12.8S/84.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..
72H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 13.2S/83.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI = 3.5.

TWO MICROWAVE PASSES (SSMI AT 1423Z AND AMSUB AT 1558Z) GIVE A FAIRLY
GOOD FIX. THOSE DATA SEEMS TO CONFIRM A BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE
WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS.
SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR DUE TO HIGH
LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 15S.
LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER A STILL HOMOGENOUS AND
COLD CONVECTION.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO LESS FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
BETWEEN 5S AND 13/14S.

ARIEL SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARDS BEFORE SLOWING DOWN DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE.

[CrazyC83]

Well defined CDO, so probably 55-60 kt (1-min).

[hcane27]

http://www.hurricanealley.net/swio.htm

[RattleMan]

JTWC up to 65kt at 21z.

[HurricaneBill]

Latest image of Ariel.

[CrazyC83]

Now a hurricane-strength storm.

[HURAKAN]

Latest image of Ariel.

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