Typhoon Man-yi (04W)

[Derek Ortt]

the observations seem to confirm that the JTWC estimate was out to lunch on the high side.


Manyi almost certainly never exceeded cat 3 status

[Chacor]

Given that KNES and PGTW both gave at least T6.0 (115 kt) at some point I think high cat 3 or low cat 4 would seem about right (JMA's 95 kt corresponds to about 108 kt 1-min).

[KatDaddy]

After seeing the Obs for many hours I agree Derek. Being in the eyewall with gusts not exceeding 100MPH does not equal a CAT 3 or greater. Manyi is a very large typhoon so I would expect it wrap up much slower and to spread its energy over a much larger area resulting in a less powerful eyewall.......well thats my 2 cents.

[benny]

After seeing the Obs for many hours I agree Derek. Being in the eyewall with gusts not exceeding 100MPH does not equal a CAT 3 or greater. Manyi is a very large typhoon so I would expect it wrap up much slower and to spread its energy over a much larger area resulting in a less powerful eyewall.......well thats my 2 cents.

940 mb... nice!
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/ROAH.html

Nothing that says it was anywhere near upper-end Cat 4.. but of course those obs are hard to find anytime. I think they were overdoing it as well on the intensity.

[Chacor]

Latest JTWC warning is out, down to 125 kt. Just west of Naha at 00Z. Okinawa should be out of it in about 12 hours.

[Chacor]

Kadena obs:
2007.07.13 0226 UTC
Wind from the SSW (200 degrees) at 76 MPH (66 KT) gusting to 99 MPH (86 KT) (direction variable)

Other side of the eyewall moving out of the area, Okinawa back into the deep convection now... typhoon-force winds.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Airport observations from landfalling TCs sometimes seems to be a lot lower than the actually conditions that are prevailing. As typhoon Xangsane passed over Danang, Vietnam the highest airport gust was about 70mph I think. I can assure you the actual winds were a lot higher than that!

Naha will now be getting nailed.

[dwsqos2]

Kadena Observations:

METAR RODN 130255Z COR 21056G91KT M0400 R05/0100V0150 +RA FG OVC008 26/26 A2820 RMK AO2 PK WND 20091/0244 UPB0156E0200RAB0200DZE0156 PRESRR SLP548 P1037 61397 T02630258 53022 COR 0259 $

Okinoerabu (27.4° N 128.7° E) Observations:

METAR RJKB 130300Z 13062G84KT 1000 SHRA FEW003 SCT010 BKN015 26/25 Q0974

[Ptarmigan]

Not quite. Cat 5 = 140 kts. NRL now has Man-yi back to 125 kt, down from 135. Very close to Naha now.

Well, close enough. Anyways, prayers for Naha City and Okinawa. Hopefully they will pull through.

[Category 5]

Good news is it's weakening. Down to 125kts. Which isn't saying much though.

It looks less impressive each frame but it's still EXTREMELY dangerous and to be taken very seriously by those in it's way.

Prayers to all in this monsters path.

[HurricaneBill]

Unfortunately, Man-Yi has already caused fatalities.

2 days ago, a Chinese ship hundreds of miles north of Guam sank in rough weather due to Man-Yi. U.S. Coast Guard received the ship's distress call and 2 boats rescued 10 crew members. However, 12 crew members remained missing.

In the Philippines, rough seas caused by Man-Yi resulted in a ferry capsizing. 14 people are dead and 129 have been rescued. However, there are conflicting reports on how many were aboard the ferry. Sources indicate anywhere from 144 to 256 people were on board. Unfortunately, it is common for people to board ferries at the last minute and not be on the list of passengers.

[Coredesat]

The eyewall has opened up. Man-yi is likely weakening rapidly at this point, and extratropical transition shouldn't be far away.

[Normandy]

Man this storm has the largest area of cloud cover ive ever seen.

[Chacor]

JTWC has upped intensity back to 130 kts. Something's up.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah Chacor, that is odd by JTWC. JMA have this weakening now. 90kts at the moment:

TY 0704 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 06:00 UTC, 13 July 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0704 MAN-YI (0704)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 27.4N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 190NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 230NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 31.7N 130.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT

[Aslkahuna]

Eh, it's a fair sized typhoon but I've seen much bigger.

Steve

[Chacor]

Here's the latest (from 08Z) from the Japanese adv, translated (I don't speak Japanese but the fact that they use some Chinese characters helps):

July 13, 1700 JST analysis
Size: Large
Strength: Very strong
Location: 110 km WSW of Okino-erabu
Centre: 27.9N 127.7E
Movement: North 15 kt
Pressure: 940 hPa
Max wind: 90 kt
Max gust: 130kt

[Chacor]

Here is the link to the latest obs from Okinoerabu btw: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJKB.html

[alan1961]

First news reports from Okinawa

http://www.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/ram/28.ram

[Chacor]