Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[gatorcane]

Whoa...could we be looking at a triple shot down the road? Man, that would suck if Felix hit the same area as Dean, and then comes Gabby.

My prediction. Dean furthest south, Felix more north, and Gabby? ends up even more north. I just CANNOT see all three impacting Central America which typically gets hit once every 20 years or so...

Just no way by the law of averages...

[Weatherfreak14]

I see this developing down the road and it does look to be a Carribean storm also, and clue in when this patteren can change?

[hurricanefloyd5]

Whoa...could we be looking at a triple shot down the road? Man, that would suck if Felix hit the same area as Dean, and then comes Gabby.

My prediction. Dean furthest south, Felix more north, and Gabby? ends up even more north. I just CANNOT see all three impacting Central America which typically gets hit once every 20 years or so...

Just no way by the law of averages...

Remember 2004 and florida!!!! It's possible!!!!

[Jinkers]

Whoa...could we be looking at a triple shot down the road? Man, that would suck if Felix hit the same area as Dean, and then comes Gabby.

My prediction. Dean furthest south, Felix more north, and Gabby? ends up even more north. I just CANNOT see all three impacting Central America which typically gets hit once every 20 years or so...

Just no way by the law of averages...

Remember 2004 and florida!!!! It's possible!!!!

and florida in 2005

[Ed Mahmoud]

While Felix looks like Southern runner, GFS and Euro 8 to 10 day mean 500 mb heights suggest a system approaching Western Caribbean a week from now could be a TX/LA threat.

[Weatherfreak000]

Hmmm....98L would have a whole 48 hours extra while Felix probably hits CA.


If nothing happens to break down this ridge and a THIRD Hurricane hits the CA, I'm going to be dumbfounded.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I highly doubt that 98L will hit Central America. It is already north of where Dean and Felix began, so I think a track more toward the northern Yucatan or Yucatan Channel and then into the GOM would be more likely with this system down the road. Before that point though, 98L may also be a threat to many of the northern caribbean islands, which will need to be the first to watch and worry about this system.

[skysummit]

I highly doubt that 98L will hit Central America. It is already north of where Dean and Felix began, so I think a track more toward the northern Yucatan or Yucatan Channel and then into the GOM would be more likely with this system down the road. Before that point though, 98L may also be a threat to many of the northern caribbean islands, which will need to be the first to watch and worry about this system.

Yea, it's already north, but it's moving WSW. If that current movement continues, it's gonna be way south.

[ROCK]

Hmmm....98L would have a whole 48 hours extra while Felix probably hits CA.


If nothing happens to break down this ridge and a THIRD Hurricane hits the CA, I'm going to be dumbfounded.

I will eat my hat if that happens....

Seriously, 98l still getting sheared to death while the COC is being pushed to the SW. Easy to see on the water vapor loop and the steering current maps. one thing it has going for it is less shear ahead and a vigorious LLC...its a fighter no doubt...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[ROCK]

I highly doubt that 98L will hit Central America. It is already north of where Dean and Felix began, so I think a track more toward the northern Yucatan or Yucatan Channel and then into the GOM would be more likely with this system down the road. Before that point though, 98L may also be a threat to many of the northern caribbean islands, which will need to be the first to watch and worry about this system.

Yea, it's already north, but it's moving WSW. If that current movement continues, it's gonna be way south.

it will continue for some time before resuming a westward track. See current steering chart above...

[skysummit]

Yea, you can see the LLC real good on IR2, and the convection really trying to develop again. It's having a tough time for now, but will probably be getting to the sweet spot in a few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Folks patience on this one. I think it will develop but it will take a couple of days. Look at all the moisture it still has with it.
This one will track a bit farther north than Felix and could be a player to watch for the islands/US down the road given where it is developing and the steering patterns.

Locals in South Florida are already talking some about it -- although it is way too early to say what it is going to do.

Check out this water vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

I agree, and I don't want to hear any crap from anyone about how it's going to Mexico just like Felix and Dean...it's more North of Felix and it's way too far away for anyone to even think that. If this does develop, I'm sure sure the ridge will have a weakness and won't move in tandum with this like it did with Dean and Felix...of course we only need to worry about it IF it develops...

[Ed Mahmoud]

SHIPs shows no strengthening for the first 96 hours, a sign it doesn't think conditions are favorable for development before then.

Link

[windstorm99]

Interesting models have this thing moving SW then begining a WNW-NW path towards the northern islands in the coming days.

[bob rulz]

Interesting models have this thing moving SW then begining a WNW-NW path towards the northern islands in the coming days.

Which pretty much means that anybody's guess is as good as anybody else's.

[Mathias]

This year will have the distinction of being the strangest year as far as how the storms have defied the expectations of climatological tracking.

[caneman]

not that it can't make a come back but this looks poofed and even if it came back would take awhile

[HURAKAN]

not that it can't make a come back but this looks poofed and even if it came back would take awhile

Are you kidding!!! The system is just being affected by shear, but the LLC is there and it's producing convection. Just look at the loop. Look for development once shear lessens.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes, the high is forcing this to its base. In which once there it can develop, and pick up speed like Dean and Felix and fellow in one big train.

[caneman]

Nope not kidding you. Yes there is a low level there but it got slaughtered overnight and as stated would take awhile to make a comeback. NHC seems to agree that in the short term conditions are only marginal for development.


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020930
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ARUBA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD LATER TODAY. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS LIMITED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS
WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB