Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[Emmett_Brown]

I think what we should take from the lastest model runs is two things:

1. The ridge appears to be stronger in the last several runs. The models have therefore trended to the west.

2. There is still poor agreement, and this trend may not be over.

Therefore, a Georgia storm is not out of the realm of possibility in my opinion. Granted, the models did not initialize the system as far east as it is, but the overall trend to the left could be important to GA, and maybe even N FL if it holds.

[mitchell]

I'm scratching my head trying to figure out what all of the dates and times mean in the model output graphic below??

[Meso]

12z NAM for what it's worth.

[chris_fit]

Here are the latest models, spaghetti style...



IMO, again In My Unprofessional Opinion, this is being way over-hyped by everyone! I do not think this is even a TD, YET. The LLC is completely exposed and it is being sheared to pieces. Everyone is reading the models like a Bible. Remember with Felix and Dean they did not forecast such intensification, but yet it happened. I believe in this case that the models ARE predicting such intensification, but it will NOT happen. That is all

[Derek Ortt]

How is this being over hyped? it is a shoe-in. All data suggests this and conditions are becoming much more favorable for development

Just wait 24-36 hours. This as not supposed to undergo RI today anyways. Be patient!

[BigA]

How is this being over hyped? it is a shoe-in. All data suggests this and conditions are becoming much more favorable for development

Just wait 24-36 hours. This as not supposed to undergo RI today anyways. Be patient!

Derek/Mr. Ortt: I greatly respect you, and honestly believe that your prediction is correct, so I ask this truly out of curiosity and desire to learn rather than criticism, but what environmental factors or changes cause you and your colleagues to believe that conditions are becoming/ will become more favorable? I recall that Wxman57 said something similar earlier this morning.

Thank you much.

[cycloneye]

12z GFs starting to roll

Here we go with the 12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

12 hours

This run starts almost where the low is in reallity.

[Derek Ortt]

that the winds are backing from SW at the UL to southerly, first signs that the expected UH will develop over this system

[cycloneye]

24 hours

[Meso]

CMC @ 24 Hours



CMC @ 48 Hours

[BigA]

that the winds are backing from SW at the UL to southerly, first signs that the expected UH will develop over this system

Thank you!

[cycloneye]

42 hours

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS' initialization was good with respect to longitude. As of the 54 hour map, It has the low a bit further NW vs. both the 6Z run and 0Z run.

[cycloneye]

54 hours

Moving NW.

[BigA]

Looks like it deepened between the 42 and 54 hour time frame. Maybe this is when shear really becomes light.

[cycloneye]

66 hours

More stronger and moving NW.

[LarryWx]

The good initialization of the 12Z GFS (i.e. far enough east) is one factor allowing it to easily avoid a direct hit threat to Charleston and below. This is a good illustration of the "how far east" factor imho.

[cycloneye]

78 hours

Stronger and moving NNW close to Cape Hatteras.

Meso what happened to CMC?

[cycloneye]

90 hours

Just off OuterBanks.