Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

[Ivanhater]

12Z EC says Freeport, TX mid to late morning Sunday. I have it plotted with 1/2 mb contours. A bit north of earlier runs. Making the upper TX coast to LA the target for now.

What is the "EC"? Are you talking about the ECMWF? I don't see the 12z on their site yet if so....or, are you plotting raw data.

Yes, I get the raw data here. I can select to plot it in 1/2 millibar increments for a better analysis of where it's putting the surface low. And I like to plot the 500mb heights in 10 meter increments to really define the ridge. EC shows a breakdown of the western side of the ridge Saturday and a hooking track toward Freeport, kind of like Rita. I suspect landfall may well be north of there into SW LA.

Wxman...why are you only going with the Euro...most of the globals..GFS, UKMET, AND GFDL show around New Orleans..for now anyway

[skysummit]

SHIPS has almost no shear at this time tomorrow.

The UL likely is not going to have the influence on shearing this that I thought yesterday (isn't as sheared as I thought it would be currently even)

Derek, why is the SHIPS showing such low shear as early as tomorrow? Is it figuring the ULL moving away quicker than we're currently thinking?

[Sabanic]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

That's a wide gap for a possible landfall

[gatorcane]

Yes, that is why I think the NHC may consider tropical storm warnings for parts of Florida tonight.

Just my opinion.

Another thing to consider is the possibility of tornado watches/warnings with all the vorticity in the atmosphere....

[JPmia]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

Boy that statement stands out to me! They sound very bullish on this developing and the possibilities for future development in the Gulf. Hmm. I will say that my personal observation is that winds and rain is defintely on the increase in South Florida all day today.

[HURAKAN]

That's a wide gap for a possible landfall

7 x 60 nm = 420 nm. Large window!!!

[caneman]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

That's a wide gap for a possible landfall

PLease remember folks that initial landfall may in fact be the Florida coast. Further, West Florida has to deal with it on the backside. Frances and Jeanne combined put me without power for 11 days total.

[gatorcane]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

That's a wide gap for a possible landfall

PLease remember folks that initial landfall may in fact be the Florida coast. Further, West Florida has to deal with it on the backside. Frances and Jeanne combined put me without power for 11 days total.

Also note that Frances and Jeanne provided top winds of aroub 60-80mph on the west coast of Florida.
which knocked out power for weeks in Pinellas and hillsborough counties

Even if the west coast of Florida sees a tropical storm out of this, they all know what happened from the strong winds on Frances "back side" once she hit the Gulf.

[Wx_Warrior]

It's interesting to see the jump in models GFS and with the GFDL now pointing towards NOLA. The GFS has been good this year and the EURO has been decent and some live and die by their favorite models.

I don't see anything going west of SETX this time of year. I think anywhere from here to Pensacola will be on full alert.

I have a strong feeling that the EURO @ 2';30am will be even more east than the this past run of Galv.

The major problem is we are within 5 days now!

[Sabanic]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

That's a wide gap for a possible landfall

PLease remember folks that initial landfall may in fact be the Florida coast. Further, West Florida has to deal with it on the backside. Frances and Jeanne combined put me without power for 11 days total.

Definitely didn't mean to slight anyone on the FL peninsula

[Ivanhater]

[seaswing]

Yes, that is why I think the NHC may consider tropical storm warnings for parts of Florida tonight.

Just my opinion.

Another thing to consider is the possibility of tornado watches/warnings with all the vorticity in the atmosphere....

They better hurry up then!

BTW--- Gators=T-Bow=Unstoppable

[eaglegirl]

PLease remember folks that initial landfall may in fact be the Florida coast. Further, West Florida has to deal with it on the backside. Frances and Jeanne combined put me without power for 11 days total.

WHUS52 KTBW 181930
SMWTBW
GMZ853-182030-
/O.NEW.KTBW.MA.W.0107.070918T1929Z-070918T2030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
329 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 329 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER...FROM MANATEE 3 MILE NORTH REEF TO 19 MILES EAST OF BIG
SARASOTA PASS...OR FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EGMONT KEY TO 19 MILES
EAST OF NEW PASS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SIESTA KEY BY 350 PM EDT.
VENICE INLET BY 430 PM EDT.

THE OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
BEFORE 340 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRODUCING VERY HIGH
WAVES. IF AT SEA...GO BELOW DECK UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. OTHERS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

PLEASE REPORT WATERSPOUTS OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 34 KNOTS OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY VESSEL DAMAGE
TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.

&&

LAT...LON 2761 8296 2742 8256 2734 8252 2728 8253
2720 8247 2716 8248 2712 8245 2710 8246
2705 8276 2725 8296 2737 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 034DEG 12KT 2752 8282 2733 8255
2737 8228

$$

88

[gatorcane]

To me if you look at those models and the current SAT image it reminds me alot of Frances -- although Frances was much stronger..

wow here we go again.

latest:

[Lifesgud2]

anybody want to bet Tropical storm watches/warnings will be issued for the South Florida waters from Tampa Bay south around through Melborune on the East Coast including West Palm Beach through Miami?

Wouldn't surprise me if we see some tonight....

how about a steak dinner at Smith and Wollensky's..

Not going to happen

[Brent]

Yes, that is why I think the NHC may consider tropical storm warnings for parts of Florida tonight.

Just my opinion.

Another thing to consider is the possibility of tornado watches/warnings with all the vorticity in the atmosphere....

If they put TS warnings up then it has to be at least a TD first. They don't put them up for invests only. It's certainly possible... could see another "surprise" storm.

[caneman]

Frances was stronger but looking at some of the models I'm concerned that on the West coast it could jump its intensity rather quickly.

[DESTRUCTION5]

To me if you look at those models and the current SAT image it reminds me alot of Frances -- although Frances was much stronger..

wow here we go again.

latest:

LMAO ..Yea that looks exactly like frances...maybe whn she left Africa!

[seaswing]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRES CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR BIMINI IN THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING RAPIDLY AS UPLIFT PROVIDED BY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY JOINS DIFFLUCENT FLOW ALOFT. CONDITIONS EXACERBATE
WITH CONSTANT MOIST TROPICAL SLY FLOW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON
DEVELOPING A HYBRID NON-TROPICAL LOW PRES CENTER WHICH DRIFTS W
AS IT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL IN NATURE WITH PATH OVER WARM GULF
WATERS WHERE SST IS WELL ABOVE 26 DEG. MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS LIE LATIDUDE OF PATH WITH GFS NORTHERNMOST AND
ECM AT THE SOUTHERNMOST...MOST OTHER MODELS FALL IN BETWEEN.
LANDFALL VARIES FROM 90W TO 97W.

That's a wide gap for a possible landfall

PLease remember folks that initial landfall may in fact be the Florida coast. Further, West Florida has to deal with it on the backside. Frances and Jeanne combined put me without power for 11 days total.

I was out 6 days but now I have a generator!