Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[HollynLA]

yeah, the northward movement of the GFDL off the FL coast and then the other northward movement of both the GFS and GFDL in the Gulf is very suspect to me. I just cannot see such a sharp turn playing out. Hopefully the 12z GFS and GFDL, with new data, will be more realistic.

EWG, which model do you agree with then?

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, the northward movement of the GFDL off the FL coast and then the other northward movement of both the GFS and GFDL in the Gulf is very suspect to me. I just cannot see such a sharp turn playing out. Hopefully the 12z GFS and GFDL, with new data, will be more realistic.

EWG, which model do you agree with then?

I don't really agree 100% with any model right now. Until this becomes a TD, the runs are not always very accurate (since it can be hard to locate the exact center), and I expect more flip flops today and tomorrow. As of this moment though, I am leaning toward what I am hearing from the mets and am going to believe that we will see a Texas or SW Louisiana landfall in the end. According to JB's most recent post, he thinks that while a NOLA scenario is possible, it is still unlikely. I guess we shall see. The next 24-48 hours will certainly be interesting in terms of possible development and model shifts east and west. Hopefully by Friday we will know where this is likely going to go.

[Sabanic]

yeah, the northward movement of the GFDL off the FL coast and then the other northward movement of both the GFS and GFDL in the Gulf is very suspect to me. I just cannot see such a sharp turn playing out. Hopefully the 12z GFS and GFDL, with new data, will be more realistic.

EWG, which model do you agree with then?

I don't really agree 100% with any model right now. Until this becomes a TD, the runs are not always very accurate (since it can be hard to locate the exact center), and I expect more flip flops today and tomorrow. As of this moment though, I am leaning toward what I am hearing from the mets and am going to believe that we will see a Texas or SW Louisiana landfall in the end. According to JB's most recent post, he thinks that while a NOLA scenario is possible, it is still unlikely. I guess we shall see. The next 24-48 hours will certainly be interesting in terms of possible development and model shifts east and west. Hopefully by Friday we will know where this is likely going to go.

So basically EWG you are like everyone else at this point. We have no clue until a TD forms and we have a defined actual center. I though would not rule out any area of the Gulf Coast this early in the game.

[Portastorm]

This morning, I'm trying to understand why the GFS and Euro are so different. As you may recall, AFM said yesterday that a big key to the eventual movement of this system is what the cut-off low off the coast of southern California will do later this week.

The 0z GFS at 96 hrs starts to eject the low into the Rockies:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

BUT ... the 0z Euro at 96 hrs keeps the low back a bit longer and also shears it out over the Rockies, perhaps meaning it erodes the ridge less:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... spd_96.gif

Regardless, it's going to be real interesting to watch!

[TampaFl]

yeah, the northward movement of the GFDL off the FL coast and then the other northward movement of both the GFS and GFDL in the Gulf is very suspect to me. I just cannot see such a sharp turn playing out. Hopefully the 12z GFS and GFDL, with new data, will be more realistic.

Hopefully as in what? (A more west path towards Texas?). What if the 12z GFS & GFDL come in showing basically the same paths as in recent runs? Then what?

If you look at the latest WV loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html), it appears the ULL is drifting ssw (sitting just off Sarasota & Fort Myers). So why would not the LLC off Miami move to the north then move west across South or South Central Florida into the Gulf.?

From NWS Tampa AFD this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
253 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION BEGINNING
TO UNFOLD AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST OR NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH OR CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY...THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT RECENTLY MOVED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF IS STILL PRODUCING STRONG WIND SHEAR OVER THE
DEVELOPING LOW...BUT TROPICAL OR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS.


With the LLV center rather hard to locate this morning (or untill it becomes better defined), IMHO I do not think at this time there will be much change in the model runs.

This system will be developing very slowly for the next 24 - 36 hours, so time will tell.

Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL Intensity and Track Animation

[Ivanhater]

6z GFDL Intensity and Track Animation

Takes it to about 80mph

[ronjon]

yeah, the northward movement of the GFDL off the FL coast and then the other northward movement of both the GFS and GFDL in the Gulf is very suspect to me. I just cannot see such a sharp turn playing out. Hopefully the 12z GFS and GFDL, with new data, will be more realistic.

EWG, I wouldn't focus on the "suspect" north movement on each individual model run but where it goes in 72-96 hrs. I agree with you that maybe a more gradual W-NW or NW movement would probably occur once it forms in the eastern GOM. But as wxman57 said yesterday, it doesn't take much of a shift in direction to impact the northern Gulf Coast by 400 miles difference (say the diff between W-NW or NW). The GFS and UKMET are apparently weakening the western edge of the ridge becuz they are more progressive with the piece of energy off the CA coast that will move east and northeast. As I said earlier, this mornings HPC preliminary discussion seemed to buy into the GFS reasoning. I don't have an opinion one way or the other but there you have it. I know wxman57 probably feels otherwise but that's why weather is so unpredictable.

[PTPatrick]

in respect to the GFDL's north motion east of FLorida...there isnt even a LLC yet, so any guess at how its moving int he next 24 hours is suspect to say the least. BUT if you look at the over movment on the clouds and storms...I could see why GFDL would put a low down and try to move it north a little. Could the GFDL also be trying to put a low down and sort of "rotate" it within the overall midlevel circulation? just a thought

[Sjones]

Does anyone have the latest CMC model out of curiousity? It picked up on Dean and Humberto so, I'm just curious as to what it would show...

[Johnny]

It seems to me that their is no model agreement simply because we don't have a defined system....obviously. When this thing starts getting it's act together over the gulf then I will start paying attention. Till then, it's just for entertainment purposes.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC WED SEP 19 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932007) 20070919 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070919  1200   070920  0000   070920  1200   070921  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    27.2N  79.9W   27.8N  81.2W   28.7N  82.7W   29.6N  84.2W
BAMD    27.2N  79.9W   28.5N  81.2W   29.6N  82.9W   30.4N  84.8W
BAMM    27.2N  79.9W   28.0N  81.3W   28.9N  82.8W   29.7N  84.4W
LBAR    27.2N  79.9W   28.3N  80.9W   29.5N  82.0W   31.0N  82.8W
SHIP        25KTS          31KTS          39KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          25KTS          30KTS          39KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070921  1200   070922  1200   070923  1200   070924  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.6N  85.9W   32.6N  88.9W   34.9N  92.4W   39.1N  93.7W
BAMD    31.0N  86.7W   31.8N  90.0W   34.5N  94.2W   41.1N  93.4W
BAMM    30.6N  86.1W   32.3N  88.9W   34.6N  92.4W   39.1N  93.9W
LBAR    32.4N  83.8W   34.6N  84.7W   34.8N  84.1W   35.4N  84.5W
SHIP        57KTS          65KTS          62KTS          64KTS
DSHP        32KTS          27KTS          27KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  27.2N LONCUR =  79.9W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  26.0N LONM12 =  79.3W DIRM12 = 331DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  25.5N LONM24 =  78.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[Ivanhater]

[MiamiensisWx]

They're initializing a sfc low much further N (off the east-central FL coast near Stuart). Earlier, it was initialized off Miami, FL. That's a significant northward shift.

[Portastorm]

Due to the fact that the mess east of Florida is so disorganized, I'm not sure how anyone can have much confidence in ANY model run or initialization at this point.

[Agua]

Due to the fact that the mess east of Florida is so disorganized, I'm not sure how anyone can have much confidence in ANY model run or initialization at this point.

Absolutely. Without a defined llc, these things are junk. Further, the BAMs are useless outside of the deep tropics.

[Derek Ortt]

since the BAMM is onshore in 48 hours, may be best to set the SHIPS output aside

[Wx_Warrior]

I do put thought in these models this early. The same thing was said when earlier storms were trying to form. They do all form something so that is something to pay attention to PLUS we are within 4 days now of a landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast!

[Stormcenter]

I do put thought in these models this early. The same thing was said when earlier storms were trying to form. They do all form something so that is something to pay attention to PLUS we are within 4 days now of a landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast!

You mean two days per some if not most of the models.

[Ivanhater]

12Z NAM...