INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[Gustywind]

radar from martinique at of 1600 utc shows the developing center about 30 miles ese of Martinique moving wnw....

Good analysis absolutely Vortex agree with you and convection continues to pop by hour, note that Meteo-France emphazises on the risk of strong showers and thunderstorms tonight ant tommorow morning with the yellow alert , we must monitor this system very carefully...
12am by Meteo-France: looking much better!!!
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:



Looking more organized than in the morning hours.

[MWatkins]

I am sure the recent increase in convection very close to the NHC fix point is probably just some maritime thunderstorms associated with the wave axis.

Also, I don't really expect the global models to universally miss cyclogenesis near the islands/eastern Caribbean yet again. I mean, sure they whiffed on Category 5 Felix...but that couldn't happen again in the same part of the basin in the same year, right?

Blue Man Group looking good!

DISCLAIMER

This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. This is my own personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

Station 41100 - Lesser Antilles
15.90 N 57.90 W (15°54'1" N 57°54'0" W

09 24 1600 ESE 17.1 - 5.6 6 - - 29.91 -0.01 83.1 - 76.6 - - -
09 24 1500 ESE 15.9 - 5.9 6 - - 29.93 +0.02 82.0 - 76.6 - - -
09 24 1400 ESE 17.1 - 5.2 6 - - 29.93 +0.04 83.1 - 77.4 - - -
09 24 1300 E 15.9 - 5.2 7 - - 29.92 +0.05 83.3 - 77.0 - - -
09 24 1200 ESE 15.0 - 5.6 7 - - 29.90 +0.05 83.1 - 75.7 -

Sharp increase in winds: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... wspd&uom=E

Now (17z) 19 knots.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Gustywind]

LATEST:



Looking more organized than in the morning hours.

Yeah no more doubts, and Meteo-France is talking about a high chance to have a TD tonight before crossing the islands, but very high and dangereous potential twave....and given the latest sat pic that's an option very objective by hour , very decent shot but hopefully no more really organized at this time...we should continue to monitor this closely in the Leewards and Southern Windwards Islands....
1pm Meteo-France:
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[CronkPSU]

Blue Man Group looking good!

are you seeing them at Universal Orlando? Great show, well worth the price of admission!

[Emmett_Brown]

Shear should be lessening over the next 24-48 hours in the E Carribean. Then increases again toward the central Carribean:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Looks much better today. A couple notable storms took hold just as they approached the islands this year... will it happen again?

[gatorcane]

its continuing to organize today it looks like as it moves NW.

GFDL predicted NW with depression forming in 24-48 hours. Looks like it is right on track.

[chadtm80]

[gatorcane]

Shear should be lessening over the next 24-48 hours in the E Carribean. Then increases again toward the central Carribean:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Looks much better today. A couple notable storms took hold just as they approached the islands this year... will it happen again?

Note it looks like it won't be going through the central caribbean --- if you go with the global models (and not BAMS)

[MWatkins]

Blue Man Group looking good!

are you seeing them at Universal Orlando? Great show, well worth the price of admission!

Sure am...we are staying at the Hard Rock Friday night...so express passes for Universal both Fri and Sat as well. Really looking forward to it.

Hopefully this system continues to cooperate...don't want to be distracted by a tropical system milling around in the Caribbean/Bahamas.

MW

[gatorcane]

Clearly Florida needs to hope this one fizzles

[DESTRUCTION5]

Blue Man Group looking good!

are you seeing them at Universal Orlando? Great show, well worth the price of admission!

Sure am...we are staying at the Hard Rock Friday night...so express passes for Universal both Fri and Sat as well. Really looking forward to it.

Hopefully this system continues to cooperate...don't want to be distracted by a tropical system milling around in the Caribbean/Bahamas.

MW

Better bring the Laptop MW ...Crap happens..

[cycloneye]

[MWatkins]

St Lucia and Barbados are both reporting WSW winds at 17 and 21 mph respectively. Pressures are not falling appreciably...so these westerly winds at the surface down there are probably not related to anything going on directly to the east...

MW

DISCLAIMER

This is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. This is my own personal opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Big flare up of convection over the last hour with deep reds. You can see it here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Martinique Radar



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html