Like any "hurricane tool", you can't count on the same tool getting the job every time.
The best analogy that I can give is in regards to hurricane communications, which is one of my sub-specialties. Once I'm out in the field, I have to choose which communications "tool" is appropriate to get communications through... and I carry them all onboard... including but not limited to Cellular, CB, Amatuer Radio, Satellite, and Packet Data.
It's not an "all or nothing" deal. I don't go out there thinking that either "I will" or "I won't" be able to get communications through. I pull out the best "tool" and make adjustments as necessary... whether it is antennas, location, connections, etc. While I can make pretty darn good predictions about what I will need and how I will do it, I never know for sure until I am there.
That said, I consider the models to be just another hurricane "tools". Sometimes it is the best tool and sometimes it isn't. In my opinion, most of the time it rests somewhere in between and always gives me more data to consider.
As far as 92L goes, just looking continually at the Water Vapor Loops, I would be much more surprised if something did not develop. In my opinion, this is the most ominous looking system we've had this season as a "possible" threat to the US.
So... I am not looking at these models as a simple "yes" or "no" hurricane solution.
While I believe something is going to pop out of this system, I don't think the models are going to give us their very very very best until that happens.
