OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has a closed LLC and it appears to have developed into a depression. Also it is moving west-southwestward. That is all I'm going to say.

[Frank2]

This is making me think of my comment of a few months ago, when I said that it didn't make sense for NOAA to mention a La Nina that would extend into mid-December...

Serves me right...

[Jam151]

It has a closed LLC and it appears to have developed into a depression. Also it is moving west-southwestward. That is all I'm going to say.

Or even a (sub)tropical storm. TPC is treating it as a gale (35kt+ winds).

It sort of reminds me of Tammy in 2005.

[Evil Jeremy]

I still do not see any WSW movement. If anything, it is still moving WNW. It also looks like the mid level center started to separate, but it is now re centering and is being surrounded by convection.

[cycloneye]

The wobble wars in December?

[Evil Jeremy]

Wobble Wars Episode V: The Storm Strikes Back

[HURAKAN]

I have seen better and I have seen worse.

[Evil Jeremy]

The center is finally back under the convection. It looks very tight with a great inflow. TD at 5 in my opinion.

[Ladybbird]

We have just received this warning in the DR, Im nervous living on the seafront

http://www2.dominicantoday.com/dr/local ... enter-says

what do you experts think?

[cycloneye]

10/1745 UTC 18.6N 63.1W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters

At hypertext link above is what Dr Jeff Masters thinks about 94L.

[Evil Jeremy]

BAMs should be coming in soon.

[Evil Jeremy]

Speaking of the devil, they just came in:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_94.gif

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

321
WHXX04 KWBC 101726
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z DEC 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 61.9 255./13.0
6 18.1 63.2 281./12.5

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[caribepr]

You know, Ladyb, I'm NOT an expert (but I do live on the water on a small island by myself, so I do have to make these sorts of decisions on occasion), but if you are really concerned, you should batten down your home and see if you can find someplace with friends to stay inland a bit. No one can tell you exactly what will happen...you need to listen to your local weather people and then decide what you feel best doing. Good luck!

[Jam151]

NRL has it back at 35kt.

[ronjon]

Looking like its wrapping up this afternoon with convection now starting to get pulled west and south of the center. I noticed the finger clouds radiating outward from the heavy convection to the north as an upper level anticyclone appears to be building over head. I believe we'll have a tropical depression soon or perhaps a jump to tropical storm status from disturbance status. Aiming for the north coast of PR as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

NRL has it back at 35kt.

That means we have to watch for 17L.OLGA, not 17L.NONAME.

Advisory would be in 90 minutes if we get a normal update.

[gatorcane]

It certainly looks like the old LLC is fizzling and is trying to form somewhere NW of the old LLC where all the convection is:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Regardless I'm noticing a W movement with WNW wobbles. Looks like it is stairstepping to me.

The tricky part with this forecast is that the shear is coming out of the S and SW...which tends to slowly push these types of systems more WNW....one example is Ernesto.

Models have a hard time with the shear not only forecasting the intensity of it but how it impacts the movement of cyclones.