CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Bgator]

I also kind of think the GFS is underdoing the intensity of Dean, and that usually means a more westerly path. So when the GFS gets the new intensity in it, it MAY change.

[Scorpion]

Doesnt make landfall in Haiti

[deltadog03]

Well, the Euro and GFS are clearly going to war on the different synoptic set ups accross the US as we get closer to a potential us strike. With that said, my money has ALWAYS been on the euro since it seems to do MUCH better specially this far out. So, does everyone discount the euro or are we just being scared of its solution?

[weatherguru18]

This thing ain't gonna go north. TWC has mentioned that the ridge over the Atlantic and the one over the SE (that is driving soon to be Erin WNW) may join up and form a type of "brick wall." This thing is destin for the gulf! If I was in Barbados or any neighboring island, I'd be up all night cutting plywood tonight.

[Blown Away]

Ivan vs Dean track:
Currently: Dean at 12N/42.3W
Ivan was close to Dean's current spot at 9.5N/43.4W and did not reach 12N until 62.6W.
Dean is expected to be near 15.0N when he reaches 62.W. I don't know if this means anything.
I bet the outcome is much different, IMO.

True, so was Hugo in 89

I would not be shocked if Dean ends up in/near Carolinas.

[Scorpion]

00z Euro will be very interesting.. staying up for it

[windstorm99]

00z Euro will be very interesting.. staying up for it

Me to.

[TropicalJon]

Looking at the begining of this run it takes TD5 pretty far south...could this run be pushing everything a little too far south?

[deltadog03]

The thing is the GFS is the ONLY global that has that ridge over the SE. I think thats a glaring ERROR

[Bgator]

I rarely listen to TWC now. I have found them uncredible. There will be a break in the High, it just depends how strong it is, and where dean is at the time.

When will the 00z Euro be out?

[jhamps10]

Doesnt make landfall in Haiti

Right, wierd, GFS has it turning more NW towards Haiti, then at the last second looks like it's turning it west and misses the Island.

also however this run could be suspect with a possible center reformation to the north talked about in other thread.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00z Euro will be very interesting.. staying up for it

?Que Tiempo"

[Steve]

>>I would not be shocked if Dean ends up in/near Carolinas.

Nobody should be IMHO. Dean's a case study for all of us amateurs and pros alike. I had an early call on 91L that is probably going to turn out pretty well, but I wouldn't touch Dean for at least another 3 or 4 days. Everyone and noone is in danger, and anything is possible.

Steve

[Scorpion]

Around 3-3:30

[windstorm99]

Bien tarde...

[canetracker]

132 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_132l.gif
132 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_132l.gif


138 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_138l.gif
138 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_138l.gif

[weatherguru18]

I'll wait until I see the new runs. I think Dean will bypass the trough digging down the east coast. It's heading for the GULF!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Around 3-3:30

LMAO..Not me...

[Bgator]

It kinda looks like Dean is moving a bit north of due west. Kinda looks like a 275-280, but its hard to tell for me on the IR.

[Derek Ortt]

I do discount the EURO

I do not understand why many view it as the best model. It is great for medium range midlatitude weather, but the tropics are a different story

It is worth noting, that it is NOT in the CONU