TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[x-y-no]

On a tutt fueling a storm i can't point to any one example like i say its just something i read on another weather forum.

It can happen if the TUTT is positioned to ventilate the storm. But not if the storm is plowing straight through it (as in this case).

[Derek Ortt]

those storms were more resiliant because the atmosphere allowed them to be

They are not more resiliant, other atmospheric parameters were quite favorable

and Vince and Epsilon are AWFUL examples, they quickly folded up the tent once the shear increased, and gabrielle did nothing until the shear remained. Baroclinic dynamics allowed it to sustain itself when it was being sheared

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure that is scientifically correct. I've seen systems of generally equal shape and size, along with pressure, windspeed etc fight shear and win and some die. Equal in all measures, yet some fight the shear and overcome it and some don't. I'm sure this could be shown in a study.

The surrounding baroclinic support would have to be shown. (Not challenging it, just saying)

[Derek Ortt]

those storms are not even close to equal Sanibel

There are plenty of other atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic factors that allow for some storms to overcome shear

Furthermore, some storms that are sheared are also sheared at mid levels

[skysummit]

I'm not sure that is scientifically correct. I've seen systems of generally equal shape and size, along with pressure, windspeed etc fight shear and win and some die. Equal in all measures, yet some fight the shear and overcome it and some don't. I'm sure this could be shown in a study.

I agree. The complete dynamics of a tropical cyclone are still not fully understood yet. If they were, we'd know everything about them. So to say that some can withstand shear more while others just die off is a legitimate statement IMO.

[HURAKAN]

I never found a problem calling Dean, "Dean the Mean" or "Mean Dean," or "Dennis the Menace" or "Ivan the Terrible," or "that hurricane is looking right at me." Is there a problem with giving storms human-like attitudes? We all know hurricanes can't think for themselves, or prepare an attack or anything like that, but I think it's just a way to make this phenomena of Mother Nature easier to correlate and understand. I don't see it as anything wrong.

Going back to Ingrid. About its future, that I will answere it in 3 to 5 days!!!! I need time to think.

[Sanibel]

I agree with Derek. The best way to show this would be through some animated graphic that would highlight and color each factor, including baroclinic forces, and show them in comparison on all axis'.

[artist]

they are a force of nature that we don't know everything about, thus why seemingly the same type conditions wil play out differently in 2 different storms and the reason we can't predict totally accurately sometimes even to the last minute - such as with Humberto.

[bwhorton2007]

Boy i sure brought some life back to this thread and if i upset someone i am sorry but i'm not
going to change my view or opinion.

[skysummit]

Well, the NHC is quite confident that Ingrid will remain out to sea and weaken according to their 5pm advisory. I get the feeling most attention will turn toward the southern Caribbean now next week.

[Cyclenall]

If the TUTT was not there, what do you think the conditions would have been like? Is that too complex to answer or not?

[cycloneye]

. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY
WEAKEN INGRID.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


From 5 PM Discussion.

[bwhorton2007]

Yes in all odds it will likely weaken but doesn't forecaster Avila's words make you a little concerned that this storm may not play by the rules?

[Fego]

We are free to use language tools like metaphors, when our creativity impulse us to express something about a system. It's clear that Ingrid is not human, but hey, affirm that some readers could misunderstand a concept, or develope a wrong idea about Storm2k, because they read a phrase like "Ingrid the Figther", ummm, nope. I don't think so. There's nothing to be upset about.

[BigA]

I think a lot of this personification is simply a result of the fact that hurricanes have human names, and therefore we tend to attribute human traits to them.

Think about it this way. I've never really seen someone in the wintertime when there was powerful low "bombing out" off the New Jersey coast saying "This Noreaster is going to fight," or something to that effect. However, because hurricanes have names, they become more than atmospheric phenomena; they gain personalities, and sometimes we even gain attachment to them.

This is merely my opinion.

[dizzyfish]

Thanks for posting that part of the 5pm disco. Sounds like they are wondering about the models too. Confounded things!

BTW it seems to me to be human nature to assign personal attributes to "things".
Seen it done many times concerning many things. Just the way people are.

Sorry - back on topic.

[BigA]

I want to preface this by saying that I have no real weather expertise, and this is just from looking at shear forecasts

I actually see one path that Ingrid could take that would allow it to survive the worst of the shear, that path being a northwest track well east of the islands. It seems that if it follows that, it will avoid the worst of the shear, and head toward an area favorable enough for it to survive. After that point, I dont feel qualified to predict whether it will bend back west.

Sources for my prognostication: http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[HURAKAN]

PLEASE, BACK ON TOPIC: INGRID!



I think it's possible that the RECON will find a storm stronger than 40 mph. 45-50 mph, I'm gussing based on satellite images.

[bwhorton2007]

Wow look at that blowup,certainly a storm that is cheating death at the moment!

[HURAKAN]

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