Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[fci]

Few comments:
- Deep easterly flow in SE FLorida is being enhanced by the gradient between the high and Dean to the south. Not sure if this is solely due to strong high pressure.

- This is shown to be at about 22 and 54 VERY far North to really come to SE Florida.

- A WNW track would bring 92L to the Carolinas which makes more climatological sense than SE Florida.

- Since Andrew, Frances and Jeanne have been mentioned, I looked up how far west they were when they were at 22N

Andrew- about 61.0
Frances- about 71.0
Jeanne-72.2

92L is at about 54!

If this initializes further south or until there is more consensus than just the CMC, there is a lot of convincing to do to get me on board a threat for SE Florida!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Few comments:
- Deep easterly flow in SE FLorida is being enhanced by the gradient between the high and Dean to the south. Not sure if this is solely due to strong high pressure.

- This is shown to be at about 22 and 54 VERY far North to really come to SE Florida.

- A WNW track would bring 92L to the Carolinas which makes more climatological sense than SE Florida.

- Since Andrew, Frances and Jeanne have been mentioned, I looked up how far west they were when they were at 22N

Andrew- about 61.0
Frances- about 71.0
Jeanne-72.2

92L is at about 54!

If this initializes further south or until there is more consensus than just the CMC, there is a lot of convincing to do to get me on board a threat for SE Florida!!!

I have 2 words for you...SEE DEAN

[chadtm80]

[RL3AO]

WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.
//

[tolakram]

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.

Shirley they must be wrong.

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters...

New disturbance 92L to watch
There is an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands. NHC has labeled this system "Invest 92L" this morning. Wind shear is about 10 knots in this region, which is low enough to allow some development over the next few days. This area is moving west-northwest, and will be near the U.S. East coast late this week. The next trough of low pressure strong enough to recurve this system is not due until Saturday, so this system will definitely be a threat to the U.S. if it develops. A QuikSCAT pass from 5:25am this morning shows no signs of a surface circulation, but plenty of strong straight-line winds from the thunderstorms

[fci]

Few comments:
- Deep easterly flow in SE FLorida is being enhanced by the gradient between the high and Dean to the south. Not sure if this is solely due to strong high pressure.

- This is shown to be at about 22 and 54 VERY far North to really come to SE Florida.

- A WNW track would bring 92L to the Carolinas which makes more climatological sense than SE Florida.

- Since Andrew, Frances and Jeanne have been mentioned, I looked up how far west they were when they were at 22N

Andrew- about 61.0
Frances- about 71.0
Jeanne-72.2

92L is at about 54!

If this initializes further south or until there is more consensus than just the CMC, there is a lot of convincing to do to get me on board a threat for SE Florida!!!

I have 2 words for you...SEE DEAN

OK.
And that means?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Means we just saw a storm form at around 30 and is now headed to the BOC...All has to do with the pattern NOW not what has happened in the past..

[tgenius]

what he means is that the same high pressure pushing dean to the west is what would move this system to the west. With Dr. Jeff Masters saying a Low pressure system won't be here until Sat, the entire week with a high moving this way (with about 2000 miles to cover or less) would pose a threat to EC.

[LaBreeze]

So, are we saying that this (Felix?) will not be paying the GOM a visit?

[windstorm99]

Nothing there to turn away till saturday the earliest....

[ronjon]

Not sure what Jeff Masters is seeing on Saturday - the GFS maintains an upper level ridge over the SE US and western Atlantic at least the next 10 days. Here is the 500 mb pattern on Sunday. That little kink in the ridge off the SW coast of FL is 92L.

[windstorm99]

[Typhoon_Willie]

fci I do believe that Destruction5 means that this system will go west for quite some time...some of the local meteorologists in So Fla think so as well siting that there will be no trough to pick this thing up for a while. And yes a N Carolina S Carolina move would make more sense but Fla cannot be discarded quite as of yet. Just being cautious until a definte pattern of movement is made.

[destruction92]

This definitely appears to be a Carolina threat from the looks of this map and its current heading in a WNWesterly fashion.

[skysummit]

Destruction....that's not a forecast track. It's an alert of an area to watch for TC development.

[destruction92]

Destruction....that's not a forecast track. It's an alert of an area to watch for TC development.

It looks like a projected path or at least an extrapolated path. Why did they decide to include a line in the middle of that pink rectangular box...it will confuse people and make some people think that it is a projected path.

[cycloneye]

WTNT02 KNGU 201600Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 201600Z AUG 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.3N 54.7W TO 27.0N 65.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 54.7W HAS FORMED
BENEATH INTENSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009MB.
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL DISORGANZIED.
HOWEVER, AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEAK WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOWNSTREAM, TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ENHANCED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211600Z.
//

[fci]

fci I do believe that Destruction5 means that this system will go west for quite some time...some of the local meteorologists in So Fla think so as well siting that there will be no trough to pick this thing up for a while. And yes a N Carolina S Carolina move would make more sense but Fla cannot be discarded quite as of yet. Just being cautious until a definte pattern of movement is made.

VERY, very valid reasoning by you and others.

I just find it so unlikely that a system would strenghten to a Storm and travel due west from this location to threaten South Florida
Don't think it has happened before.
(ALso don't think that a TD had ever strengthened over Oklahoma before until yesterday- see Erin).

[windstorm99]

The same high pressure ridge that forced Dean to stay on a westerly track, could do the same with this system.