Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Derek Ortt]

it is a non-tropical low now... it needs to acquire tropical characteristics, so Christina Abernathy is correct

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY AND
ERRATICALLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

OK, Christina was right!!!

[LarryWx]

also a carolinas threat

I agree with NC (mainly Outer Banks) still being a sig. threat. However, based on today's 12Z position being well east of some fairly recent model runs (some had the low as far west as 77-77.5 W vs, the actual of ~75.8 W), I think that the threat to SC has diminished considerably vs. how it looked yesterday. So, in my opinion, the main threat as of now is for the NC Outer Banks area as well as New England. I think that the threat to SC/GA/FL continues to drop. If the recent eastward trends continue, I feel that the threat to the Outer Banks and New England will start to drop pretty soon as well.

[Weatherfreak14]

also a carolinas threat

I agree with NC (mainly Outer Banks) still being a sig. threat. However, based on today's 12Z position being well east of some fairly recent model runs (some had the low as far west as 77-77.5 W vs, the actual of ~75.8 W), I think that the threat to SC has diminished considerably vs. how it looked yesterday. So, in my opinion, the main threat as of now is for the NC Outer Banks area as well as New England. I think that the threat to SC/GA/FL continues to drop. If the recent eastward trends continue, I feel that the threat to the Outer Banks and New England will start to drop pretty soon as well.

Not -removed- but i think SC still has a good threat as the High pressure may hold in longer than expected pushing it more west.

[wxman57]

The ECMWF develops it and moves it NW into Charleston, SC Saturday evening. It has more isobars around it than the EC predicted with Dean or Felix, but that doesn't mean it is forecasting a stronger hurricane. Could well be a hurricane threat to the Carolinas northward over the weekend. Or it could form farther offshore then move off to the north and out to sea. Something to keep a close eye on, that's for sure.

[Brent]

This area is looking quite impressive this morning... looks like it's on the way.

[BigA]

The ECMWF develops it and moves it NW into Charleston, SC Saturday evening. It has more isobars around it than the EC predicted with Dean or Felix, but that doesn't mean it is forecasting a stronger hurricane. Could well be a hurricane threat to the Carolinas northward over the weekend. Or it could form farther offshore then move off to the north and out to sea. Something to keep a close eye on, that's for sure.

This is interesting in that in the 11 years I have watched hurricanes (I started in second grade) I have never seen a hurricane threaten areas north of the Outer Banks (unless one counts Isabel, which had significant effects all the way up to Delaware Bay), although it seems to happen once ever several years. No hurricane has really threatened New England since Edouard in 1995, and none has directly impacted since Bob in 1991.

[windstorm99]

Any thoughts on how far south 99L could get?Threats to south florida seem minimal to me.Adrian

[jdray]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
MI EAST OF JACKSONVILLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY FLOW AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH DRY
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...AS SHOWN ON
SATELLITE AND BY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
INLAND GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

.FOR TODAY...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN OVERALL AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE ATLANTIC LOW. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE TROUGH AXIS
WHERE SOME MOISTURE REMAINS. A TIGHT GRADIENT...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. AIRCRAFT REPORTS FROM UPPER LEVELS APPEAR TO LINE
UP CLOSELY WITH MODEL INDICATIONS OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED JET DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS AND UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW.

.FOR TOMORROW...VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TODAY.
BAROCLINIC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
WITH UPPER HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHEAST. JET WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
NOT MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOW WILL TAKE PLACE FOR A DAY OR TWO.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH MINIMAL POPS ONCE AGAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE CHANCE AT
HYBRID BAROCLINIC/TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BY LATE WEEK AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM AND FLOW ALOFT
WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PATTERN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS MUCH DEPENDS ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. NO STRONG SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KICK OUT THIS
LOW...WHILE MOST EXTENDED MODELS DRIFT IT WESTWARD BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GFS
SEEMS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ABSORBING THE ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND BRINGING
IT NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO LEAD TO A MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[punkyg]

Where is the low and is it exposed or under the convection.

[Epsilon_Fan]

keeping an eye on this one...

[HURAKAN]

Where is the low and is it exposed or under the convection.

Loops indicate it's under the convection or maybe partially exposed.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html

Looking really good. I see this one developing very soon.

[terstorm1012]

The ECMWF develops it and moves it NW into Charleston, SC Saturday evening. It has more isobars around it than the EC predicted with Dean or Felix, but that doesn't mean it is forecasting a stronger hurricane. Could well be a hurricane threat to the Carolinas northward over the weekend. Or it could form farther offshore then move off to the north and out to sea. Something to keep a close eye on, that's for sure.

This is interesting in that in the 11 years I have watched hurricanes (I started in second grade) I have never seen a hurricane threaten areas north of the Outer Banks (unless one counts Isabel, which had significant effects all the way up to Delaware Bay), although it seems to happen once ever several years. No hurricane has really threatened New England since Edouard in 1995, and none has directly impacted since Bob in 1991.

Floyd (1999) was a hurricane all the way to Cape Henlopen, DE. But you're right, it's been awhile (not to say we're overdue...no such thing as overdue in statistics--there's a great thread on this in the other forum.)

[seaswing]

looking impressive this morning. Very BIG!

[Coredesat]

The circulation center looks to be around 30N 75W based on the loop, though it's still so broad that I might be wrong.

[fci]

keeping an eye on this one...

If I were in North Carolina and northward on the Eastern Seaboard I would pay attention to this one.
If the shear doesn't get it or something shoot it out NE, it is a definite threat.
Here in South Florida I am not particuarly concerned as the climitalogical solution is towards the outerbanks and areas North or out to sea and I usually rely on the "usual" solution until something VERY compelling tells me to think otherwise.

[cpdaman]

the question i have is is this acquiring SUB tropical charactericstics

and also has there ever been a subtropical storm with hurricane force winds?

i think we are looking at a STD

[WmE]

the question i have is is this acquiring SUB tropical charactericstics

and also has there ever been a subtropical storm with hurricane force winds?

i think we are looking at a STD

I think subtropical strom with hurricane force winds would be a hurricane. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[x-y-no]

The ECMWF develops it and moves it NW into Charleston, SC Saturday evening. It has more isobars around it than the EC predicted with Dean or Felix, but that doesn't mean it is forecasting a stronger hurricane. Could well be a hurricane threat to the Carolinas northward over the weekend. Or it could form farther offshore then move off to the north and out to sea. Something to keep a close eye on, that's for sure.

Yeah, the fact that a model other than the CMC deepens it that much definitely has my attention.