Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[vacanechaser]

90 hours

Just off OuterBanks.

close enough to be a problem.. just go and look at our hurricane alex video and photos to see what i mean... that is of course if this gets strong enough.... which i believe it will do with time... gfs seems to be showing a stronger system than before...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

102 hours

After that encounter with outerbanks it goes out to sea.

Yeah Jesse too close for confort for that area.

[vacanechaser]

102 hours

After that encounter with outerbanks it goes out to sea.

Yeah Jesse too close for confort for that area.

this looks suspect to me though.. notice the 2 images.. the ridge strong in the first image, then in the second image, the ridge dissappears to the west of the system and wraps around to shoot it out....







that is a time frame of just 6 hours... just looks odd to me...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

126 hours

It continues out to sea without going to New England.

[HurricaneBelle]

126 hours

It continues out to sea without going to New England.

And one would think it would scoot out to sea thereafter, but it seems to stall out in the 132-174 hr range at around 40N, 63W, before it starts to lift N or NNE toward Nova Scotia.

[Steve H.]

NOGAPS at 12z still has it approaching GA/SC border....

[cycloneye]

12z CMC animation

Landfall near GA/SC border.

[Marilyn]

I had looked at the models this morning late morning and 4 out of 6 shows a GA /SC landfall The ones i looked at were Cmc Gfdl Gfs Fsumm5 ,Nogap, and Ukmet which one of these should we go by ?

[ronjon]

Most of the models that take it to the GA/SC border area only recurve it N-NW very close to the coast. In fact, most take a hurricane to 30N-80W which is uncomfortablely close to JAX-St Aug. I'm starting to wonder if we will see any further westward shifts to the track. The latest CMC really stalls this storm out after initial LF and very slowly rides it up the coast to NC - could be a huge rainmaker if that pans out.

[seaswing]

Most of the models that take it to the GA/SC border area only recurve it N-NW very close to the coast. In fact, most take a hurricane to 30N-80W which is uncomfortablely close to JAX-St Aug. I'm starting to wonder if we will see any further westward shifts to the track. The latest CMC really stalls this storm out after initial LF and very slowly rides it up the coast to NC - could be a huge rainmaker if that pans out.

hmmmm.... Jax hasn't seen a hurricane in a long time!

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 051721

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L



INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 29.0 71.6 95./ 8.0

6 29.5 70.5 67./10.6

12 29.9 69.7 64./ 7.8

18 30.0 69.4 65./ 3.1

24 30.4 69.3 24./ 3.9

30 30.5 69.9 282./ 5.5

36 30.4 70.7 266./ 6.7

42 30.4 71.9 268./11.1

48 30.2 73.4 264./12.5

54 30.1 74.2 259./ 7.1

60 30.3 74.8 290./ 5.8

66 30.8 75.3 313./ 6.4

72 31.5 75.9 320./ 9.3

78 32.4 76.6 321./10.0

84 32.9 77.2 316./ 7.1

90 33.8 77.2 354./ 8.3

96 34.8 77.3 359./10.1

102 35.5 77.0 19./ 7.7

108 36.3 76.3 40./10.0

114 36.9 75.6 51./ 8.6

120 37.5 74.7 56./ 8.7

126 38.0 73.7 63./ 9.7



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt


12z GFDL has landfall in NC.Initial position is almost where it is now.

[seaswing]

So many models. so many differences in opinions

[Lowpressure]

Most of the models that take it to the GA/SC border area only recurve it N-NW very close to the coast. In fact, most take a hurricane to 30N-80W which is uncomfortablely close to JAX-St Aug. I'm starting to wonder if we will see any further westward shifts to the track. The latest CMC really stalls this storm out after initial LF and very slowly rides it up the coast to NC - could be a huge rainmaker if that pans out.

hmmmm.... Jax hasn't seen a hurricane in a long time!

Last direct hit DORA 1964.

[wxman57]

this looks suspect to me though.. notice the 2 images.. the ridge strong in the first image, then in the second image, the ridge dissappears to the west of the system and wraps around to shoot it out....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_066m.gif

that is a time frame of just 6 hours... just looks odd to me...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Jesse, I see nothing strange. Take a close look at the 2nd image. What you see is not the ridge wrapping around, it's the 5880 meter contour line around the low opening up. There's another 5880 m contour line still to the northwest. So it's just the 500mb low no longer closed.

[LarryWx]

WHXX04 KWBC 051721
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L
INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 5

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.0 [b] 71.6 95./ 8.0
6 29.5 70.5 67./10.6
12 29.9 69.7 64./ 7.8
18 30.0 69.4 65./ 3.1
24 30.4 69.3 24./ 3.9
30 30.5 69.9 282./ 5.5
36 30.4 70.7 266./ 6.7
42 30.4 71.9 268./11.1
48 30.2 73.4 264./12.5
54 30.1 74.2 259./ 7.1
60 30.3 74.8 290./ 5.8
66 30.8 75.3 313./ 6.4
72 31.5 75.9 320./ 9.3
78 32.4 76.6 321./10.0
84 32.9 77.2 316./ 7.1
90 33.8 77.2 354./ 8.3
96 34.8 77.3 359./10.1
[/b]
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... r/gfdl.txt

12z GFDL has landfall in NC.Initial position is almost where it is now.

Luis' last statement is a great observation imho and very pertinent! The initialized 12Z GFDL longitude as of 12Z today is 71.6 W, which appears to be almost perfect. Therefore, this run has lots of credibility imho as of now. It now moves it to as far east as 69.3 W (12Z Thu). Due to this pretty far east position, which is realistic to me based on the nice initialization, it gets the storm only back as far west as 77.3 W (NC).

Now, I'll compare this to some other 12Z models:

1) GFS had good initialization and only gets it back to NC.

2) Canadian had a poor initialization of a too far west 73 W. Due to this, it only gets as far east as ~72.3 W (0Z Thu), which allows it to come back all the way to near the GA/SC border.

3) NOGAPS had a very poor initialization of a much too far west 74 W. Due to this, it only gets as far east as ~72 W (12Z Thu), which allows it to come back all the way to near Charleston.

Summary for these 12Z models: GFS/GFDL had best initialization and, therefore, avoid SC/GA.
CDN/NOGAPS had too far west initialization, which allows GA/SC border and Charleston hits. I think the pattern is pretty clear and, therefore, continue to favor NC for a hit, assuming any of the SE is directly hit.

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL does not even really start to intensify this until tomorrow afternoon

probably means another day of "it's dying" posts

This is despite the fact it has landfall with a pressure of 967mb

[vacanechaser]

GFDL does not even really start to intensify this until tomorrow afternoon

probably means another day of "it's dying" posts

This is despite the fact it has landfall with a pressure of 967mb

God, you could not be more right about that!!! lol.. qwe will hear it for atleast another 24hrs...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cycloneye]

Larry,you can add UKMET to the poor initial position run.Very far west.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.7N 74.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.09.2007 28.7N 74.1W WEAK

00UTC 08.09.2007 29.3N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2007 30.3N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2007 31.2N 78.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.09.2007 32.5N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.09.2007 33.9N 79.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2007 34.7N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Animation



I wont tell how strong GFDL has this.Look for yourself at the animation.

[Stormcenter]

No disrespect to the ProMets and whomever else believes this will become a Cat.2-3
hurricane but I need to see it (967 pressure)before I believe it. Thunderstorm tops are still being sheared severely to the NE while it moves eastward. In time though if the environment improves as predicted a Cat.1 hurricane is possible. It has been awhile since
the East coast had a serious tropical threat so it wouldn't or shouldn't be a surprise.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html