Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[Air Force Met]

FYI, I'm measuring a 1 hr movement of 10.9 miles at 25.8 degrees. That's NNE. Shouldn't use such a short-term movement for a projected track, though. Let's see if it really has made a turn to the north or NNE over the next 3-6 hours. Probably just a short term wobble.

That wouldn't get a true reading. I see it going North a tap but with my eyes I didn't see the NNE. Not saying it's. I just could see it.

I see it...don't think it will last but it is drifting off to the NNE-NE right now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[storms in NC]

FYI, I'm measuring a 1 hr movement of 10.9 miles at 25.8 degrees. That's NNE. Shouldn't use such a short-term movement for a projected track, though. Let's see if it really has made a turn to the north or NNE over the next 3-6 hours. Probably just a short term wobble. At 16Z, the center was near 31.3N/74.1W. At 15Z, center was near 31.2N/74.2W. I'm using real positions with high-res satellite, not the NHC forecasted 15Z position.

Looks like I'm going to have to adjust my next forecast farther east. What a waste of (my) time storm. I could be outside doing something fun today...

Okay just seen your NNE jog. It is hard to say what is going to happen. I am out of here going to a fair type thing in Richlands

[emeraldislencguy]

a great day at emerld isle--looks like it now may slide north past us--we sure could have used the rain--ill keep in touoch.

[gatorcane]

All,

just something to think about. Looks like this system is going to wrap around the ridge that is moving off the E Coast of the US.....

and lookie what is brewing E of the Leewards and is heading W to WNW. Yep its 98L and its back...I looked at the steering currents and it looks like once Gabrielle moves out....could 98L have a direct path towards the Bahamas/SE US...?

looks like the Atlantic switch is ON to me....

Image showing Gabrielle and the area E of the Leeward islands...

[Thunder44]

FYI, I'm measuring a 1 hr movement of 10.9 miles at 25.8 degrees. That's NNE. Shouldn't use such a short-term movement for a projected track, though. Let's see if it really has made a turn to the north or NNE over the next 3-6 hours. Probably just a short term wobble.

That wouldn't get a true reading. I see it going North a tap but with my eyes I didn't see the NNE. Not saying it's. I just could see it.

I see it...don't think it will last but it is drifting off to the NNE-NE right now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I see it but that last frame show a back to NW heading. Notice the convection blow-up north of center, may be trying to loop it back in under.

[Air Force Met]

I see it but that last frame show a back to NW heading. Notice the convection blow-up north of center, may be trying to loop it back in under.

I just refreshed it and the last image at 1632Z shows it still drifting NNE.

[wxman57]

Just got a vortex message from the recon. I plotted the vortex location on the satellite image below. The vortex message was taken at 1622Z, satellite at 1632Z. Note the big difference in location of the satellite center with the vortex (20 miles).

[Frank2]

Re: thunder44's post

Yes, I'm happy to say that the NHC once again held steady and stayed with their initial forecast (wish I had - as far as my initial feelings were concerned)...

That AW fella should consider this, the next time he begins to grumble about the NHC's performance...

Also, that early-evening gal on TWC needs to tone down her dramatics - the public has enough dramatics to deal with, every time they turn on the news - imagined weather dramatics only add to the stress...

[gatorcane]

Re: thunder44's post

Yes, I'm happy to say that the NHC once again held steady and stayed with their initial forecast (wish I had - as far as my initial feelings were concerned)...

That AW fella should consider this, the next time he begins to grumble about the NHC's performance...

Also, that early-evening gal on TWC needs to tone down her dramatics - the public has enough dramatics to deal with, every time they turn on the news - imagined weather dramatics only add to the stress...

yes what's funny is that it is subtropical. Imagine when a real system heads towards the US.

I don't consider this a "real system" yet...just a subtropical system with some gale force winds.

[brunota2003]

Why such a large difference? I take it the mid level and low level centers have been sheared apart basically?

[wxman57]

I see it but that last frame show a back to NW heading. Notice the convection blow-up north of center, may be trying to loop it back in under.

I just refreshed it and the last image at 1632Z shows it still drifting NNE.

From 1532Z-1632Z I get 11.4 miles at about 5 degrees. Definitely wobbling northward. It also looks like the center is elongating from NW-SE.

[wxman57]

Why such a large difference? I take it the mid level and low level centers have been sheared apart basically?

That would be quite a tilt of 20 miles over 1500 ft. Perhaps the plane just missed the center. It's not as easy when there are only a couple of radar echoes around the weak exposed LLC, I guess. This is one reason why you shouldn't use individual vortex messages to estimate movement.

[Thunder44]

I see it but that last frame show a back to NW heading. Notice the convection blow-up north of center, may be trying to loop it back in under.

I just refreshed it and the last image at 1632Z shows it still drifting NNE.

From 1532Z-1632Z I get 11.4 miles at about 5 degrees. Definitely wobbling northward. It also looks like the center is elongating from NW-SE.

That what I began to see. That why I think it's going to back NW very soon.

[cpdaman]

as this storm turns northward the relative shear will decrease and it will intensify IMO

too bad the only one's who will notice are some mid atlantic surfers and fish

did someone say 98L is back (c'mon)

[gatorcane]

as this storm turns northward the relative shear will decrease and it will intensify IMO

too bad the only one's who will notice are some mid atlantic surfers and fish

did someone say 98L is back (c'mon)

it is back -- check it out..I think it will be the next thing this board will be all over...IMHO

[artist]

Pros's or anyone with the knowledge -one thing I have never seen mentioned when we are following a storm regarding satellite. Since the earth moves and the satellite moves they are not in tandem with one another, therefore wouldn't it hold true that at different times of the day there is a tilt of the image we are getting thus creating an illusion to where the actual center of a storm could be? Did I make sense?

[wxman57]

as this storm turns northward the relative shear will decrease and it will intensify IMO

too bad the only one's who will notice are some mid atlantic surfers and fish

did someone say 98L is back (c'mon)

it is back -- check it out..I think it will be the next thing this board will be all over...IMHO

98L is NOT back. What you're looking at is the wave that moved off the west coast of Africa 3-4 days after 98L. Something to watch, anyway.

[wxman57]

Pros's or anyone with the knowledge -one thing I have never seen mentioned when we are following a storm regarding satellite. Since the earth moves and the satellite moves they are not in tandem with one another, therefore wouldn't it hold true that at different times of the day there is a tilt of the image we are getting thus creating an illusion to where the actual center of a storm could be? Did I make sense?

The satellite is hovering over the same point on the equator. In this case, it's about 30 degrees south of Gabrielle. The way to visualize this is to imagine a cone (an ice cream cone!) with the point where a hurricane's LLC is. Put the point of the empty ice cream cone on the map and tilt the top toward your eye. This is what the satellite would see if it was directly over the storm. Now tilt the cone 30 degrees away from you and the top circle of the cone appears to shift to the north. This is why you don't estimate the center of a hurricane to be directly in the center of the eye (as seen by satellite). The center may be new the lower (southern) part of the eye.

But when you're looking at a satellite image of Gabrielle, the tops of the clouds are only a few thousand feet above the water, not 10 miles above the surface, so the satellite center is just about exactly where the surface center would be.

[Frank2]

Pros's or anyone with the knowledge -one thing I have never seen mentioned when we are following a storm regarding satellite. Since the earth moves and the satellite moves they are not in tandem with one another, therefore wouldn't it hold true that at different times of the day there is a tilt of the image we are getting thus creating an illusion to where the actual center of a storm could be? Did I make sense?

I'll take a crack and answer that (my foot is at the ready - lol)...

Since the satellites used in this case are geostationary (the satellite's height above the Earth, allows the satellite to be at the exact same rotational speed as the Earth, so, it appears that it is stationary) that would not be an issue, usually, but, as for the illusion - aside from any gyroscope or thruster issues with the satellite (it sometimes happens - one time, I forget which NOAA satellite, but, it's positional problems were so severe, that one day we could see the moon in a photograph!), the angle of the sun can often make the system appear different, depending on the time of day...

Glad I'm wearing a new pair of sneakers...

LOL

P.S. Oops - didn't mean to step on you, wxman (I need to type faster)...

[HURAKAN]

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