OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

NRL has it back at 35kt.

That means we have to watch for 17L.OLGA, not 17L.NONAME.

Advisory would be in 90 minutes if we get a normal update.

Ah, I forgot that the advisory is coming out an hour earlier now since DST is over with.

[Squarethecircle]

Has anyone seen the HWRF? It favors a tropical storm moving through Puerto Rico, then to the DR, and weakening to a tropical depression before heading towards Honduras.


Also, the GFDL run just seems to lose track of the storm, which it has done a lot, instead of actually killing it.

[gatorcane]

basically if we look at the last 6+ hours I see an initial WSW movement and now it has veered to more of a West with some brief WNW wobbles....

overall looks like it is moving west....

[Evil Jeremy]

After relooking the most recent GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS runs, they all show a front that would theoretically pick up what is left of 94L at the end of their runs.

[cycloneye]

Long Range San Juan Radar

I see more than one circulation in the long range.I am in the middle of a squall as I type.

Going to shut PC down until it passes.

[Evil Jeremy]

"Invest 94L Threat Zone" topic anyone?

[ronjon]

After relooking the most recent GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS runs, they all show a front that would theoretically pick up what is left of 94L at the end of their runs.

Yeah, 12Z Euro shows a strong 500 mb trough digging down to the north-central gulf coast by Sunday morning. If whatever's left of this disturbance isn't too far south by then, its likely to get picked up by this trough.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007121012!!/

[gatorcane]

Long Range San Juan Radar

I see more than one circulation in the long range.I am in the middle of a squall as I type.

Going to shut PC down until it passes.

Yes there is more one circulation....as is typical for a disorganized and/or developing cyclone...

I would love to get some of those squalls with winds below 50mph...

[wxman57]

Latest satellite & sfc analysis indicates two possible centers. One is to the south very near St. Croix. That's pretty clear on surface obs. The second center apparent on satellite imagery farther north may be above the surface. I see no surface obs that indicate a center farther north closer to the convection. Wind shear definitely will be on the increase over the next 24-48 hours.

Does the NHC issue advisories per GMT or EST? I thought that they still issued advisories according to EST (by 5PM local time) vs. an hour earlier during DST? In either case, this doesn't qualify as a TD yet. I'm not convinced that "LLC" we all see on satellite is actually at the surface.

[wxman57]

Long Range San Juan Radar

I see more than one circulation in the long range.I am in the middle of a squall as I type.

Going to shut PC down until it passes.

Don't forget, you're looking at upper-level movements on San Juan radar. At a distance of 160nm, the radar beam's center is over 27,000 feet above the water. See this beam height calculator:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html

[cpdaman]

what winds are we talking effecting puerto rico ? my guess would be "cold front winds"

so i guess the biggest threat at least for puerto rico/ hispanola is rains

and to the florida tropical crazy's: how bout a track wsw toward jamaica and then it if has enough latitude to escape honduras perhaps the trough can pick it up and give you some rain and "excitement" of course this is not probable, but as aric dunn used to say " it has a chance"

[HURAKAN]

There seemed to be a ship report of 35 knots.

SHIP S 1900 20.40 -59.20 179 62 90 36.9 - 16.4 6.0 - - 30.02 -0.15 75.2 80.6

[P.K.]

Does the NHC issue advisories per GMT or EST? I thought that they still issued advisories according to EST (by 5PM local time) vs. an hour earlier during DST?

Advisories are always 3 hours after the analysis time which is the same all year round.

[cycloneye]

what winds are we talking effecting puerto rico ? my guess would be "cold front winds"

so i guess the biggest threat at least for puerto rico/ hispanola is rains

and to the florida tropical crazy's: how bout a track wsw toward jamaica and then it if has enough latitude to escape honduras perhaps the trough can pick it up and give you some rain and "excitement" of course this is not probable, but as aric dunn used to say " it has a chance"

Well,I am back on-line after a squall moved rapidly thru San Juan.My anemometer got a max gust of 33 mph from this.We have been experiencing today some rainbands and the more stronger ones haved been in the range of 30-35 mph.

[HURAKAN]

750
NOUS42 KNHC 102030 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0330 PM EST MON 10 DEC 2007
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z DEC 2007
WSPOD NUMBER.....07-010 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: (ADDED) TROPICAL CYCLONE REQUIREMENTS...A RESOURCES
PERMITTING LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO A SUSPECT AREA NEAR
HISPANIOLA:
FLIGHT ONE--TEAL 70
A. 11/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 11/1530Z
D. 18.5N 68.0W
E. 11/1500Z TO 11/1830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
SEF

[Frank2]

I was going to joke about "inside information", but, it's seems likely that the NHC will have to start writing advisories on this in the near future, even if it is a short-lived system...

[Evil Jeremy]

5PM My guess. If not 5, then by 11PM.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 102043
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 PM AST MON DEC 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS... MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
SQUALLS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... WHILE VERY
ROUGH AND HIGH SEAS WITH NUMEROUS SQUALLS AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN A FRESH TO STRONG WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED AT AROUND
130 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF THE CENTER LOW...ONLY PRODUCING QUICK
PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE USVI...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. AS THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY START TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE MORE FREQUENT AND
MORE INTENSE BANDS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THESE BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLANDS. THE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND BRUSH THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THEREFORE EXPECT SHOWERS
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS AS WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY AS AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH BRIEF IFR OR EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN IMPROVING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...AND THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND EXPECTED WEATHER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ROUGH PAST SEVERAL DAYS...
AND WITH INCREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...SEAS
WILL BUILD FURTHER...IN A MIX OF NE SWELL AND LARGE STEEP WIND
WAVES.

[RL3AO]

I'm still not convinced there is a closed, low level circulation. Unless I am missing something (feel free to prove me wrong, I've been gone all day).

[btangy]

There are several factors that argue against classifying this as a depression anytime soon. The first is that there's a big upper level low spinning over the system now, and it is likely that if one were to sample the vertical temperature profile, there would be a shallow warm core above a more dominant cold core. The second is that there isn't deep convection surrounding the center of circulation. It seems that the NHC really likes to see convection surround most of the center of circulation for 6-12 hours, even for subtropical systems, before initiating advisories unless there is aircraft data to supplement satellite obs. The third is that given recent press coverage of the NHC inflating storm numbers, there might be a subconscious current to not name this system for fear that it will release the press hounds again.