Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[NcentralFlaguy]

insanity on the message boards!!!!lol thank god for the occasional voise of reason from a pro met or two, otherwise it would be a full blown cat 5 supertornadocane headed straight at Miami...lol ok seriously though the storm is about to re-emerge into the caribbean, I know I said that 8 hours ago, but this time...I mean it,lol.

[sfwx]

Hey guys...let me chime in here with a couple of observations. I would have posted sooner but I have been deployed dealing with California wildfires.

I can tell by reading the posts that the "concern" by some here for where this is going is really a desire to get this thing close to you (let's not kid anyone) This isn't going to be a bad storm by any stretch of the imagination unless you a foolish enough to go into the surf and get caught in a rip current. Given your lack of rain...and the fact it won't be bad...I'd be wanting it too.

Here's the "good" news. You are going to "get" it...at least wind wise...and it really doesn't matter where the center goes...so all this focus on it's gonna turn...it's not gonna turn...it's here...it's there...is really just fun discussion but in the long run the results are really the same. Why? The pressure gradient is what is going to cause most of the wind on the west side of this thing, not convective bands. As wxman said...there will be a wall there...a wall of shear in the upper levels at least....and a wall of dry (drier) air. That will limit convection on the west side.

So I am sorry you won't get that much rain...but for those who want the TS force winds (you know who you are... )...you should get it on the coast due to the high to the north and the low with Noel...regardless of where it goes. Matter of fact...if you want a good strong wind...you actually should be rooting for it to move away from you a little (where ever you are)...because by the time I think the center gets to FL or off the coast...I think the center will be a little broad.

That is all...continue with the previous bickering on where it really is and where it is going.

Just in case you missed this informative post by AFM earlier, here it is. A lot of the students were all excited today because there was talk of shutting schools down if the winds get over 40 mph because of the busses. I had to break it to them that there will be school tomorrow. ( I hate to make up the days anyway.) Sorry guys, this is going to create a blustery day and be a beach problem. I truly don't see what all the hype is about. It is about as bad as Ernesto. If people hear about a "Gale Warning" they'll figure it out real quick. No need for a Tropical Storm Watch/ Warning at this time. It makes for a lot of "what ifs" though doesn't it? Listen to what the Pro Mets are saying very carefully.

Eric

[Derek Ortt]

because the winds over the water are greater than those over land. The Gale Warning is appropriately issued

If you are not treating a gale warning as a low end TS warning... well... not anything I can say to you. All products say both mean a warning for winds over 40 mph.

As for no TS watch, how can you have a TS WATCH and a Gale WARNING. You are saying that 35KT winds are possible within 36 hours at one point an expected within 24 at another. That would be horribly confusing

Besides, a TS watch is utterly pointless. You do not even need to make major preparations (be prepared for about 48 hours without power). Mainly just buy a day's worth of food (which is what I bought) and clean up the lawn furnature. That can be done within 9-12 hours, and that is all the lead time needed for a TS. We don't need a watch 36 hours in advance for 40 mph winds

[destruction92]

Hey guys...let me chime in here with a couple of observations. I would have posted sooner but I have been deployed dealing with California wildfires.

I can tell by reading the posts that the "concern" by some here for where this is going is really a desire to get this thing close to you (let's not kid anyone) This isn't going to be a bad storm by any stretch of the imagination unless you a foolish enough to go into the surf and get caught in a rip current. Given your lack of rain...and the fact it won't be bad...I'd be wanting it too.

Here's the "good" news. You are going to "get" it...at least wind wise...and it really doesn't matter where the center goes...so all this focus on it's gonna turn...it's not gonna turn...it's here...it's there...is really just fun discussion but in the long run the results are really the same. Why? The pressure gradient is what is going to cause most of the wind on the west side of this thing, not convective bands. As wxman said...there will be a wall there...a wall of shear in the upper levels at least....and a wall of dry (drier) air. That will limit convection on the west side.

So I am sorry you won't get that much rain...but for those who want the TS force winds (you know who you are... )...you should get it on the coast due to the high to the north and the low with Noel...regardless of where it goes. Matter of fact...if you want a good strong wind...you actually should be rooting for it to move away from you a little (where ever you are)...because by the time I think the center gets to FL or off the coast...I think the center will be a little broad.

That is all...continue with the previous bickering on where it really is and where it is going.

Just in case you missed this informative post by AFM earlier, here it is. A lot of the students were all excited today because there was talk of shutting schools down if the winds get over 40 mph because of the busses. I had to break it to them that there will be school tomorrow. ( I hate to make up the days anyway.) Sorry guys, this is going to create a blustery day and be a beach problem. I truly don't see what all the hype is about. It is about as bad as Ernesto. If people hear about a "Gale Warning" they'll figure it out real quick. No need for a Tropical Storm Watch/ Warning at this time. It makes for a lot of "what ifs" though doesn't it? Listen to what the Pro Mets are saying very carefully.

Eric

Even though I am no longer in public school, I would argue that 40+mph winds is an imminent danger to high profile vehicles like school buses!

[cycloneye]

Very close to the southern coast.

[destruction92]

[img] http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL [/img]

HWRF now shows Noel a LOT closer to the Florida coastline now....BAMS, FWIW, shows Noel making a nose dive into the Caribbean indefinitely.

[gatorcane]

folks lets talk about the possibility it emerges off the Western Cuban coast over the next couple of hours into the NW Caribbean...given the fact it is not turning....yet...and Luis' radar image above.

what implications will this have?

[cpdaman]

i believe there is a difference between a gale warning and a tropical storm warning watch

a tropical storm watch or warning includes winds up to 74 miles an hour

a gale warning goes up to 54 miles an hour

also this is not going into the caribean, it has about stopped westward progression and may even be starting to relocate IMO

[NcentralFlaguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I dont see any northward progression yet

[wxman57]

folks lets talk about the possibility it emerges off the Western Cuban coast over the next couple of hours into the NW Caribbean...given the fact it is not turning....yet...and Luis' radar image above.

what implications will this have?

Won't make any difference, it'll just turn NNE from the Caribbean vs the north coast of Cuba. Track would be about the same. Effects in FL about the same.

[jaxfladude]

Wait and see.

[NcentralFlaguy]

folks lets talk about the possibility it emerges off the Western Cuban coast over the next couple of hours into the NW Caribbean...given the fact it is not turning....yet...and Luis' radar image above.

what implications will this have?

Most of the guidance shows it in the carribean before it goes back over cuba to the north than northeast, so I dont think this is unexpected at this point..haha maybe the clip5 or whatever that climatology model is will verify. lol think it has a recurve later into the gulf coast
.

[gatorcane]

water temperatures are in the mid 80s south of Cuba though...

[HURAKAN]

[destruction92]

folks lets talk about the possibility it emerges off the Western Cuban coast over the next couple of hours into the NW Caribbean...given the fact it is not turning....yet...and Luis' radar image above.

what implications will this have?

Won't make any difference, it'll just turn NNE from the Caribbean vs the north coast of Cuba. Track would be about the same. Effects in FL about the same.

Wxman57, I guess it doesn't matter anymore if Noel keeps moving west while the latest NHC forecast track projects Noel to be moving NNW now even though the advisory specifically said that Noel is moving west....hmmmm?
I guess there are some angels flying over the Florida/U.S. coastline.

But seriously, I am taking it from you that Florida is in the clear as far as direct effects from Noel.

[gatorcane]

huge blowup of convection now but a bit ENE of the center...

I am wondering what will happen when the center gets back over water?

[destruction92]

water temperatures are in the mid 80s south of Cuba though...

At this point, I don't think we should be speculating anymore...none of the pro-mets seem to be changing their minds even the slightest. It does not matter what wild card might come into play with Noel's track...the bottom line is that the core of Noel should stay at least a few hundred miles from the Florida coastline.

Who knows, maybe I am the crazy lunatic for having changed my mind!

[wxman57]

Wxman57, I guess it doesn't matter anymore if Noel keeps moving west while the latest NHC forecast track projects Noel to be moving NNW now even though the advisory specifically said that Noel is moving west....hmmmm?
I guess there are some angels flying over the Florida/U.S. coastline.

But seriously, I am taking it from you that Florida is in the clear as far as direct effects from Noel.

Just follow the convection, not the weak LLC. The center will follow the convection. It's still moving along the forecast track. And I never said there would be no "effects" in Florida, just that the effects would only be to enhance the already strong NE winds there. Basically, Noel will help to bump the winds up from the current 25-35 mph to 35-45 mph (offshore and at the beaches). But because there won't likely be any squalls moving inland, the inland winds will be a lot lower than on the coast. Not your typical TS effects.

[Evil Jeremy]

The pro mets here arent even giving this storm the chance to come within 50 miles of the SE FL coast line.

[NcentralFlaguy]

maybe because it probably wont.