Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[robbielyn]

maybe the spanish mets are not subject to the NHC and can really say what is happening. Why is it anyway that there is an official agency to answer to? Doctors may have to answer to the AMA but they many times give their professional diagnosis without defering to the AMA. Why can't mets as long as they really are experts in the field and have the Seal and give their professional opinion without defering to the NHC? Why does the NHC have the final say? Just curious that is all. No disrespect intended.

[gatorcane]

Here is the latest WV loop showing the shortwave over Texas. It's still heading ESE.....will it make it in time?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[jlauderdal]

maybe the spanish mets are not subject to the NHC and can really say what is happening. Why is it anyway that there is an official agency to answer to? Doctors may have to answer to the AMA but they many times give their professional diagnosis without defering to the AMA. Why can't mets as long as they really are experts in the field and have the Seal and give their professional opinion without defering to the NHC? Why does the NHC have the final say? Just curious that is all. No disrespect intended.

i have seen them question nhc and give an opinion, not often but i have seen it, roland steadham in miami used to do it and so did kamal(no kamal jokes please)

[gatorcane]

It looks still to be heading west...
You can defenitley tell there is shear though, with all the convection off to the NE.

its really not getting that sheared (yet)....

[wzrgirl1]

i can't believe it's only a 35 knot storm....looks healthier then that

[gatorcane]

W PALM BEACH MOCLDY 80 69 69 E23G31 29.96S
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTCLDY 81 69 67 NE22G31 29.92S
FT LAUDERDALE MOCLDY 83 68 60 NE25G33 29.90S
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 78 69 73 NE23G33 29.93S
PEMBROKE PINES MOCLDY 81 69 67 NE23G37 29.94S
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 82 70 66 NE28G37 29.91S
MIAMI CLOUDY 82 69 64 NE21G29 29.90S
MIAMI BEACH N/A 81 73 78 NE37G44 29.88S
WEST KENDALL CLOUDY 81 69 67 NE21G32 29.89S
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 76 73 89 NE17G32 29.89S

[robbielyn]

maybe the spanish mets are not subject to the NHC and can really say what is happening. Why is it anyway that there is an official agency to answer to? Doctors may have to answer to the AMA but they many times give their professional diagnosis without defering to the AMA. Why can't mets as long as they really are experts in the field and have the Seal and give their professional opinion without defering to the NHC? Why does the NHC have the final say? Just curious that is all. No disrespect intended.

i have seen them question nhc and give an opinion, not often but i have seen it, roland steadham in miami used to do it and so did kamal(no kamal jokes please)

I guess what I mean is during the forecast even if it is obvious the nhc is wrong at that moment, mets still have to say the "official forecast track ......... I just wonder why they have the final say as it were. Can't they say, the storm track has shifted way east of the forecast track in the last few hours based on their expertise instead of waiting for the NHC to put out the adjusted track? That's all I was wondering.

[wzrgirl1]

i do think we should have a specific thread for south florida conditions....it's windy as heck here

[msbee]

thanks Luis
I think it will be OK too but these airlines can get very easily panicked too LOL

[ericinmia]

12z FSU mm5 shows a nice long stall, but doesn't intesify the storm at all...

[robbielyn]

Someone on here said earlier that you'll get the winds you want just not the rain. Well it's not the same. It doesn't have the same feel as a tropical storm. It feels more like a fall event where old man winter is trying to make an entrance, cool strong winds with no rains feels like fall not a ts.

[caneman]

18Z UKMET has a close call and stronger system

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[hellplanet]

This is sad and funny, but Noel is the 4th strongest storm in terms of ACE this year for the Atlantic.

Everyone expects every year to be 2004 and 2005. Sometimes its just...average. For all of us who get worked to the bone when its not: Thank God.

That's because there will be so many years like them. Some years will even be worse than 2005. There will also be floods, droughts, fires and famine. Many will perish.

[Bgator]

I just had a tropical downpour, it felt like a tropical storm was near. My power actually flickered...FPL stinks

[wzrgirl1]

yup it's getting nasty...

[cycloneye]

i do think we should have a specific thread for south florida conditions....it's windy as heck here

Go to the top of forum to the threat thread.Members are posting about Floridas observations and posting webcams.

[wzrgirl1]

k thanks....wasn't sure if i could post there because it doesn't list south florida...although i think it should because it's going to get quite nasty around here for a couple of days...people will lose power from these winds

[jlauderdal]

maybe the spanish mets are not subject to the NHC and can really say what is happening. Why is it anyway that there is an official agency to answer to? Doctors may have to answer to the AMA but they many times give their professional diagnosis without defering to the AMA. Why can't mets as long as they really are experts in the field and have the Seal and give their professional opinion without defering to the NHC? Why does the NHC have the final say? Just curious that is all. No disrespect intended.

i have seen them question nhc and give an opinion, not often but i have seen it, roland steadham in miami used to do it and so did kamal(no kamal jokes please)

I guess what I mean is during the forecast even if it is obvious the nhc is wrong at that moment, mets still have to say the "official forecast track ......... I just wonder why they have the final say as it were. Can't they say, the storm track has shifted way east of the forecast track in the last few hours based on their expertise instead of waiting for the NHC to put out the adjusted track? That's all I was wondering.

honestly,the last thing we need is a whole bunch of tracks being put out on tv, its fine for places like this but the general public has a tough enough time dealing with one official track let alone the media throwing out their own stuff. i have noticed the local media putting up the global models on tv and explaining it to some degree but its confusing most people, i hear it at work.

[Vortex]

Just recorded a gust to 41mph here on Fort Lauderdale Beach...Highest yet today...

[Weatherboy1]

Here is the latest WV loop showing the shortwave over Texas. It's still heading ESE.....will it make it in time?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

I forget who it is that taught me the general rule of thumb, but essentially it said that tropical systems start to feel the influence of approaching troughs at about 10 degrees and really get steered by them once they get within 8 degrees of lat/long of them. Seems like this one's going to be a pretty close call for FL though I do believe the center of Noel will stay offshore.