Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[canegrl04]

GFS has the best read on development this season,and storm track.Wherever they see this going ,I will trust that they are right

[DESTRUCTION5]

fci I do believe that Destruction5 means that this system will go west for quite some time...some of the local meteorologists in So Fla think so as well siting that there will be no trough to pick this thing up for a while. And yes a N Carolina S Carolina move would make more sense but Fla cannot be discarded quite as of yet. Just being cautious until a definte pattern of movement is made.

VERY, very valid reasoning by you and others.

I just find it so unlikely that a system would strenghten to a Storm and travel due west from this location to threaten South Florida
Don't think it has happened before.
(ALso don't think that a TD had ever strengthened over Oklahoma before until yesterday- see Erin).

Due west now would take it to Cuba..im sure there will be some WNW involved here in the next few days..

[vaffie]

Unfortunately not a single ship or buoy report within 250 miles available yet.

[gatorcane]

FCI -

I don't understand your logic. Both Katrina and Andrew moved west and hit Florida from even farther north than this thing is now.

Florida is clearly a possible place for this to go so we need to watch this system closely here in South Florida.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes that High pressure is still in place and could push this system westward.

[gatorcane]

Few comments:
- Deep easterly flow in SE FLorida is being enhanced by the gradient between the high and Dean to the south. Not sure if this is solely due to strong high pressure.

- This is shown to be at about 22 and 54 VERY far North to really come to SE Florida.

- A WNW track would bring 92L to the Carolinas which makes more climatological sense than SE Florida.

- Since Andrew, Frances and Jeanne have been mentioned, I looked up how far west they were when they were at 22N

Andrew- about 61.0
Frances- about 71.0
Jeanne-72.2

92L is at about 54!

If this initializes further south or until there is more consensus than just the CMC, there is a lot of convincing to do to get me on board a threat for SE Florida!!!

The more likely movement is WNW for the next couple of days then a bend to the west or even WSW once the Bermuda High builds in.....that would put the EC of Florida at risk.

[fci]

FCI -

I don't understand your logic. Both Katrina and Andrew moved west and hit Florida from even farther north than this thing is now.

Florida is clearly a possible place for this to go so we need to watch this system closely here in South Florida.

Chris:
See my earlier post.
Andrew and Katrina were well west of 92L when they were as far north as 22.

[N2FSU]

NWS Discussion out of Tallahassee at 1:30pm today mentions this feature:

.LONG TERM...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST,
THANKS TO ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICS. A TROPICAL WAVE NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC. WE HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS
SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS THE FEATURE TO FL BY WED NIGHT INTO
THU MORNING, WITH A WEAK LOW CENTER AIMING AT THE KEYS. THE LATEST
(00Z MON) ECMWF BRINGS THIS SYSTEM WWD MORE SLOWLY, WITH THE LOW
CIRCULATION FURTHER TO THE N, PASSING N OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT.
STAY TUNED. THE PERIOD WILL START OUT HOT AND DRY ON THU, THEN WE
SHOW A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN POP, WITH NEAR CLIMO POPS BY SUN
WHEN THE GFS SHOWS YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FL FROM THE
E AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO DIXIE FROM THE NW.

[gatorcane]

let me show you how the 1947 Lake Okeechobie storm hit Palm Beach County...notice how it moved near the area this invest is in now:

[gatorcane]

How about the 1935 FL Keys Labor Day Hurricane:

[gatorcane]

Look how far north Andrew got before it bent to the west:

[fci]

fci I do believe that Destruction5 means that this system will go west for quite some time...some of the local meteorologists in So Fla think so as well siting that there will be no trough to pick this thing up for a while. And yes a N Carolina S Carolina move would make more sense but Fla cannot be discarded quite as of yet. Just being cautious until a definte pattern of movement is made.

VERY, very valid reasoning by you and others.

I just find it so unlikely that a system would strenghten to a Storm and travel due west from this location to threaten South Florida
Don't think it has happened before.
(ALso don't think that a TD had ever strengthened over Oklahoma before until yesterday- see Erin).

Due west now would take it to Cuba..im sure there will be some WNW involved here in the next few days..

Extrapolated it would be the northern tip of Cuba if it went due West.
Much more north of due west and it would miss South Florida.
It is about 25 degrees east and only 5 degrees south of Southeast Florida.

[gatorcane]

FCI how about this track that hit South Florida in 1929. Look how north it got first before bending west.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like there is some debate here on where this system would go...
I'll watch it just in case.

[Buck]

This could do anything really... even be a rare Georgia landfall... one has been long overdue.

[storms in NC]

From what I read here it will open a place in the ridge for it to go NW by Wed and Thursday. For a cold front is to come though. It should go to the front. Then colse back up.
Or did I miss read it.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND CAROLINAS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT
LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
90S MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POWERFUL 2-3 FT/13S SE SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CAROLINA COAST
AS OF 06Z. WW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SWELL PERIOD GETTING SHORTER
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT 4 FT EVERY 11S IS STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT.
OTHER FACTORS IN PLAY INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSTRUCTIVE
INTERFERENCE BETWEEN THE SWELL AND SSW WIND WAVE...AND A FALLING
TIDE IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN BEACH POPULATION IS
TYPICALLY HIGHEST.

LOCAL RIP FORECASTING SCHEME ONLY SUGGESTS HIGH RISK ON THE
BRUNSWICK COUNTY BEACHES...AND KEEPS SC BEACHES LOW. HOWEVER...IN
LIGHT OF ENOUGH METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS AND REPORTS OF 50+
RIP-RELATED RESCUES ON HORRY COUNTY BEACHES SUNDAY...WILL CARRY HIGH
RISK FOR ALL MY BEACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS SC/GA AND WILL
KEEP THE CAROLINAS IN THE BLAST FURNACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DECENT INVERSION EXTENDING DOWN TO 750MB AND QUITE A BIT OF
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GENERATE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER...LET ALONE CONVECTION.

LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST MAX TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE ONE ALMOST SURE THING IN THIS FORECAST IS
THAT MAV GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM...AS IT HAS BEEN MOST OF THE SUMMER.
BASED ON THESE TRENDS MAX TEMPS INLAND SHOULD REACH 98-99
DEGREES...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S. DEEP
MIXING WILL BRING INLAND DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER OR MID
60S...WHICH TRANSLATES TO HEAT INDICES JUST BELOW CRITERIA
CWA-WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE INTO ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL TURN
THE MID LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW A WEAK COLD
FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
TIMING AND EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST NAM MODEL
RUN IS ACTUALLY THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT AND THE NEW GFS IS THE
SLOWEST...COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ETA
ENSEMBLE (SREF) MEAN AND THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A COMPROMISE ON TIMING AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THIS FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER (POPS LESS THAN 5%) IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WARM DRY AIR CAPPING ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN NC...WITH SIMILAR CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY IN THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.

TEMPERATURES WILL UNFORTUNATELY REMAIN QUITE WARM - MID TO UPPER
90S ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE HEAT
INDEX ON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH 105 DEGREES (HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA) ON WEDNESDAY IF DEWPOINTS CAN HOLD AT OR ABOVE 70 ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD. INITIALLY CENTERED TO
OUR WEST THIS FEATURE WILL ELONGATE TO THE NE THURSDAY AND THEN
REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE PD. ABV CLIMO
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. SUCH A PATTERN DOES NOT
PARTICULARLY BODE WELL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY THURSDAY THE
CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL HAVE RETROGRADED FAR ENOUGH TO
THE WEST THAT ITS PRECIP-SUPPRESSING INFLUENCE WILL HAVE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME WOULD IMPLY THAT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL SCT CONVECTION.&&

[windstorm99]

This is no feature for the next couple of days that will cause this area to turn away and from what ive seen high pressure should basically keep this area moving W-WNW towards bahamas/florida for the next couple of days.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a link to the Hurricane Betsy plot...the only storm that I can remember would be close to 92l that also had a similar, not exactly the same, but similar high pressure regime over it

Click here for the link.

[gtsmith]

Ptarmigan wrote:
Invest 92L is not a priority for now due to Dean. We can worry when it becomes a TD.

then why are you even in this thread??? this thread is to discuss 92L...if Dean is your concern then stay in the Dean thread...jeez

[windstorm99]

NHC-2:05 Discussion

A LARGE AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W
SOUTH OF 28N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 20/0930
UTC SHOWED THE WAVE AXIS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN
53W-63W...AND ALSO FURTHER S JUST E/SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S
OF 15N TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST BETWEEN 55W-62W.